As we approach the business end of the season predicting the results gets harder and harder. With sides fighting for their lives at the bottom it is not uncommon to see a few shocks crop up. With that in mind here is our latest offering for League Two…
BURY v MACCLESFIELD
o Bury have lost just one of their last 12 league games against Macclesfield Town (W6 D5), a 2-0 loss away from home in March 2010.
o Macclesfield have never won an away game at Bury in the Football League (D3 L6), although they have scored three goals in their last two visits, as many in their first seven beforehand.
o Bury are unbeaten in 10 league games (W7 D3), last going 11 without defeat in November 2009.
o 17 of Macclesfield’s 30 League Two points this season have been won in their 14 games under Sol Campbell since December 2018 (W4 D5 L5), having picked up just 13 points in 20 games before his arrival.
o Bury have scored more League Two goals in the second half of their games alone this season (42) than Macclesfield have managed overall (35 – 18 first half, 17 second half)
Our view
Nathan Cameron will return to a warm reception at Gigg Lane this weekend when the Silkmen face high flying Bury. His efforts have been part of the reason why Sol Campbell’s side have been able to claw themselves within striking distance of safety though it is hard to see them closing the gap in this one.
Bury have mauled far better teams into submission than Macclesfield and they should continue their high octain football in this one.
PREDICTION: 3-0 Bury
CREWE v NORTHAMPTON
o Crewe have only lost one of their last 11 home Football League games against Northampton (W6 D4), a 3-1 defeat in third tier in October 2008.
o Northampton are unbeaten in their last four League Two meetings with Crewe (W2 D2), winning the reverse fixture 2-0 in November.
o Crewe’s 1-2 defeat to Exeter last time out ended their five-game winning streak at home in League Two; they last lost back-to-back home games in the competition in March 2018 – when Exeter were the first of those two defeats, also by a 1-2 scoreline.
o Northampton have won as many of their 17 away league games this season (five) than they managed in all 23 such matches in League One last season, including victories in two of their last three such matches (D1).
o Northampton boss Keith Curle has won each of his last three managerial games against Crewe in League Two by an aggregate score of 8-0.
Our view
Keith Curle still needs to convince a number of Cobblers fans that he can lead the team back to the heights seen under Chris Wilder though he should be judged carefully given that he is still managing a group of players not entirely of his choosing.
They take on a Crewe side that has been excellent at Gresty Road this season and will need to watch out for star men Callum Ainley and veteran goal scorer Chris Porter.
If Crewe are to reach the play-offs then this is a must win game.
PREDICTION: 2-1 Crewe
EXETER v TRANMERE
o This fixture between Exeter and Tranmere has only seen two draws in the previous 21 Football League encounters, with Exeter winning six and losing 13.
o Exeter have lost just one of their last five home league games against Tranmere (W2 D2), although that loss came in the last such encounter between the two sides in January 2015.
o Exeter lost 0-1 to Bury in their last home league game; they haven’t lost back-to-back such matches since October 2017.
o Tranmere have won three of their last four league games (D1), as many as their previous 13 combined beforehand (W3 D3 L7).
o League Two top scorer James Norwood (22 goals) has scored five of Tranmere’s last seven league goals.
Our view
This should be a mouth watering game if only for the potential ramifications for the winners and losers. Exeter want to keep themselves ahead of the Birkenhead club who could draw level with the Grecians if they win.
James Norwood leads the line superbly and is ably backed up by Connor Jennings, Ben Pringle and Kieron Morris. Exeter have a very strong midfeild with Jake Taylor and Nick Law so the central battle could be decisive.
This one is too hard to predict so some old fashioned fence sitting is in order.
PREDICTION: 1-1 draw
FOREST GREEN v LINCOLN
o Forest Green have lost each of their three League Two games against Lincoln; only against Colchester and Swindon have they lost as many games in the Football League.
o Lincoln’s only previous League Two visit to the New Lawn was a 1-0 win in September 2017, Harry Anderson netting a second half winner.
o Forest Green have lost three of their last four league games (W1), as many as their previous 13 combined prior to this (W7 D3 L3).
o Lincoln’s 11-match unbeaten run in the league is League Two’s longest ongoing such streak, however the Imps have drawn seven of those (W4), including five of their last six (W1).
o Six of Lincoln City’s last seven league goals have been scored by Bruno Andrade; he had scored just five goals in his first 80 appearances in the EFL before netting these six in his last five.
Our view
Danny Cowley has an excellent record against Forest Green but this season has seen the Green Devils make big improvements on last season’s struggles.
Mark Cooper will have to get back to winning ways quickly if his side are not to be replaced in the top seven though beating Lincoln is no small task.
