Notts County approached this season as a side meaning serious business. They were coming off the back of a disappointing and fairly controversial play-off defeat in 2017-18 and clearly wanted to make that next step.
I don’t think it is unfair to say they threw a fair bit of money at bringing in players with tried and tested records in League Two or even higher yet as we approach the 20 game mark they sit mired in a relegation dogfight. So what has gone wrong?
Under Kevin Nolan the Magpies had an excellent start to the 2017-18 season losing just three games by Boxing Day but inconsistency from January onwards saw them slowly slip out of automatic promotion contention and instead have to settle for a play-off berth.
What happened in the play-offs has been well documented but I think everyone agrees that referees and officials should never have such a negative bearing on the most important game of a club’s season especially after a 46 game slog to get that far.
Nevertheless, the County went into the summer still in League Two and looking to regroup. A host of new signings were brought in and some of the older heads left as Nolan began his rebuild.
The recruitment on paper looked excellent with strikers Kane Hemmings and Kristian Dennis being drafted in from Oxford and Chesterfield respectively the latter for a considerable undisclosed fee. Exciting wingers Enzio Boldewijn and Nathan Thomas arrived along with young midfielder Will Patching and experienced campaigner David Vaughan to add to a squad that already contained some talented individuals.
Despite this, there was an underlying problem that became apparent very quickly into the new season with a lack of midfield grit and a defence more porous than a Swiss cheese umbrella in a monsoon.
Nolan was sacked after four defeats in the first five games and replaced by Harry Kewell who was also sacked just 10 weeks later turning the club into something of a circus. Neal Ardley has now been appointed to take the club forward and with the exception of Macclesfield, the only way is up.
🤝 | We are delighted to confirm the appointment of Neal Ardley as our new first-team manager! pic.twitter.com/WXQW7aIWnM
— Notts County FC (@Official_NCFC) November 23, 2018
Ardley arrives having guided AFC Wimbledon to League One and kept them there against fairly big odds considering the size of the club’s budget. In my opinion, for what it’s worth, he is an excellent appointment but he has a mammoth task on his hands if County are to avoid the most unlikely of relegations.
What does Neal Ardley have to do to turn Notts County around?
The first thing the former Wimbledon manager will need to address is the appalling state of the Magpies defence. Time after time they have been caught out by the most basic of balls into the box and bread and butter defensive work has been in shockingly short supply. Notts County have conceded 40 goals in just 19 games at the time of writing with all but two of those coming from inside the box – just shocking especially considering they only conceded 48 in the entire 2017-18 season.
They have shown time and again this season that any decent ball into the box will likely lead to a goal. Defending set pieces had also been a problem with six goals being directly conceded from set-piece situations including Morecambe’s late equaliser in the relegation six-pointer at the Globe Arean this weekend.
They have also allowed a total of 261 shots against while taking 194 themselves. This is not that worrying in itself but coupled with the ease in which County are conceding it actually speaks volumes.
The quality of their shots that they are giving up will be the most pressing thing Neal Ardley must address. They are so open down the middle that clubs are just walking the ball into their box. This graphical representation shows the shot map of Notts County’s own shots versus the ones they are giving up. The contrast is quite stark.
The density of shots being allowed from central positions and within the County box alludes to some real problems that need to be dealt with swiftly.
Ardley will likely play a more conservative system with three in the middle of the park which could help stem the tide on a beleaguered defence. He will also employ a more direct approach which could see the likes of Kristian Dennis and Kane Hemmings play more to their strengths but will require players to get closer to them to prevent them becoming isolated figures, something that has happened all too often this season.
The defence may not be as problematic as first glance suggests. The defenders have made a lower than average number of defensive challenges which is a concern but that may be more due to the system leaving them open rather than them just being poorer defensive players than some of their League Two counterparts.
The importance of Enzio Boldewijn cannot be ignored. The winger has been at the heart of any positive play, rare though it may have been, that the Magpies have put together. The Dutchman leads the team in chances created (19), accurate crosses (16), key passes (17), successful dribbles (53) and shots on target (13). His ability to curl the ball home from distance has been one of the few highlights to a drab 2018 for County fans.
If Ardley can utilise Boldewijn in a system that also keeps things tighter at the back then it results should pick up.
He will have some time to assess things as the former Wimbledon boss is set to take charge in December and is also likely to be putting together a shortlist of potential signings that could reinforce a side already replete with a plethora of attacking talent.
The fact that a manager with Neal Ardley’s pedigree took the job in the first place tells you that he clearly feels he can get the club out of trouble especially considering there are a number of weaker sides in League Two this season without the resources available to Notts County.
He still has plenty of work to do but fans of the club should be reassured that they now have a manager in charge with a tried and tested track record but also a healthy dose of pragmatism; after all delusions of grandeur don’t sit well in relegation battles.
words James Richards, D3D4 Football
To top the shit storm, today Notts announced Enzio will be out for three months by knee injury. That’s a heavy blow. One thing not mentioned on the article and that Notts is lacking in leadership. I think the departure of guys like O’Connor, Smith and Ameobi impacted heavily in that regard. Other think I believe the club needs is a proper defensive midfielder. A few months ago, Karl Henry was rumored to come, but nothing happened and now he is committed to a League One club. Well, the first impression of Ardley after his first interviews is positive. I just hope he brings results. At least to keep the club at Football League.