The games are coming so quickly right now as the season enters the home straight, here’s my take on Saturday’s vital fixtures.
SCUNTHORPE UNITED v DONCASTER ROVERS
o Scunthorpe have won just two of their 15 home league games against Doncaster (D5 L8), although one of these wins came as recently as March 2016.
o Since losing three successive games between December 2015 and September 2017 to Scunthorpe, Doncaster are unbeaten in their last five in all competitions against the Iron (W3 D2).
o Scunthorpe have taken 10 points from their last four League One games at Glanford Park (W3 D1 L0), as many as in their first 12 combined this season (W2 D4 L6).
o Since the start of the 2016-17 season, John Marquis has scored 58 league goals for Doncaster Rovers – 38 more than any other player for the club in that time.
o Doncaster’s 38-year-old midfielder James Coppinger is the only League One player to register double figures for assists this season (12 in total).
Our view
Saturday’s early fixture sees these two on form neighbours lock horns in this derby clash at Glanford Park. Last weekend’s surprise defeat by Gillingham was only Scunny’s second loss in nine games & Stuart McCall & his staff have already done more than enough to ensure that the Iron will take their League One place in August after looking candidates for the drop in the first few months of the season.
Grant McCann’s promotion contenders bowed out of the FA Cup after a battling but ultimately unsuccessful performance against Premier League Palace last time out but their Cup heroics haven’t had a detrimental effect on their excellent recent League form which has seen them beaten only once in their last seven games.
A full house & terrific atmosphere in Lincolnshire should see a competitive encounter in which Donny will win narrowly.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v SOUTHEND UNITED
o Accrington have only kept one clean sheet in their 11 league contests against Southend – a 1-0 win at Roots Hall in August 2012.
o Southend are unbeaten in their last four trips to Accrington since losing on their first visit in April 2011 (W2 D2).
o Accrington have scored six goals in their last two League One matches – as many as they managed in their previous 12 games combined.
o Southend United striker Simon Cox has scored 13 League One goals this season – six more than any other Shrimpers player.
o Only Walsall (0) have taken fewer points across their last five League One matches than Southend (2).
Our view
Chris Powell takes his mid-table Shrimpers on the long trip north to face Accy with his side winless in their last five games. He will take encouragement however in his team’s remarkable comeback from 3-0 down to draw with promotion contenders Pompey thanks to Simon Cox’s amazing hat trick.
Stanley addressed their worrying dip in form by gaining their first three-point haul in eight after convincingly beating Oxford 4-2 in midweek in an exciting game which should spur John Coleman’s side to another victory here.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
AFC WIMBLEDON v CHARLTON ATHLETIC
o AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten in their three home games in all competitions against Charlton (W2 D1), winning each of the last two.
o Charlton have only won one of their last 14 London derbies away from home in the league (D4 L9), a 2-1 win against Brentford in March 2016.
o AFC Wimbledon have lost just two of their 12 London derbies at home in the Football League (W5 D5), unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2).
o Charlton have failed to score in three of their last four League One games (W0 D3 L1) after having failed to score in just three of their first 29 league games this season.
o AFC Wimbledon are looking to win three consecutive league matches for the first time since a run of five in April 2016.
Our view
Successive wins over relegation rivals Walsall & Rochdale have given bottom side Dons a glimmer of hope in their battle against the dreaded drop. Tuesday night’s remarkable 4-3 victory at Spotland where Wally Downes’ men came from behind twice thanks to a Joe Pigott hat trick showed just the level of fight & commitment necessary if their “great escape” attempt is to continue.
The fifth-placed Addicks look well positioned to take their place in the play-offs but Lee Bowyer will have worries over his talented team’s recent four-game winless run so a trip to tiny Kingsmeadow to face a fired up Dons side will be a difficult away day for them.
