May the fourth be with you. Saturday sees the conclusion of one of the most exciting & unpredictable third tier seasons for a long time
Many congratulations to the fans of Luton Town & Barnsley on their deserved promotion which was decided due to defeats of challengers Portsmouth & Sunderland.
This weekend the destination of the League One title is still to be decided as is the sixth & final playoff place, a straight fight between Doncaster & Peterborough.
At the bottom the three remaining relegation places will be filled & supporters of five clubs, AFC Wimbledon, Southend, Plymouth, Scunthorpe & Walsall will be praying it isn’t them.
For the last time this season here goes…………………
BLACKPOOL v GILLINGHAM
o Blackpool have won three of their last four league games against Gillingham (D1), keeping clean sheets in each of their victories.
o Gillingham are winless in their last 12 league visits to Blackpool (W6 D6), although five of their last six trips have ended in a draw.
o Blackpool ended their five game winless run at Bloomfield Road with a win against Fleetwood last time out, they haven’t won two in a row at home since December.
o Gillingham haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last nine league games since a 1-0 win over Oxford in March.
o Gillingham striker Tom Eaves has scored seven headed goals this season; two more than any other player in League One.
Our view
A meaningless end of season encounter between two clubs who will definitely lock horns in next season’s L1. Steve Lovell’s surprise departure from the Priestfield hot seat has saddened me as I thought he did a reasonable job considering the constraints he worked under.
This game may well have a pre-season friendly feel about it as the players will only be playing for future contracts etc, however Pool are much the stronger side & should win this.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
BRADFORD CITY v AFC WIMBLEDON
o This will be the 11th meeting in all competitions between Bradford City and AFC Wimbledon, there has never been a draw in the previous 10, both sides winning five games each.
o AFC Wimbledon won 4-0 at Valley Parade last season to end a run of three successive losses in all competitions on the road at Bradford.
o Bradford ended an eight game winless streak with their victory against Scunthorpe last weekend (D1 L7), the Bantams haven’t won two in a row since New Year’s Day.
o AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten in their last seven league away games (W4 D3), their best run since nine successive games in November 2016.
o Joe Pigott’s 15 goals have won 19 points for AFC Wimbledon in League One this season; two more than any other player in the division.
Our view
Can Wally Downes & his Don’s team continue the fantastic form that has transformed them from almost certain relegation to a remarkable survival success? Doomed Bantams seem to be ideal opponents but Gary Bowyer’s battlers showed they can still bite with a good if unexpected win at Scunny last time out so the Dons shouldn’t take the Yorkshiremen lightly.
The Dons have the momentum & form to complete the job.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
BRISTOL ROVERS v BARNSLEY
o Bristol Rovers will be hosting Barnsley in a league game for the first time since November 1992, when the Tykes won 5-1 in a second-tier match.
o Barnsley have won each of their last four games in all competitions against Bristol Rovers, including a 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture in October.
o Bristol Rovers have the worst home record of any League One side this season, picking up just 21 points from 22 games (W5 D6 L11), as well as being the lowest scorers in the division (22 home goals).
o Barnsley have won four successive league games in a row for the first time since February 2016 when they won seven consecutive matches, a season they won promotion to the second tier.
o Barnsley’s Cauley Woodrow has found the net in five of his last six League One appearances (5 goals), only failing to score against Shrewsbury
Our view
Daniel Stendell’s promoted Tykes make the long trip south to face the now safe Gas knowing that three points along with a Kenilworth Road slip up by Luton would give the South Yorkshire side the L1 title.
Graham Coughlin’s Gas have limped towards safety recently but despite not being at their best form wise got there in the end. Who knows what would have happened if Coughlin hadn’t been appointed & the Gas didn’t take a punt on a certain out of form Coventry striker in January.
Rovers will give them a game but Barnsley to win narrowly.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
CHARLTON ATHLETIC v ROCHDALE
o Charlton have won six of their eight home games in all competitions against Rochdale (D1 L1), although they’ve only won one of the last three.
o Rochdale have lost just one of their last six league encounters with Charlton (W3 D2), winning the last two by a 1-0 scoreline.
o Charlton have won each of their last five home league games, they haven’t won six in a row at the Valley since September 2017.
o Rochdale have won each of their last three games to secure safety in League One, they haven’t won four in a row since a run of five in January 2017.
o Ian Henderson has either scored or assisted in Rochdale’s last three games (2 goals, 1 assist), with the Dale winning 1-0 in each contest.
Our view
Lee Bowyer’s playoff bound Addicks may well use this game to try out formations & tactics in readiness for what is effectively a three game season for the Londoners. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he rest some vital players for this game.
When club legend Keith Hill was sacked just a few short weeks ago I feared for Dale who at that time looked to be staring L2 in the face. Up stepped affable Irishman & ex Dale defender Brian Barry-Murphy & a minor miracle in Lancashire was achieved. A genuine contender for manager of the season in my book.
