With only eleven games remaining for the majority of League One clubs virtually every game from now onwards has a bearing on the top & bottom of the table as the 2018/19 regular season enters the home straight. As always I will endeavour to make sense of it all.
FRIDAY 8th MARCH
COVENTRY CITY v BURTON ALBION
o Coventry have lost two of their three previous League One meetings with Burton Albion, winning the other in their first such encounter in September 2015 (2-1).
o Burton Albion won their only previous league visit to the Ricoh Arena 2-0 in January 2016, with second half goals from Calum Butcher and Stuart Beavon.
o Coventry have taken 11 points from their last five league matches (W3 D2 L0), as many as in their previous 13 combined (W3 D2 L8).
o Burton Albion have never won an away game on a Friday in the Football League in eight attempts (D4 L4), most recently losing 1-3 to Cardiff City in March 2018 in the Championship.
o This will be the eighth managerial league clash between Coventry’s Mark Robins and Burton’s Nigel Clough; Clough is unbeaten in the last six (W2 D4) having lost the first such contest as Derby boss against Robins’ Barnsley in September 2009.
Our view
Unbeaten in their last five games, the Sky Blues have put their off-field troubles behind them as they look to continue their late-season surge for an unlikely play-off place in this all Midlands clash at the Ricoh. Eleven points have been gained in this run including a hugely impressive point in a 1-1 draw at Champions elect Luton lifting last season’s League Two play-off winners up to ninth place, five points adrift of the sixth & final play-off place.
Mid-table Burton have been difficult to beat of late with only one defeat in their last eight league games but this run has included SIX draws which has all but ended any hopes Nigel Clough & his team had of extending their season.
I’m tipping Mark Robins Sky Blues to win & ramp up the pressure on the other play-off candidates ahead of Saturday’s games.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
SATURDAY 9th MARCH
AFC WIMBLEDON v DONCASTER ROVERS
o AFC Wimbledon won their only previous home meeting with Doncaster Rovers in League One 2-0 in August 2017, Kwesi Appiah and Andy Barcham netting the goals.
o Doncaster’s 2-1 win over AFC Wimbledon in their reverse meeting in November 2018 was their first win over the Wombles in League One (P3 W1 D1 L1).
o AFC Wimbledon have lost more home matches in all competitions (13) this season than any team in the top four tiers of English football.
o Mallik Wilks has scored four goals in his last six League One appearances for Doncaster.
o Doncaster have kept two clean sheets in their last 22 away matches in all competitions.
Our view
Whilst not mathematically relegated yet, the beleaguered Dons find themselves a whopping NINE points from safety & also with a vastly inferior goal difference compared with their relegation rivals coming into this clash with play-off chasing Donny at Kingsmeadow. I do hope the powers that be at the Dons persevere with Wally Downes as manager as he cannot be blamed for the majority of the club’s miserable league season & what he has done is instilled some pride & commitment in the team as last weekend’s goalless draw at in-form Shrewsbury showed.
Are Grant McCann’s talented Donny side beginning to “bottle it” in their chase for a play-off place? It had seemed nailed on before this latest wobble in form that has seen them gain only two points from their last three League One games. A damaging defeat at Shrewsbury sandwiched in-between draws with Scunny & Charlton will worry Rovers fans with revitalized Posh breathing down their necks having clawed back the five-point deficit from a couple of weeks ago.
As damaging as the Shrews defeat was, Donny have the players to turn around this dip in form starting here.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
BARNSLEY v ACCRINGTON STANLEY
o This will be only the second league meeting between Barnsley and Accrington Stanley in their current form, after the Tykes won 2-0 at the Crown Ground in November 2018.
o Barnsley last won both of their first ever two meetings with a particular opponent in the Football League back in 2003-04, when they did the double over Rushden and Diamonds in the third tier.
o Barnsley are unbeaten in 21 home league matches, their best run at Oakwell since going the full 23 home games unbeaten in the 1967-68 season.
o Accrington Stanley have won just one of their last 11 league games (D4 L6), failing to score in seven of those matches.
o Cauley Woodrow has scored six goals in his last nine league appearances at Oakwell for Barnsley.
Our view
Incredibly, given the long unbeaten runs of Luton & Daniel Stendell’s Tykes, automatic promotion for both of these teams is by no means assured & Jack Ross & his Sunderland side have spectacularly returned to form turning frustrating draws into victories determined to chase down the leading pair all the way.
