After Sunderland’s victory over struggling Accrington in midweek moved them within two points of second-placed Barnsley, it’s looking like a three-way fight for the two automatic promotion places.
Doncaster look in pole position for the sixth & final playoff place, timing their return to form perfectly but they can’t afford any slip-ups with Peterborough, Blackpool & Coventry waiting to take advantage.
What can I say about the dogfight to stay in the third tier apart from the fact that it still involves almost half the division? Oxford & Gillingham’s recent good form have pulled them far enough clear for their fans to relax a little & another win each should see them safe but from 14th place Plymouth downwards there’s still a lot of work to be done to achieve safety in the Division where anyone can literally beat anyone (or draw with them in Sunderland’s case). Here goes…
AFC WIMBLEDON v ACCRINGTON STANLEY
o AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten in their last four home games against Accrington (W2 D2), including a 1-0 victory in the 2016 League Two play-off semi-finals, Tom Beere scoring a dramatic stoppage time winner in the first leg.
o Accrington Stanley have only won one of their last six games against AFC Wimbledon (D2 L3), this after winning six of their first seven (D1).
o AFC Wimbledon have only lost one of their last six games in League One (W4 D1), keeping four clean sheets in this run.
o Accrington Stanley have failed to score in seven of their last 11 away games in League One (W2 D2 L7).
o Joe Pigott has been directly involved in eight goals in his last eight league games for AFC Wimbledon (five goals and three assists).
Our view
Twenty second-placed Dons are hitting their best form of a difficult season, winning four of their last five league matches giving their fans genuine hope of avoiding a relegation that had looked nailed on a few short weeks ago & a lot of credit must go to manager Wally Downes & his coaching staff.
Accrington are in real trouble. They lie in eighteenth place & two points above the bottom four but that’s where the good news ends. John Coleman’s men are in wretched form losing six of their last seven league games & defeat in this game would see the Dons move above them in the table.
AFC certainly have the momentum coming into this vital clash & I can see them picking up another victory over an Accy side low on form & confidence.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
BRADFORD CITY v DONCASTER ROVERS
o There hasn’t been a draw between Bradford and Doncaster in their last 10 meetings in all competitions, the Bantams winning four and losing six.
o After losing two successive home league games against Doncaster, Bradford have won their last two at Valley Parade, last winning three in a row in January 1980.
o Bradford have lost each of their last four games in League One, while they last suffered five consecutive league defeats in November 2018 (a run of six defeats).
o Doncaster have won each of their last two league games and are looking to record three consecutive victories for the first time since December 2018.
o Bradford have conceded 28 goals in League One in 2019 – only Rochdale (30) have shipped more in this period.
Our view
West v South Yorkshire in this vital derby clash at both ends of the table at Valley Parade.
Bottom club Bradford had some good news in midweek as manager Gary Bowyer signed a new two-year contract. Stability is what is needed at the moment & the Bantams have finally found a manager with the talent & determination to succeed whatever division they find themselves next season. Six points adrift at the bottom, losing five of their last six league games, Bradford’s survival chances include the words ‘snowball’s chance’ & ‘hell’ in my opinion & the Bantams fans will be glad to see the back of this season.
Grant McCann’s Donny seemed to have blown their playoff chances following a poor run of form that allowed the manager’s former club, Posh, to overtake them & into the coveted sixth place after losing heavily at Champions elect Luton. Two welcome home victory’s over Bristol Rovers & Walsall along with yet another Posh stutter has seen Rovers with a healthy five-point lead over the chasing pack.
Seven goals in the last two games have seen Donny recover their swagger & they’ll have far too much for the struggling Bantams here.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
BURTON ALBION v BARNSLEY
o Burton Albion are winless in their three games against Barnsley at home (D2 L1), drawing the first two contests 0-0 and losing 4-2 in their most recent encounter in October 2017.
o Barnsley have only lost one of their eight encounters in all competitions against Burton (W3 D4 L1), keeping five clean sheets in the process.
o Burton Albion are looking to record three consecutive league victories for the first time since April 2018, when they were in the Championship.
o Barnsley haven’t conceded in any of their last four away games in League One (W2 D2) – only once previously in their history have they kept a clean sheet in five consecutive away league games (between November and December 1980).
o Lucas Akins has been directly involved in seven goals in his last four league appearances for Burton (five goals and two assists), scoring at least once in each game.
