Five vital games this midweek that will affect teams at the top & bottom of the division as the promotion & relegation battle hots up…
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v OXFORD UNITED
o After failing to win any of their first nine games in all competitions against Oxford (D5 L4), Accrington have won four of their last six against the U’s (L2), including each of the last two.
o Oxford have only lost one of their seven visits to the Wham Stadium in all competitions (W3 D3), winning 3-1 on their last visit in October 2015.
o Accrington are winless in their last seven league games (D3 L4); they last went on a longer run without a win in December 2016 (nine games).
o Oxford haven’t won a league game on the road since April, drawing 10 and losing six since victory over Doncaster.
o James Henry has scored 10 league goals for Oxford so far this season; double the amount of any of his teammates.
Our view
After an encouraging series of recent results that saw the U’s beat Pompey & draw with Barnsley & Sunderland, Oxford landed themselves back in the relegation mire with a disappointing result & performance in going down to play off chasing Posh in their last outing.
A worrying run of seven games without a win has sent Stanley hurtling towards the lower reaches of the table but John Coleman’s men would have taken encouragement & confidence from their 2-2 draw at the Stadium of Light, a game that their performance merited more than the single point gained.
A long trip to Lancashire on a cool Tuesday evening wouldn’t be on Oxford’s wish list & I think they’ll head home empty handed here.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
BARNSLEY v BURTON ALBION
o Burton picked up their first ever victory against Barnsley in their last encounter in February 2018, ending a run of six winless games in all competitions (D3 L3).
o Since keeping successive clean sheets in their first four games against Burton, Barnsley have conceded in each of the following three in all competitions (five goals).
o Barnsley have won nine of their last 11 league games (D2), scoring 24 goals, including at least two in each of the last seven outings.
o Since losing three successive away league games at the end of 2018, Burton have remained unbeaten in their five games in 2019 (W2 D3).
o Barnsley’s Cauley Woodrow has scored in each of his last two league games, netting back-to-back braces – he’s never bagged in three successive league appearances.
Our view
An incredible twenty-six points from the last available thirty has propelled the on song Tykes towards a return to the Championship at the first time of asking & the exciting expansive football Daniel Stendel’s men are producing on a consistent basis really is a joy to behold.
The latest team to try & dent Barnsley’s unbeaten home record is Nigel Clough’s Brewers who were relegated with them last season. The mid-table Brewers are having a steady League season & are currently in a comfortable mid-table position, unbeaten in their last five games, but Barnsley away is a daunting task for any League One club this season & I fear Clough’s men will return empty-handed.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
PORTSMOUTH v BRISTOL ROVERS
o Portsmouth have won each of their last nine games at Fratton Park against Bristol Rovers in all competitions.
o Portsmouth have won 12 of their last 15 games in all competitions against Bristol Rovers (L3), scoring 30 and conceding 14.
o Portsmouth are winless in their last six league games (D3 L3), their worst run since failing to win in nine games in January 2015.
o Since losing five successive league games between November and December, Bristol Rovers have lost just one of the last nine (W4 D4).
o Tom Nichols has been directly involved in three goals in his last three games for Bristol Rovers (1 goal, 2 assists); as many as he had a hand in through his first 23 games this season.
Our view
Graham Coughlan’s battling Gas side are on their best run of the season losing only once in their last nine games as they battle to stay in the division. They visit a stuttering Pompey side whose automatic promotion hopes which looked so strong a few short weeks ago, look more remote by the week given the amazing form of Luton & Barnsley.
If Kenny Jackett’s sides worrying form( which was encapsulated in losing a 3-0 lead at Southend last weekend) continues surely a place in the play-offs looks questionable. I can see Rovers putting another dent in Pompey’s promotion dream with victory on the South coast.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
ROCHDALE v AFC WIMBLEDON
o Four of the last five league meetings between Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon have ended level (one win for Wimbledon), including each of the last three.
o AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten in their four league trips to Rochdale (W2 D2), although both of their League One visits have ended in a draw.
o Rochdale have picked up just one point from their last four home games (D1 L3), scoring just one goal in this run, their 1-1 draw with Fleetwood.
o AFC Wimbledon have picked up as many points in their last five away games (W2 D1 L2) as they had in their opening 11 on the road this season (7 points).
o No League One side have lost more games after taking the lead this season than Rochdale, doing so on four occasions.
Our view
After finally bowing out of the FA Cup with a typically battling performance in defeat to Championship Millwall at the weekend, the Dons continue their increasingly unlikely bid to escape relegation with this vital clash at Spotland.
Keith Hill’s Dale are by no means safe themselves & need the points to keep clear of the bottom four & are my tip to narrowly take the points in this game.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
SUNDERLAND v GILLINGHAM
o Gillingham won 3-2 in their first meeting with Sunderland in a third-tier play-off semi-final first leg in 1987 – since then, the Gills have drawn two and lost six.
o Sunderland are unbeaten in their four home games against Gillingham (W3 D1), with all games seeing both sides score (Sunderland 9, Gillingham 6).
o No team has drawn more league games in the English top four tiers than Sunderland in 2019 (6).
o Gillingham have kept just two clean sheets in their last 14 league away games (W4 D3 L7).
o Sunderland have gained 19 points from losing positions in League One this season; four more than any other side in the division.
Our view
The Black Cats automatic promotion hopes became even more unlikely when they drew for the SEVENTH time in their last nine League games v Accy last time out & will probably have to settle for an end of season play-off place.
Relegation-threatened Gillingham head to the North East boosted by a rare & very welcome home win over in-form Scunthorpe on Saturday & Steve Lovell will certainly get a battling shift out of his men but I have a feeling the Mackems will win out here.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
words Ian Bradley, D3D4 roving reporter and predictions guru