The finishing line is in sight for our third tier clubs with nothing decided yet both at the top & bottom of the division. This weekend’s full programme of games will be vital in determining the joy of promotion & despair of relegation….here goes!!
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v WALSALL
o Accrington Stanley have hosted Walsall on just one occasion in the Football League, a 2-1 victory for the Saddlers in October 2006.
o Accrington Stanley have won both of their last two games against Walsall in all competitions – a 2-1 League Cup first round win in August 2009 and a 1-0 win in the reverse league fixture in September this season.
o Accrington Stanley have picked up just one point from their last five league games (D1 L4), scoring just once in their last four.
o Walsall have lost each of their last five league games, they haven’t lost six or more in a row since their worst ever Football League run between October 1988 and February 1989 (15).
o Walsall have conceded 26 goals from set-piece situations in League One this season; more than any other side in the division).
Our view
Seventeenth placed Stanley suffered a damaging midweek defeat to fellow strugglers Rochdale and in doing so fell to their fourth defeat in their last five. They remain, a narrow, two points above the dropzone so John Coleman will be keen for his side to put a bit more daylight between his team & danger as caretaker manager Martin O’Connor brings his hopelessly out of form Saddlers to the Wham Stadium.
The West Midlanders have lost all of their last five league games culminating in the dismissal of manager Dean Keates, a run that has plummeted them to twenty-third place & in desperate danger of relegation. This game really is the last chance saloon for the struggling Saddlers.
A difficult one to predict but I have a feeling Stanley will narrowly win.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
BARNSLEY v FLEETWOOD TOWN
o Barnsley are winless in their three home encounters against Fleetwood in all competitions (D1 L2), losing both games in the league in 2014-15 and 2015-16.
o Barnsley are unbeaten in their last four games in all competitions versus Fleetwood (W2 D2), although both of their victories in this run came away, including the reverse league fixture in September.
o Barnsley are unbeaten in their last 24 home league games (W14 D10), they last went on a longer run in the league between February 1938 and April 1939 (28 games).
o Only opponents Barnsley (10) have kept more clean sheets on the road in League One this season than Fleetwood (9).
o Barnsley’s Cauley Woodrow has scored in successive league games for the fourth time this season, but he’s never netted three times in a row in his Football League career.
Our view
Daniel Stendell’s Tykes have finally been overtaken by the Sunderland juggernaut after suffering their first defeat in what seems like forever when they were beaten at Burton last Saturday. Barnsley followers have thought that this defeat had been coming for a while having seen their team draw three of the last five games allowing the Black Cats recent improved run to overtake them.
Joey Barton’s Cod Army have had a fine season & are currently in eleventh place & have gained seven points from the last three games. If they can sort out their inconsistent form they could be a team to watch next season.
Not out of the picture for automatic promotion by any means Barnsley have to come out of this worrying wobble in form even if they do end up in the playoffs & Fleetwood won’t make it easy for the Tykes either & could leave Oakwell with a point.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
BLACKPOOL v PETERBOROUGH UNITED
o Blackpool have lost just one of their last five home league games against Peterborough (W3 D1), a 0-1 loss in March 2013.
o Each of the last two league contests between Blackpool and Peterborough have finished level; they had only drawn one of their last 15 such encounters before this.
o Blackpool have won just one of their last nine league games at Bloomfield Road (D5 L3), including a current winless run of four (D3 L1).
o Peterborough have won successive league games for the first time since October, they last went on a longer run in the first five games of the campaign.
o Peterborough’s Marcus Maddison has been directly involved in 10 goals in his last eight league appearances (5 goals, 5 assists).
Our view
Both of these teams still hold out hope of an end of season playoff place but at this stage, I think they’ll both miss out mainly due to the form of the current top six.
Darren Ferguson’s Posh seem to have the best chance of gatecrashing the end of season party lying in seventh, five points behind Doncaster with a game in hand following good successive wins over Southend & Gillingham reigniting their bid.
Pool sit one place & three points behind their opponents but have had a decent season under Terry McPhillips & have only lost once in their last seven but have drawn four slowing down their progress.
A disappointing draw that will damage both clubs chances here.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
CHARLTON ATHLETIC v LUTON TOWN
o Charlton are unbeaten in their last seven home league encounters with Luton (W5 D2), although they haven’t hosted the Hatters in the league since April 1996 when both sides were in the second tier.
o Each of the last eight league games between Charlton and Luton have been decided by one-goal or fewer, Charlton winning four, Luton winning two and the other two games ending in a stalemate.
o Charlton have kept clean sheets in each of their last four league games, they haven’t kept five or more in a row since August 1998 (10 successive shutouts).
o Luton have won five of their last six league away games (D1), conceding just two goals in this period, keeping four clean sheets.
o Charlton’s Lyle Taylor has been directly involved in 24 league goals this season (16 goals, 8 assists); only Luton’s James Collins has had a hand in more (25; 22 goals, 3 assists).