Our view
Three wins in the last four games have had Albion fans dreaming of an unlikely top six place but I fear their inconsistency for most of the season will see the Brewers miss out but a top half finish along with a wonderful Carabao Cup run that saw them reach the semi-finals adds up to a more than useful campaign following last season’s relegation.
Second-placed Barnsley have started to feel a chilly wind emanating from the North-East as they continue their charge towards promotion with this difficult looking game at the Pirelli. Ironically just as rivals Sunderland are starting to win games the Tykes are “doing a Sunderland” by drawing matches they should win.
Difficult one to predict this one so I’m going for a potentially damaging draw for the Yorkshiremen.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
FLEETWOOD TOWN v SOUTHEND UNITED
o Fleetwood have never won a home game against Southend, with their first four meetings ending level (L1).
o Southend won on their previous visit to Highbury last season, with four different Southend players on the scoresheet, Simon Cox opening the scoring after just two minutes.
o Fleetwood have won their last two games and are looking to record three consecutive wins in all competitions for the first time under Joey Barton.
o Kevin Bond will take charge of his first game as a manager since August 2008, when his Bournemouth side were beaten 3-1 by Port Vale in the fourth tier.
o Paddy Madden has had a hand in 21 goals in League One this season (14 goals and seven assists); the most of any Fleetwood player.
Our view
The last four league matches sums up the Cod Army’s season, two wins following two defeats adds up to frustrating inconsistency for Joey Barton’s talented side. A top half finish is still an encouraging start to Barton’s first season as an EFL manager.
The best thing to say to the new incumbent of the Roots Hall hot seat, Kevin Bond, is “good luck”! The Shrimpers are amazingly still above the bottom four courtesy of their vastly superior goal difference (which could be vital) but their current form is woeful, no wins & only four points from their last available thirty.
Joey’s lads to make it five straight defeats for the beleaguered Essex side.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
LUTON TOWN v BLACKPOOL
o Luton have lost just one of their last 15 home games in all competitions against Blackpool (W11 D3), with Blackpool’s most recent visit coming in May 2017, a 3-3 draw in the League Two play-off semi-final second leg.
o Since losing six successive encounters with Luton between December 2003 and April 2017, Blackpool have remained unbeaten in the last three (W1 D2), drawing 0-0 in the reverse fixture.
o Since the start of last season, only Manchester City (187) have scored more goals than Luton (172) in the top four tiers of English football.
o Blackpool have gone eight consecutive games without a clean sheet in League One – their longest run without one since between November 2017 and January 2018 (also eight).
o Jack Stacey has made more assists than any other defender in League One this season (7), while he’s also made the most of any Luton player.
Our view
You have to admire the way that Luton, firstly with Nathan Jones & latterly Mick Harford at the helm, have dominated the division from start to finish playing wonderful football with goals galore coming from all areas of the pitch. Seven points clear of Barnsley in second with six games left – it’s only a matter of time before the title is presented to them at fortress Kenilworth Road.
It’s hard to wipe the smile from Pool’s fans faces right now. Oyston free with their talented team playing in front of real crowds & still having an outside chance of grabbing a playoff place under Terry McPhillips’ excellent stewardship. Recent form has made their involvement in the end of season shenanigans unlikely but the Tangerines should be a team to watch out for next season.
No slipups from the Hatters here.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
PETERBOROUGH UNITED v GILLINGHAM
o Peterborough are winless in their last four home league meetings with Gillingham (D2 L2), last recording a victory in April 2014.
o Peterborough haven’t completed a league double over Gillingham since the 1990-91 season, the only occasion they’ve such a feat.
o Following their 2-0 win over Southend last time out, Peterborough are looking to record back-to-back wins in League One for the first time since October 2018.
o Gillingham have only lost one of their last seven away games in League One (W3 D3), scoring at least once in each fixture.
o Marcus Maddison has made 12 assists in League One this season; twice as many as the Peterborough player with the second-most (Siriki Dembélé – 6).