Exeter ran the Imps close mid-week and relied on a late Akinde equaliser to earn them a point and it could be a few more added to the collection this weekend.
PREDICTION: 2-1 Lincoln
GRIMSBY v CAMBRIDGE
o Grimsby have only lost two of their 15 home games against Cambridge United in the Football League (W9 D4), losing just one of the last 10 (W5 D4).
o Cambridge have failed to score on seven of their last 10 visits to Blundell Park in the top four tiers of English football, scoring just one goal in their last three trips.
o Grimsby have won nine of their last 12 home league matches (D1 L2), keeping clean sheets in eight of those.
o Only Notts County (10) have picked up fewer points away from home in League Two this season than Cambridge United (11), with the U’s losing eight of their last nine league games on the road (W1).
o Grimsby’s Luke Hendrie has had a hand in three goals in his last five league appearances (one goal, two assists), more than he was in his first 68 appearances in the Football League beforehand (one goals, one assist).
Our view
Grimsby come into this game on a run on six unbeaten with one eye still on the play-offs. Cambridge have slumped back into the relegation dog-fight and could probably do without a trip to Blundell Park.
Wes Thomas has been the man scoring the goals but a midfield pairing of Jake Hessenthaler and Elliot Embleton work very well together. A decent point at Swindon will give them confidence against a Cambridge side really lacking in goals.
PREDICTION: 2-0 Grimsby
MANSFIELD v CHELTENHAM
o Five of the last seven league encounters between Mansfield and Cheltenham have ended level, with both sides also picking up a win apiece in this time.
o Mansfield ended a five-game winless streak at home to Cheltenham in League Two with a win in January 2018 (D2 L3); they haven’t won successive home games against the Robins in the Football League since April 2002.
o Mansfield have won each of their last four home league games, last winning five on the bounce in February 2018 – a run which included a 3-2 win against Cheltenham.
o Cheltenham have lost each of their last four league matches away from home without scoring a single goal; they last lost five in a row on their travels in League Two in April 2012 (six straight defeats).
o Tyler Walker has been directly involved in seven of Mansfield’s last 13 league goals, scoring six and assisting one.
Our view
Mansfield will eye up this home match with hope of stamping their authority on the top three. They had to settle for a single goal to beat Forest Green last time out and will be hoping for a more convincing performance against another Gloucestershire side.
Cheltenham are not out of the woods yet and need a few more points to be sure of safety though a trip to Field Mill feels like a free hit given the Stags home form.
PREDICTION: 2-0 Mansfield
MILTON KEYNES v CRAWLEY
o Each of the five victories in the seven EFL games between MK Dons and Crawley have been won by a two-goal margin or greater, three for MK Dons and two for Crawley (D2).
o After scoring just two goals in their first four Football League meetings with Crawley, MK Dons have since scored eight goals in their last three (W2 D1).
o MK Dons have won three consecutive games in League Two, their second longest winning streak of the season after their five-match streak in October 2018.
o Crawley have won just one of their last eight league games (D3 L4), a 1-0 win at Swindon in January.
o MK Dons’ Kieran Agard has been directly involved in five goals in his five league appearances against Crawley Town (four goals, one assist); only against Swindon (five) has he netted more goals in the Football League.
Our view
This might look like a banker on paper given MK Don’s recent run but Crawley have equited themselves very well on the road against the divisions top teams.
They won a Sincil Bank and took a point from Gigg Lane. They will need to show the same levels of concentration that they did in both those matches and hope Ollie Palmer can nick a goal.
Paul Tisdale’s side will be very confident of another three points in this one following a convincing display against Newport, however, they might find the Red Devils a trickier opponent than they think.
PREDICTION: 1-1 draw
NEWPORT v CARLISLE
o Since winning five successive league meetings between November 2014 and November 2016 against Carlisle, Newport are winless in their last four (D2 L2).
o Newport have lost just one of their last eight home league games versus Carlisle (W5 D2), enjoying a current unbeaten such run of four (W3 D1).
o Newport County have lost back-to-back home games in all competitions, last losing more in a row at Rodney Parade in December 2016 (five straight losses).
o Carlisle are winless in their last four league games (D2 L2), last going longer without victory in League Two in September 2017 (five games).
o All four of Newport forward Padraig Amond’s league goals against Carlisle have come at Brunton Park; he has failed to score in any of his last five home league games for Newport.
Our view
The Exiles face a Carlisle side that have been unable to keep their strong form going. Following eight wins in nine they have gone four without victory and heading to Rodney Parade will be a daunting prospect.
Newport have had a good season though efforts in the cup may well have hampered their chase for the play-offs. Home form, though, has been very good with only three teams taking maximum points home from south Wales this season and the Cumbrians might head back north empty handed.