PREDICTION NO SCORE DRAW
BLACKPOOL v OXFORD UNITED
o Blackpool have only lost one of their 14 home league meetings against Oxford (W9 D4), a 2-1 loss in January 1980.
o Oxford have won each of their last two League One games against Blackpool, however both of those have come at the Kassam, scoring three and conceding none.
o Blackpool’s League One matches this season have seen fewer goals than any other team (62 – 34 scored, 28 conceded).
o Oxford United’s 17-game winless away league run (W0 D7 L10) is their longest in the Football League since a run of 18 games between November 1996 and September 1997.
o Oxford United have benefitted from seven substitute goals in League One this season – only Doncaster Rovers have scored more goals via subs (nine)
Our view
Depending on the legal processes the long-suffering Pool fans may well “have their club back” prior to the visit of Karl Robinson’s relegation-threatened U’s on Saturday. As I understand the politics if receivers are appointed at Bloomfield Road the toxic Oyston family have no control of the club & a new board of directors would have to be appointed. Obviously the EFL will have their “Pound of flesh” as regards a points deduction for going into administration but I would provisionally offer my congratulations to the NAPM group & other affiliated BFC protest groups & desperately hope they achieve their aim of ridding their football club of the poisonous overlords that has blighted the Tangerines for so many years. Despite all the off-field shenanigans Terry McPhillips has assembled a really good competitive side who lie just outside the play-offs five points shy of sixth place & are well placed for a late-season charge towards the top six but obviously, any points deduction would scupper these ambitions.
As for the U’s dear oh dear. A magnificent win over Pompey has been their only success in their last ten league games & relegation is looking a probability rather than a possibility for Robinson’s dispirited troops. Encouraging draws with Barnsley & Sunderland have been forgotten at the Kassam following damaging defeats to Accy & Posh & I don’t think Oxford fans will like to be beside the seaside at 5pm on Saturday.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
BRISTOL ROVERS v SUNDERLAND
o Bristol Rovers are winless in their last four games in all competitions against Sunderland (D2 L2), last winning in February 1992 in a second-tier clash.
o Sunderland will be visiting Bristol Rovers in a league away game for the first time since February 1992, with their previous trip coming in the League Cup third round in October 2000, winning 2-1.
o 50% of the points Bristol Rovers have won in League One this season (17) have come in 11 games under Graham Coughlan (W4 D5 L2), having won 17 in 21 games under Darrell Clarke (W4 D5 L12).
o Midfielder Lee Cattermole has scored more league goals for Sunderland this season in 20 games (4) than he managed in 204 appearances across his first nine seasons at the club between 2009-10 and 2017-18 (3).
o Sunderland are the only team in the top four tiers of English football this season to have scored in every league match so far.
Our view
It seems strange to me that Mackem’s manager Jack Ross is under fire from some sections of the Black Cats support when his team have only lost TWICE in the league all season, maybe a reaction from some fans that this season hasn’t been the cakewalk they expected. The problem has been that before the welcome midweek win over Gillingham the Black Cats had drawn seven of their last nine league games, severely denting their hopes of automatic promotion.
New Gas manager Graham Coughlin has certainly had a positive effect at the Mem since taking over from Darrell Clarke, suffering only one defeat in their last ten league games & more importantly making his battling side difficult to beat as he continues to guide his team away from relegation trouble.
A full house & terrific atmosphere awaits these two draw specialists in a vital game that both sides will be desperate not to lose so I’m going for………mmmm???
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
BURTON ALBION v FLEETWOOD TOWN
o Fleetwood have won four of their last five games against Burton (L1), including a League Two play-off final win in 2014.
o After losing their first two Football League meetings at home against Fleetwood, Burton picked up their first points in a 2-1 victory in March 2016 the last time they met at the Pirelli.
o No League One side have kept more clean sheets during 2019 than Burton Albion (5).
o Fleetwood have lost the most points from winning positions (21) and are the only team yet to win a point from a losing position in League One this season.
o 59% of Fleetwood’s league goals this season (26 of 44) have been scored by either Paddy Madden (14) or Ched Evans (12).
Our view
Eleventh plays tenth in this clash of mid-table obscurity at the Pirelli Stadium this weekend. Neither team are going up or down & if I was a marketing man I’d have trouble selling this game to the neutral fan.