Our view
Saturday’s welcome win over troubled Southend ended a run of three defeats for Darren Ferguson’s men & at least kept eighth-placed Posh in the playoff hunt but the London Road side cannot afford any more slip-ups as they host rapidly improving Gillingham.
Steve Lovell’s battling Gills side are within touching distance of safety after a great recent run of form which has seen the Kent side taste defeat only once in their last seven in the League & are currently in thirteenth place, six points clear of danger.
The dream dies for Posh here I’m afraid.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
PLYMOUTH ARGYLE v CHARLTON ATHLETIC
o Plymouth have only won one of their last eight league contests against Charlton (D2 L5), a 2-0 victory at Home Park in August 2017.
o Charlton have scored exactly two goals in seven of their last eight matches versus Plymouth, only failing to find the net in a 2-0 loss in August 2017.
o Plymouth are unbeaten in their eight home league games in 2019 (W5 D3), scoring 17 goals at an average of 2.1 per game.
o No team have conceded fewer goals than Charlton in League One in 2019, with the Addicks allowing just eight goals in 14 games.
o 13 of Freddie Ladapo’s 16 goals in League One this season have been scored at Plymouth’s Home Park (81%).
Our view
Argyle, five points clear of danger in fourteenth place still cannot afford to relax with work still to be done to alleviate any lingering relegation fears as they prepare to host Lee Bowyer’s playoff bound Addicks at Home Park.
The fifth-placed Londoners currently enjoying an eight-game unbeaten run are virtually assured of a playoff place & will be keen to extend this run further as they prepare for their three-game season in May.
Another bumper Home Park crowd will see Argyle put their fear of the drop to bed at last.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
ROCHDALE v SUNDERLAND
o Rochdale will be hosting Sunderland in a competitive match for the first time in their history.
o Sunderland won the reverse fixture 4-1 in September thanks to braces from both Josh Maja and Lynden Gooch.
o Rochdale are unbeaten in their last four league games (W2 D2); this after losing each of the four games beforehand.
o Sunderland have lost the fewest games (2) and conceded the fewest goals (16) of any team away from home in League One this season.
o Ian Henderson has scored 10 league goals at the Crown Oil Arena in 2019 – he last netted more home goals in a single league campaign in 2014-15 (15).
Our view
Brian Barry-Murphy takes charge of Dale for the first time as a permanent manager with his team’s four-game unbeaten run certain to be severely tested by the Mackem express.
Next to bottom Dale’s recent run has at least given them a chance of avoiding the drop but his team will have to produce their performance of the season to gain any reward from this game.
The Black Cats comfortably brushed aside Stanley’s challenge in midweek & are in fine form as they chase down Barnsley in the race for second place & I confidently predict Dale will be dispatched with similar ease.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
SHREWSBURY TOWN v SCUNTHORPE UNITED
o After a 17-game winless streak between January 1999 and October 2016 (D5 L12), Shrewsbury have won four of their last five games in all competitions against Scunthorpe (L1).
o Scunthorpe have lost just one of their last eight league visits to Shrewsbury (W4 D3), although that defeat came in their most recent trip, losing 2-0 in September 2017.
o Shrewsbury have only won two of their last eight home games in League One (D3 L3), while failing to score in five of those fixtures.
o Scunthorpe have taken just four points from their last possible 24 in League One (W1 D1 L6), losing each of their last three games.
o Greg Docherty has made eight assists in League One this season, while no other Shrewsbury player has made more than four.
Our view
Another vital clash at the New Meadow between two clubs fighting the drop.
Two wins from their last three has seen Sam Ricketts Shrews pull four points clear of trouble & another victory should see the Shropshire teams fans relax a little with five games left.
Iron boss Andy Dawson has a mightily difficult task if he’s to maintain League One status following a potentially disastrous three-game losing run, two of which suffered at the hands of rivals Rochdale & AFC Wimbledon which is bound to affect already fragile confidence within the camp.