The Tykes have made Oakwell a fortress this season & have treated their followers to some wonderful football as they look to regain a Championship berth at the first attempt. They simply cannot afford a repeat of their recent surprise home draw with Burton so a maximum return from this clash with John Coleman’s side is a must.
Successive home defeats to Coventry & Blackpool has left last season’s League Two champions precariously placed in Fifteenth place but only four points away from the drop-zone & this trip to South Yorkshire is the first game of a difficult run-in for the Lancastrians.
Barnsley need the points & will win this comfortably.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
BLACKPOOL v SOUTHEND UNITED
o Blackpool, 2-1 winners in the reverse meeting between these two sides in November 2018, are looking to complete a league double over Southend for the first time since the 1984-85 fourth tier campaign.
o Southend have only won one of their last nine away league games against Blackpool (D3 L5), a 2-1 victory in January 2006.
o Blackpool have failed to score in five of their last seven home matches in all competitions – they had failed to find the net in just five of their previous 52 games at Bloomfield Road.
o Southend have taken just three points from their last seven League One matches (W0 D3 L4) since a 4-0 win at Bradford City in January.
o Southend’s last eight league goals have been scored by either Simon Cox (four) or Stephen Humphrys (four).
Our view
Bloomfield Road will simply be rocking on Saturday, win, lose, draw, points deduction or not because the long-suffering fans of the famous Tangerines have prized the club back from the grasping hands of the inept Oyston family, a fact that all fans of every club can rejoice in.
Back to football matters & Pool put the 4-0 hammering at Bristol Rovers behind them by defeating Accrington in midweek & sit eighth only four points behind Donny & Posh in the playoff chase & Terry McPhillips will hope the full house expected can roar their team on to victory in this game.
There is always at least one team every season that can fall into relegation danger from a comfortably mid-table berth with a poor run of form & this could well be Chris Powell’s Shrimpers who are in the middle of an appalling slump which has seen the Roots Hall outfit winless in seven gaining only three points from twenty one available.
Southend will be desperate to halt the slide but the Blackpool feel-good factor will sweep the Tangerines to victory here.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
GILLINGHAM v OXFORD UNITED
o Gillingham are without a win in their last nine meetings with Oxford United in all competitions (D3 L6), scoring just two goals in those matches.
o Oxford United have won three of their last four away games versus Gillingham in all competitions (D1), this after having lost three of the four beforehand (D1).
o Gillingham haven’t won consecutive home league matches since November 2018.
o Oxford United are looking to win three consecutive league matches for the first time since October 2017, when they were managed by Pep Clotet.
o Since the start of last season, Gillingham striker Tom Eaves has scored more goals in League One than any other player (34 goals).
Our view
Priestfield hosts a vital clash which neither of these relegation-threatened sides dare lose.
Nine points from their last six games represents a reasonable return for Steve Lovell’s Gills as they continue to keep their heads above water in their attempts to avoid dropping back into the fourth tier & the Kent side will be certainly up for the battle ahead.
Successive impressive wins over Blackpool & Scunthorpe has lifted the gloom around the Kassam & lifted Karl Robinson’s side out of the bottom four ahead of this vital Priestfield clash.
It will be a close & very tense battle but I’m going for a narrow vital win for the Gills in this one.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
BRADFORD CITY v PETERBOROUGH UNITED
o This will be the fourth meeting between Bradford City and Peterborough United in all competitions this season alone, with each of the previous three being draws; neither side have ever drawn four meetings with the same Football League opponent in a single season before.
o Bradford have lost just one of their last eight meetings with Peterborough in all competitions (W4 D3), although that was their last home league game against them on Boxing Day in 2017 (1-3).
o Bradford have won just one of their last nine League One matches (D3 L5), losing the last two while conceding eight goals.
o Since winning each of their first five League One matches this season, Peterborough have registered back to back victories only once, doing so in October.
o Darren Ferguson has ended on the losing side in four of his last five league trips to Bradford, winning the other with Peterborough in August 2014.
Our view
Ex-Blackpool manager Gary Bowyer is the latest manager charged with performing the minor miracle of keeping the hapless Bantams in the third tier following David Hopkin’s resignation. Defeats at Walsall & Pompey have made the Bantam’s hopes of avoiding relegation turn from unlikely to virtually impossible & if Bowyer achieves his goal he should be given the freedom of the City.