Both teams are in reasonable if unspectacular form as they plod along in mid-table but I have a feeling that the Cod Army’s more potent attack will continue Joey Barton’s encouraging start to his managerial career.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
PETERBOROUGH UNITED v SHREWSBURY TOWN
o Peterborough have won five of their last six home league games against Shrewsbury (D1), winning in each of the last two seasons.
o Shrewsbury have only managed one victory in their last 15 visits to Peterborough in all competitions (D6 L8), a 2-0 win in September 2005.
o Peterborough are one of two League One teams to have seen five players (Toney, Godden, Dembele, Cummings and Maddison) register 10 goal involvements this season, along with Barnsley.
o Since Sam Ricketts’ first League One game in charge on December 8th, Shrewsbury have taken just nine points from 12 games (W1 D6 L5); only Walsall (8) have taken fewer in this time.
o Since the beginning of last season, Peterborough’s Marcus Maddison has assisted more league goals (25) than any other player in England’s top four tiers.
Our view
Darren Ferguson’s Posh resurrected their faltering play-off push with a fine victory on the road at the Kassam last time out but must still be regarded as outsiders given the form of the teams above them. The main reason the London Road club aren’t higher in the table is their home form is patchy & they don’t look the same side that boast’s one of the best away records in the EFL.
A run of nine games without a win couldn’t come at a worse time for last season’s play-off finalists Shrewsbury as their plight near the bottom of the division gets more desperate by the week. Boss Sam Ricketts was appointed from Wrexham & had no EFL managerial experience & I’m sorry to say it is showing as his side is weakening game by game so I’m taking Posh to win this comfortably.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
PLYMOUTH ARGYLE v ROCHDALE
o Plymouth Argyle are unbeaten in their last three home league games against Rochdale (W2 D1), drawing 1-1 in League One last season.
o Rochdale have scored in 10 of their last 11 league games against Plymouth, only failing to find the net in a 1-0 away defeat in August 2013.
o Plymouth have won 17 League One points in 2019 (W5 D2 L1) – only Luton Town (20) and Barnsley (21) have won more.
o Rochdale have conceded 10 more League One goals than any other side this season (67).
o In 2018 and 2019, Plymouth have won 13 of their 18 league matches in January and February (D3 L2), making up 40% of the total points they’ve won in the last two seasons (42/106).
Our view
Derek Adams’ Argyle have only lost once in nine games & look to be heading for lower mid-table safety.
Keith Hill’s Dale have only won once in nine games & look to be heading for League Two.
But we all know Football is not always as black & white as that.
As fans we all know that when your team is struggling near the bottom you don’t seem to get any luck & Dale fans must have felt as though they’d been kicked in the proverbials when Joe Pigott converted Wimbledon’s 95th minute penalty at Spotland to give Dale’s relegation rivals the points in midweek.
Argyle followed up their excellent point in the docklands derby with Pompey with another battling stalemate at Valley Parade to keep well clear of trouble & the three points I predict in this game will keep Argyle moving in the right direction.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
PORTSMOUTH v BARNSLEY
o Portsmouth have lost just one of their last 19 league games at Fratton Park against Barnsley (W13 D5), a 3-1 loss in March 1999 when playing in the second-tier.
o Barnsley have failed to score on four of their last five visits to Fratton Park, however this was in an epic 4-4 draw back in February 2002.
o Portsmouth’s Ronan Curtis and Jamal Lowe have combined for more goals than any other League One duo this season (7).
o Only Luton Town’s James Collins (9) has scored more League One goals during 2019 than Barnsley striker Cauley Woodrow (6).
o Portsmouth are winless in seven matches in all competitions (D5 L2) – their longest winless run under manager Kenny Jackett.
Our view
Kenny Jackett’s faltering Pompey side are on a four-game unbeaten run of sorts, drawing their last four games as they welcome a Barnsley team that couldn’t be in better form & look to be heading back to the Championship at their first attempt.
As a bystander, I am at a loss as to what has gone so wrong at Fratton Park. Have big players like Curtis & Lowe stopped performing? The Pompey defence which had looked so solid for so much of the season suddenly looks vulnerable.