Another three points for the Shrews.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
WALSALL v OXFORD UNITED
o Walsall are unbeaten in their last five games against Oxford (W3 D2), recording wins in each of the last three contests by a 2-1 scoreline.
o Walsall’s last five home games against Oxford have seen both teams score, Walsall netting nine goals and conceding 11.
o Walsall have lost nine of their last 12 games in League One (W2 D1 L9), including each of the last four in a row.
o Oxford are on a three-game winning run in League One; they’ve not won four in a row since August 2017 (five consecutive wins).
o George Dobson has assisted three goals in his last five appearances in League One, with two of those coming at the Banks’s Stadium.
Our view
Karl Robinson takes his improving Oxford side to the West Midlands hoping to put any lingering relegation fears to bed after a four-game unbeaten run lifted them to a lofty twelfth place & a healthy seven-point gap over the bottom four.
A disastrous four-game losing run has propelled the Saddlers back in the drop zone & Dean Keates will be desperate for victory if only to give his team a fighting chance going into the final five games.
This won’t be pretty as the Saddlers will fight hard for the three points but the rejuvenated U’s will keep them at bay to collect another point nearer safety.
PREDICTION NO SCORE DRAW
WYCOMBE WANDERERS v PORTSMOUTH
o After failing to win any of their seven meetings against Portsmouth between December 2013 and September 2016, Wycombe have won two of their last three games (D1), including their last home game against Pompey in February 2017.
o Portsmouth have only ever lost one league game versus Wycombe (W3 D5), a 1-0 defeat on their last such trip to Adams Park in February 2017.
o Wycombe have dropped 24 points from leading positions in League One this season; the most of any team.
o Portsmouth have only lost one of their last 10 league games (W4 D5), winning each of the last three in a row.
o No Wycombe player has scored more goals (6) or made more assists (5) than Joe Jacobson in League One this season.
Our view
SEVEN defeats in their last eight games have plunged the Chairboys from midtable comfort into the dogfight at the foot of the table. Gareth Ainsworth’s side are worryingly the worst side in the league based on the last ten games so the visit of Kenny Jackett’s playoff-bound Pompey fresh from their Wembley success won’t have helped confidence levels around Adams Park.
Virtually assured of a playoff place Pompey may well experiment in this game possibly resting players that fought for 120 minutes at Wembley only six days previously but I’m sure Kenny Jackett will field a strong competitive side.
A surprise Chairboys success here methinks.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
SUNDAY 7 APRIL 2019
COVENTRY CITY v BRISTOL ROVERS
o Coventry have won 10 of their last 12 home league games against Bristol Rovers (D2), last tasting defeat in January 1928.
o Bristol Rovers have never kept a clean sheet in 14 league visits to Coventry City, conceding 35 goals in total (avg 2.5 per game).
o Coventry have only lost two of their last 10 games in League One (W5 D3), only failing to score in one fixture during this run (0-1 v Oxford in March).
o Bristol Rovers have suffered just one defeat in their last nine away league games (W5 D3), however that did come on their most recent away trip (1-4 v Doncaster).
o Jordy Hiwula-Mayifuila has netted nine league goals for Coventry in 2018-19, while he’s never previously scored 10 in a single campaign in the Football League.
Our view
A run of only two defeats in ten have taken the Sky Blues to ninth place & an outside chance of the playoffs but those two defeats have been in their last five games so realistically Cov fans will have to be satisfied with a solid first season back in the third tier as the club’s hierarchy strive to solve the worrying off the field politics that has blighted the club recently.
Fans of the Gas have seen their recent good form stall with successive losses to good Donny & Luton sides but Rovers are still three points clear of the bottom four but need results to achieve safety.
Despite their recent defeats Graham Coughlin’s side remain competitive & ran Luton close & with the exceptional form of deadline day signing Clarke-Harris I’m tipping the Gas to take this narrowly.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
words Ian Bradley, D3D4 roving reporter and predictions guru