Our view
What a game in prospect at the Valley as two of the most on form teams in the entire EFL lock horns.
The fifth-placed Addicks are virtually assured of a playoff place & have not given up hope of a top two automatic promotion berth lying four points behind second-placed Sunderland leaving them well placed to take advantage of any slip-ups by their rivals.
Mick Harford & his Hatters team have been magnificent all season & surely it’s a matter of when not if they are crowned Champions of League One however it took a late equaliser v Blackpool last weekend to extend their club record unbeaten run & a couple of recent draws have shown that the Kenilworth Road side are in fact human after all.
All unbeaten runs eventually end & I think Champions elect Luton’s will end in the Capital.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
DONCASTER ROVERS v PLYMOUTH ARGYLE
o After losing four successive league games against Plymouth between November 2009 and March 2017, Doncaster have won two of the last three (D1), including a 3-2 win in their away fixture in September.
o Plymouth are unbeaten in their last three league visits to Doncaster (W2 D1), most recently drawing 1-1 in January 2018.
o Doncaster are unbeaten in their last 12 home league games (W8 D4), netting 30 goals in total (avg 2.5 per game).
o Plymouth have won only one of their last seven League One outings (D3 L3), with a current winless run of four (D2 L2).
o Plymouth have scored 11 goals from corner situations; no League One side have scored more goals in this manner this season.
Our view
A vital clash at the Keepmoat that affects matters at both ends of the table.
Grant McCann’s Rovers form has improved after a recent wobble with three straight league wins maintaining the five-point gap over Posh, their main rivals for the final playoff place. The fact that this upturn in fortune has been achieved without injured star performers in Ben Whiteman & Herbie Kane is all the more creditable.
A run of only one win in the last seven has made Argyle’s fine January & February form a distant memory so Derek Adams side cannot afford to relax with his team lying in fifteenth place but still only four points clear of the dreaded bottom four.
Close one but Donny are on song right now & should win.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
GILLINGHAM v SHREWSBURY TOWN
o Gillingham have only won one of their last 12 league encounters against Shrewsbury (D6 L5), a 3-2 victory away from home in August 2016.
o Shrewsbury are unbeaten in their last five league visits to Gillingham (W3 D2), scoring in each contest.
o Gillingham have seen just five goals in their last four home league games (3 goals, 2 goals against), their previous four had seen 12 (2 goals, 10 goals against).
o Shrewsbury have only failed to score in one of their last 12 league away games – a 0-0 draw in Blackpool in January.
o Tom Eaves has either scored or assisted in three of his last four appearances for Gillingham (2 goals, 1 assist).
Our view
Thirteenth v Fourteenth at Priestfield with respective managers Mssrs Lovell & Ricketts thinking that one more win should see their teams safe after difficult seasons.
Both teams have identical recent records with both having taken fifteen points from their last ten games which is solid mid-table form.
It looks a nailed on draw to me.
PREDICTION NO SCORE DRAW
OXFORD UNITED v AFC WIMBLEDON
o Oxford have won five of their seven Football League contests at home against AFC Wimbledon (D1 L1), winning 3-0 last term.
o After remaining winless in their first 10 Football League matches against Oxford (D2 L8), AFC Wimbledon have since won four of their last five (L1).
o Oxford manager Karl Robinson has only one won of his last five games in all competitions against AFC Wimbledon (D1 L3), losing each of the last two.
o AFC Wimbledon have won each of their last two league away games, they last won three in a row in October 2016, starting this run with a 3-1 victory over Oxford.
o Oxford are looking to win five successive league games in a single season for the first time since August 2017.
Our view
The U’s current run of four straight League victory’s have rocketed Karl Robinson’s men up to twelfth on 52 points & League One safety virtually guaranteed.
Wally Downes continues to impress at the Dons who remain inside the bottom four but are remarkably only a single point away from safety with only one league defeat in their last seven games.
This game could hinge on which team “wants it more” so using that criteria I’m going for the Dons to continue the “great escape”
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
PORTSMOUTH v ROCHDALE
o Portsmouth are unbeaten in their four previous league games against Rochdale at Fratton Park (W3 D1), winning each of the last three, keeping a clean sheet in each win.
o Rochdale have only won once against Portsmouth in 10 games in all competitions (D2 L7), a 3-0 home victory in March 2014.
o Portsmouth are looking to win five successive league games in a single season for the first time since April 2014.
o After losing four successive league games, Rochdale have lost just one of the last six (W3 D2).
o Rochdale have conceded more headed goals (20) and goals (79) than any other side in League One this season.
Our view
Brian Barry-Murphy celebrated being given the Spotland hotseat on a permanent basis with an important win at Accrington in midweek, a result that moved them out of the relegation places ahead of this long trip to Fratton Park to face Kenny Jackett’s promotion chasers.