PREDICTION: 1-0 Newport
NOTTS COUNTY v PORT VALE
o Notts County have won four of their last five home league games against Port Vale (L1), winning 1-0 in this exact fixture last season.
o Port Vale have managed only one victory in their last six games against Notts County in the league (D1 L4), however this win did come at Meadow Lane in February 2015.
o Notts County have lost their last two league games having won both of the two beforehand; they last lost three in a row in October 2018, a run of defeats which they ended with a draw against Port Vale (2-2).
o Port Vale have lost six of their last seven games in all competitions (D1) since a 1-0 win at Crawley in January.
o Whilst Port Vale have lost a joint-low four points from leading positions in League Two this season (level with Swindon Town), Notts County have lost a league-high 24 points after going ahead in the division in 2018-19.
Our view
Games don’t come much bigger than this though it may all be too late for Notts County who found out this week that their chairman’s company had gone into administration.
On the pitch they appear to have regressed following an impressive derby victory over Mansfield. Defeat to Newport and Tranmere has left them with a lot to do as games run out.
Port Vale are also in a sorry state with the fans angry at the owner for allowing the team to slump to the very precipice of relegation. Hard to pick a winner here but given Vale’s lack of goals it could be decided by a single strike.
PREDICTION: 1-0 Notts County
OLDHAM v STEVENAGE
o There have only been four goals scored in three league games between Oldham and Stevenage at Boundary Park, with both sides scoring two goals and picking up a win each (D1).
o Oldham have won three of the last four league contests against Stevenage (L1), however they did lose the reverse fixture in November, Stevenage winning 3-2.
o Oldham have lost back-to-back league games, and last lost three in a row in the fourth tier of English football back in December 1969 (five straight losses).
o Stevenage have only won one of their last five league matches (D1 L3) and are looking to avoid losing consecutive such games for the first time since December 2018.
o Of the 72 clubs in the EFL, only Aston Villa (22) and Sheffield United (16) have scored more headed league goals in 2018-18 than Stevenage (15), including Alex Revell’s goal against Northampton last time out.
Our view
Paul Scholes has had a bad week at Oldham with defeats to Morecambe and Bury but another home game in quick succession is the ideal tonic to work through the frustrations.
Dino Maarmia has urged his Boro to keep their focus with a play-off spot still within their grasp. Three games without a win have put a dent in those ambitions but with the Latics off the boil it is the perfect time to reignite dreams of promotion.
PREDICTION: 2-1 Stevenage
SWINDON v COLCHESTER
o Swindon have won only one of their last eight home league games against Colchester (D3 L4) and are without a win in five such matches (D2 L3).
o Colchester have kept clean sheets in each of their last two league games against Swindon, as many as they had kept in their previous 11 meetings beforehand.
o Swindon are looking to go four league games without defeat for the first time since September 2018 (five games).
o Colchester are unbeaten in their last four league matches (W2 D2), last going five without a loss in February 2018
o Only Lincoln City (22) have scored more goals from set-piece scenarios in League Two this season than Colchester United (18), despite 10 of the U’s last 11 league goals coming from open play (one penalty).
Our view
This is a really interesting game between two sides with plenty to play for. Richie Wellens will still believe his Town can reach the top seven as others falter. Colchester have bounced back from a poor run to head into this one four unbeaten.
Winning here would be massive but a point is the minimum the U’s require if they are to keep their promotion fate in their own hands.
The Robins are starting to play the kind of football that has fans excited but they must learn to take thier chances when on top.
PREDICTION: 1-1 draw
YEOVIL v MORECAMBE
o Yeovil Town have lost five of their seven League Two encounters with Morecambe (W1 D1), conceding in each contest (16 goals conceded in total).
o Morecambe are unbeaten in their three visits to Yeovil in League Two (D1 L2), drawing 2-2 in their last trip in September 2017.
o Yeovil ended a six-game losing streak by beating Cambridge last time out; they have only won consecutive league games twice this season – a run of three straight wins in September 2018 and back-to-back victories in January.
o Morecambe are unbeaten in five away league games (W2 D3), winning their last two. They last won three straight away matches in League Two in September 2016.
o Kevin Ellison has scored five goals in his seven League Two appearances against Yeovil Town for Morecambe, including scoring in each of his three at Huish Park for the Shrimps (three goals).
Our view
Morecambe have made relegation six-pointers their bread and butter. The perennial League Two survivors face a Glovers side looking for back-to-back home wins for the first time this season.
Darren Way will have been relieved to finally bag the points when his team beat Cambridge at Huish Park last weekend. It gives them some breathing space but there is a lot more work to be done before safety is assured.
With Morecambe’s record against sides in an around them you’d have to be brave to back against them.
PREDICTION: 1-0 Morecambe
words James Richards, D3D4 Football