It seems that Darren Ferguson has started to get his ideas across to his talented Posh side following two wins in the last three games, reigniting a play-off bid that had looked dead in the water following a stuttering start to his third spell as Posh manager.
Both sides are desperate for the points but it will be Ferguson that will be smiling at 5pm on Saturday.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
PLYMOUTH ARGYLE v LUTON TOWN
o Plymouth are without a win in four league meetings with Luton (D1 L3) and have lost each of their last three against them at home.
o Luton won the reverse meeting between these two sides 5-1 at Kenilworth Road in November 2018 and are looking to do a Football League double over Plymouth for the first time since 1997-98.
o Only opponents Luton Town (14) have won more home points in League One in 2019 than Plymouth Argyle (13).
o Since Mick Harford’s first League One match in charge of Luton in January, only Barnsley (24) have won more points in the division than Luton (23).
o Luton are on the longest current unbeaten away run in League One – 10 matches (W7 D3 L0).
Our view
If this game was played in December I’d have metaphorically put my life savings on an easy Away win in this Home Park clash but Argyle are a different animal since the turn of the year & their upturn in form coupled with a large noisy partisan home support they are a match for anyone in the division, even Mick Harford’s imperious Hatters.
I have simply run out of superlatives to describe the incredible Luton team this season except to admire their wonderful attacking style of play which is a joy to watch. The way that manager Mick Harford has taken over seamlessly to continue Nathan Jones wonderful work is worthy of praise & I cannot see Kenilworth Road hosting anything other than Championship football next season.
It’s difficult to bet against any side that has won seven of their last eight League games as Luton have but I’ve got a feeling Derek Adams can rouse his Argyle side to a share of the points here.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
ROCHDALE v SHREWSBURY TOWN
o The side playing at home has won each of the last seven league meetings between Rochdale and Shrewsbury (three Rochdale wins, four Shrewsbury) since the Dale won 1-0 at New Meadow in March 2010.
o Shrewsbury won 3-2 in their reverse meeting with Rochdale in November 2018; they have never previously done a double over the Dale in the Football League.
o This will be Rochdale’s first match without Keith Hill in charge since January 2013, when they lost 1-2 to Dagenham & Redbridge in League Two under John Coleman.
o Shrewsbury are unbeaten in five league matches (W2 D3 L0), their best run since March 2018 (six unbeaten).
o Rochdale have conceded 74 league goals this season, 14 more than any other League One side and 29 more than opponents Shrewsbury have conceded (45).
Our view
Any board of directors who fire a manager that has presided over two of only three promotions in the club’s history deserve what is coming to them in my opinion & unfortunately, that’s what has happened at Spotland where Dale fired club legend Keith Hill this week. The timing of Hill’s dismissal couldn’t have been worse with twenty-second place Dale five points from safety leaving any incumbent in the hot seat needing to perform a miracle with a dispirited squad who have gained only three points from their last ten games. Hill knew his players & whilst avoiding the drop would have been a tall order he would have been the best choice to give it a try.
Seventeenth place Town aren’t out of the relegation woods themselves but impressive wins over playoff-chasing Donny & Posh in a five-game unbeaten run has lifted the Shropshire side out of immediate danger & given boss Sam Ricketts a good chance of avoiding the drop.
Salop to continue their recent improvement with a win here.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
SCUNTHORPE UNITED v BRISTOL ROVERS
o Scunthorpe United have lost just one of their last 11 Football League meetings with Bristol Rovers (W6 D4) and are unbeaten in seven (W3 D4) since a 0-2 defeat in February 2009.
o Bristol Rovers have lost their last two visits to Scunthorpe in League One; they have never previously lost three consecutive away games against them in the Football League.
o Scunthorpe have won just one of their last five league matches (D1 L3), having won five of their previous six (D1).
o Bristol Rovers are unbeaten in six away matches in all competitions (W4 D2 L0), last enjoying a longer run as a Football League side in October 2007 (11 games).
o Jonson Clarke-Harris has scored four goals in five league appearances for Bristol Rovers this season – he scored five in 27 for Coventry earlier this campaign.
Our view
Glanford Park hosts another vital clash between two clubs desperate to avoid the drop into the bottom tier as managers Stuart McCall & Graham Coughlin lock horns.