Four wins from the last six league games plus a Wembley Cup Final victory has ramped up the feelgood factor at Fratton Park going into the final few weeks of the season. Automatic promotion isn’t out of the equation but it would take a mini collapse at Sunderland for this to happen & I cannot see that happening so a second trip to the National Stadium is a more realistic proposition for Pompey.
I can see Dale getting a surprise point in this game.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
SCUNTHORPE UNITED v BURTON ALBION
o Scunthorpe have won each of their three home games against Burton in all competitions by a one-goal margin, including a 2-1 victory in the FA Cup first round earlier in the season.
o Burton have failed to score in three of their last four league games against Scunthorpe (W1 D1 L2), not finding the net in either of the last two.
o Scunthorpe have won just one of their last nine league games (D2 L6), and are winless in their last four, picking up just one point (D1 L3).
o Since losing their last three away games of 2018, Burton have lost just one of their nine games on the road in 2019 (W3 D5).
o Five of Burton’s last seven League One goals have come in the final 15 minutes of action.
Our view
Just a single point from the last twelve available have plunged Scunny back into the relegation dogfight only two points clear of the dreaded relegation places & in no form at all under caretaker boss Andy Dawson.
Nigel Clough’s Carabao Cup semi finalists have hit a rich vein of form of late with their impressive win over Barnsley at the weekend making it four wins from their last six. Most Brewers fans would have taken an upper mid table finish after the agonies of last season’s relegation I’m sure & I think their good form will continue here.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
SOUTHEND UNITED v WYCOMBE WANDERERS
o Fourteen of the 16 Football League meetings (inc. play-offs) between Southend and Wycombe have seen both teams score, with the Shrimpers finding the net in every contest.
o After losing their first two home Football League games against Wycombe, Southend are unbeaten in the previous five (W2 D3).
o Southend are winless in their last 13 League One outings (D5 L8) – the longest current run without a victory in the division.
o Wycombe have picked up just one point from their last 10 league games (D1 L9), the lowest points tally in this period, dropping from 9th in the table to 20th.
o Southend have dropped into the relegation zone for the first time since 14th October 2016, although they missed out on the play-offs by one point that season.
Our view
Heaven knows what’ll happen at Roots Hall as the worst two teams in the entire EFL clash( form wise) in this vital relegation clash. NO wins & a meagre five points from TWENTY games between them doesn’t signify a classic but the Shrimpers gained a vital point from a 2-2 draw with a good Fleetwood team last time out so I’m backing them to gain a vital three points to extend the Chairboys losing run to six.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
SUNDERLAND v COVENTRY CITY
o Sunderland have only lost one of their 18 home games in all competitions against Coventry (W9 D8), and are unbeaten in their last 13 (W7 D6).
o Coventry have only scored four goals in their 18 away visits to Sunderland in all competitions, scoring just once in their last 10 such trips.
o Sunderland have only lost one of their last 32 League One matches (W17 D14), a 3-1 loss against Portsmouth in December.
o After winning just one of their previous seven games on the road (L6), Coventry have won three of the following five away from home (D2).
o Sunderland have gained more points from losing positions at home (16) and in total (27) than any other League One side this season.
Our view
I know this is a preview & predictions page but I would like to personally express my sadness & sympathies to all Sky Blues followers who have been told that staying at the Ricoh for the 2019/20 season has been ruled out meaning they will have to embark on another groundsharing deal. Another massive thank you to the men in suits for causing this latest mess.
The Mackems are flying, we already know they don’t lose but they’ve stopped drawing games & have started to win them helping to overhaul Barnsley into the second automatic promotion place.
Ninth place Cov haven’t given up all playoff hopes but Mark Robins & his side have had a solid but inconsistant season after last May’s Wembley glory but they have very little chance of derailing the Black Cat express here.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
BRISTOL ROVERS v BRADFORD CITY
o Bristol Rovers are unbeaten in their 13 home Football League games against Bradford City (W10 D3), the most they have faced against any current EFL club without ever losing on home soil.
o Bradford City have only lost one of their last seven league meetings with Bristol Rovers (W2 D4), although this was this exact fixture last season (1-3).
o Since winning three successive league games at the start of March, Bristol Rovers are winless in their last five (D3 L2) – they last failed to win six consecutive games in a single season in the final seven games of the 2017-18 campaign (D5 L2).
o Bradford City have won only one of their last 11 league games (D2 L8), losing each of their last five.
o Jonson Clarke-Harris has scored nine of Bristol Rovers’ last 11 league goals.
Our view
No wins in five has made the followers of the Gas nervous with their side still only three points clear of danger.
The rock bottom League Two bound Bantams actually performed well in their narrow defeat to Donny last weekend & were unlucky not to gain at least a point.
Graham Coughlin’s side to take a massive step towards safety with a comfortable victory here.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
words Ian Bradley, D3D4 roving reporter and predictions guru