Tuesday night’s surprising 0-0 draw with Burton Albion at fortress Oakwell shows that even the best of sides have off days & should serve as encouragement for Jackett’s troops.
Another full house at Fratton Park & the intimidating atmosphere alone could spur Pompey on to a morale-boosting victory.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
WALSALL v BRADFORD CITY
o Walsall are winless in their last six league games against Bradford (D3 L3), last recording a victory against the Bantams in November 2015.
o Five of the last seven encounters between Walsall and Bradford at the Banks’s Stadium have ended level, with each side recording a win apiece.
o Walsall have lost their last five league matches in a row – they haven’t lost six in a row since losing 15 consecutively between October 1988 and February 1989.
o Bradford City haven’t failed to score in four consecutive league matches since November 2005.
o Walsall are without a clean sheet in 10 home League One matches – the longest current run in the division.
Our view
The Banks Stadium hosts a vital relegation battle as David Hopkin’s Bantams visit Dean Keates out of sorts Saddlers.
The West Midlands side are in simply awful form at the moment, losing their last five league games leaving them in the thick of a relegation battle. Only two goals scored in the five defeats is another worrying statistic for Keates & his coaching staff.
The next to bottom Bantams are still in desperate danger of a return to the bottom tier & recent results haven’t matched their encouraging recent performances but at least they are more difficult to beat under Hopkin with a narrow defeat by Fleetwood being their only defeat in their last five league games.
Who wants the points more? Bradford for me.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
WYCOMBE WANDERERS v GILLINGHAM
o Wycombe have won four of their last six league clashes with Gillingham (D1 L1), keeping a clean sheet in each of those victories.
o Gillingham ended a four-game losing run at Adams Park when they last played Wycombe in August 2012, winning 1-0 thanks to a Joe Martin strike.
o Wycombe defender Joe Jacobson has been involved in four of Wycombe’s last five league goals (2 goals, 2 assists) – the other was an own goal.
o Gillingham striker Tom Eaves has scored 16 league goals this season – 11 more than any other Gills player.
o Gillingham have conceded at least four times in seven matches in all competitions this season – only fellow League One side Rochdale have done so more often among Football League teams during the 2018-19 campaign (9).
Our view
Successive defeats by the Division’s top two teams Luton & Barnsley shouldn’t detract from what an excellent first season Gareth Ainsworth & his Chairboys team have had following promotion. Most Wycombe fans will see twelfth place with two-thirds of the season gone as a success.
Steve Lovell’s battling Gills side still can’t seem to pull clear of danger despite some standout results against the divisions bigger sides. After an eye-catching victory over an in-form Scunny side the Gills put in another encouraging display in midweek despite going down 4-2 at Sunderland in midweek.
The Kent side will give it everything but I’m going for a narrow Chairboys victory.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
SUNDAY 24 FEBRUARY
LUTON v COVENTRY
o Luton have won five of their last seven home clashes against Coventry in all competitions (L2), although both of those losses have come in the last three matches.
o Coventry have scored in each of their last seven games against Luton, winning four of these encounters (D1 L2).
o Since the start of last season, only Manchester City (53) have won more league matches in the top four tiers of English football than Luton Town (46).
o The average age of Coventry City’s starting line-up in League One this season is just 24 years and 69 days – the youngest in the division.
o James Collins has scored 10 goals in his last eight league appearances at Kenilworth Road for Luton Town, including six goals in his last three.
Our view
These two sides were both promoted from League Two last season and have found life in League One more than comfortable – in Luton’s case it has been a breeze.
The Hatters broke a club record by going 20 unbeaten following their win over Fleetwood that was also their sixth win in a row. They have put themselves in a great position to get back-to-back promotions and seal a return to the Championship for the first tme since 2007. Coventry are another side who have shown signs of recovery but haven’t been able to take the many chances they create on several occasions this season.
Mark Robins men will be in front of the TV camera for the third time this season and play a style that will make this game enjoyable for the neutrals.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
words Ian Bradley, D3D4 roving reporter and predictions maestro