Scunny’s impressive recent run has stalled somewhat and defeats by strugglers Gillingham & Oxford leave the Iron still with a lot of work to do to avoid being sucked back into a relegation dogfight in the season’s final weeks.
A Jonson Clarke -Harris hat-trick in an impressive 4-0 demolition of Blackpool was the Gas’s first win in four leaves Rovers still in the bottom four but narrowed the gap to safety to just two points.
I can see the Gas leaving Lincolnshire with three vital points after a typical battling performance.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
WALSALL v FLEETWOOD TOWN
o Walsall have won three of their four home League One games against Fleetwood Town, losing the other 0-1 in March 2017.
o Fleetwood have lost just one of their last five league meetings with Walsall (W3 D1), this after having lost each of their first four against the Saddlers beforehand.
o Walsall have taken four points from their last two league games (W1 D1), as many as in their previous 10 combined (W1 D1 L8).
o James Husband’s 90th minute equaliser for Fleetwood against Gillingham in their last game was the first time the Cod Army had gained a point from a losing position in League One this season.
o Fleetwood are looking to win four consecutive away league matches for the first time since joining the Football League in August 2012.
Our view
Twentieth placed Saddlers followed their vital win over Bradford with a battling point in a draw at Burton last time out to give Dean Keates men a fighting chance of avoiding relegation.
Joey Barton’s Cod Army are on form & their narrow defeat to all-conquering Luton has been their only defeat in their last five games as they continue to chase the unlikeliest of play-off places. The Highbury side are only six points short of sixth place & with a good end of season run anything could still happen.
Fleetwood are a strong team at this level & will have too much for the struggling West Midlanders.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
WYCOMBE WANDERERS v SUNDERLAND
o This will be just the second ever league meeting between Wycombe Wanderers and Sunderland, after the two sides played out a 1-1 draw in November 2018.
o Neither of the scorers in Wycombe and Sunderland’s league meeting earlier this season are still at their respective clubs – Sunderland’s Josh Maja has joined Bordeaux and Wycombe’s Fred Onyedinma returned to Millwall after a loan spell.
o Wycombe haven’t lost five consecutive league matches since February 2017.
o Sunderland have lost just four of their last 45 matches in all competitions since Chris Coleman departed the club (W25 D16).
o Sunderland defender Tom Flanagan is yet to end on the losing side in League One for the Black Cats, playing 23 games without defeat (W13 D10 L0).
Our view
Gareth Ainsworth’s Chairboys have lost their last four league games conceding ten goals in the process & still need points to preserve their League One status finding themselves only six points clear of danger ahead of the visit of automatic promotion chasing Sunderland this weekend.
As I mentioned last week Jack Ross & his Black Cats can smell blood as they continue to chase down the top two & their impressive victory against Argyle was their third in a row & the North East side head south in a confident mood.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
CHARLTON ATHLETIC v PORTSMOUTH
o Charlton have won both of their last two league meetings with Portsmouth; they last won three in a row against them in October 1999 (a run of four).
o Portsmouth have won each of their last three visits to the Valley in all competitions, last losing away at Charlton in a Premier League clash in April 2006, with Bryan Hughes and Darren Bent sealing a comeback win for the Addicks after Andres D’Alessandro had given Pompey a half-time lead.
o Charlton are unbeaten in 11 home league games (W7 D4 L0), their best unbeaten run at the Valley since February 2012 under Chris Powell (W11 D7 L0).
o Portsmouth have won one of their last seven away league matches (D3 L3).
o Ben Close has scored four goals in his last five league games for Portsmouth – double the amount he scored in his first 72 appearances (including play-offs) for the club (2).
Our view
A clash of two playoff hopefuls at the Valley in Saturday’s late kick-off.
A run of only one defeat in ten games has cemented Lee Bowyer’s Addicks in fifth place, five points clear of Posh in seventh place.
Pompey ended their run of five successive draws with a 5-1 demolition of hapless Bradford at the weekend to see the longtime leaders comfortably in fourth place, five points behind second-placed Barnsley.
I’m sure Kenny Jackett hasn’t given up on a top two place for his Pompey side but the form of the top three has made this dream unlikely but as I’ve said, anything can happen in the final eleven games.
A point apiece here.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
words Ian Bradley, D3D4 roving reporter and predictions guru