With Dale safe & the Addicks looking ahead to more important matters this could either be boring as …. or an open exciting affair with no fear factor as to the result, I hope it’s the latter.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
DONCASTER ROVERS v COVENTRY CITY
o Coventry haven’t completed a league double over Doncaster since the 2012-13 season, the only occasion they’ve achieved such a feat.
o Coventry have only won once in their 12 visits to Doncaster in the league (D5 L6), losing 2-0 on their last two trips.
o Doncaster are winless in their last three games (D1 L2), this after winning four consecutive games beforehand.
o Coventry’s last four league away games have seen 19 goals and both teams score, as many goals as in their previous nine on the road.
o Doncaster striker John Marquis has only found the net twice in his last 12 League One appearance, this after nine goals in his 12 games beforehand.
Our view
This game will put to bed any notion of Donny “bottling” their hard earned playoff chance. It’s not hard to come to that conclusion though as some worryingly poor recent form has given rivals Posh a sniff of a chance of overhauling Rovers on the final day.
Cov have had a decent season after last May’s wembley success & I genuinely hope the rumours are true that the club can continue playing at the Ricoh next season.
Donny need to & will win here.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
LUTON TOWN v OXFORD UNITED
o Luton are unbeaten in their last 14 Football League clashes with Oxford (W9 D5), winning each of the last two.
o Oxford are winless in their last eight Football League visits to Kenilworth Road (D3 L5), last winning in May 1987.
o Luton had conceded just eight goals in their first 15 games of 2019, however they’ve conceded nine in the last five, including 2+ goals on four occasions.
o Since losing 1-0 to Gillingham in March, Oxford are unbeaten in their last nine (W6 D3), winning each of their last three on the road.
o Luton have scored 20 goals in the final 15 minutes of games in League One this season; more than any other side in the division.
Our view
The promoted Hatters can revert to playing the open expansive football they are known for now the pressure is off & they are a Championship club as they bid to win the title. Recent results & performances haven’t been the best & a visit from Karl Robinson’s on form U’s won’t be easy.
This will be a more competitive game than Luton expect & I can see Oxford spoiling the Kenilworth Road party.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
PETERBOROUGH UNITED v BURTON ALBION
o Peterborough are winless in their two home games in all competitions against Burton, drawing 0-0 in an FA Cup first round game in November 2005 and losing 1-0 in January 2016 in the league.
o The away side have won in each of the last three encounters between Peterborough and Burton, the Posh winning twice and the Brewers winning once.
o Peterborough have won three of their last five home games (D1 L1), as many as in their previous 15 on home soil.
o After failing to score in three consecutive games between February and March, Burton have netted in each of their last 10 League One games, scoring 23 goals in total.
o Burton’s Lucas Akins has been directly involved in 12 goals in his last 10 League One appearances (8 goals, 4 assists), scoring both last time out in the Brewers’ 2-1 win over Luton.
Our view
Posh’s fine midweek victory over Pompey gives Darren Ferguson’s side a slight chance of pipping Doncaster to the last playoff place.
Opponents Burton are bang on form right now & have a fine recent record in stalling the top teams promotion aspirations, just ask Luton, Barnsley, Sunderland etc
Two very decent teams here who may cancel each other out ending Posh’s playoff bid.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
PLYMOUTH ARGYLE v SCUNTHORPE UNITED
o There hasn’t been a draw between Plymouth and Scunthorpe in the last 15 league encounters, Plymouth winning seven and Scunthorpe winning eight.
o After losing five successive away games at Plymouth between March 1999 and October 2009, Scunthorpe have won both of their last two trips.
o Plymouth have lost each of their last five league games, their longest run of consecutive defeats since September 2011 (eight games).
o Scunthorpe have picked up just two points from their last 24 available (D2 L6), failing to score in three of their last four.
o Plymouth have scored more goals from corners situations at home than any other League One side this season (9).
Our view
With both teams in awful form, managerless & in the bottom four can any of these teams win & give themselves a chance of saving themselves? Long serving Pilgrims boss Derek Adams fell on his sword after the weekend & caretaker Kevin Nancekivell will be desperate for a first win in nine against the similarly desperate Iron who if anything are on even worse form gaining only two points from the last eight games.
The expected large Home Park crowd may well be a deciding factor in cheering Argyle to a very nervy three points.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
PORTSMOUTH v ACCRINGTON STANLEY
o Portsmouth have only lost one of their last seven games against Accrington in all competitions (W3 D3), a 1-0 loss on the road in September 2016.
o Accrington have failed to score in four of their five trips to Fratton Park in all competitions (W1 D1 L3), including each of the last three.
o Portsmouth lost for the first time in eight home league games in midweek against Peterborough (W4 D3). They last lost consecutive league games at Fratton Park in March 2018 (a run of three).
o Accrington Stanley have won three of their last four League One games (L1), as many as in their previous 19 (D5 L11).
o Sean McConville has been directly involved in six of Accrington’s last nine League One goals (4 goals, 2 assists), including each of the last four.
Our view
Kenny Jackett’s most important job coming into Pompey’s final game of the regular season will be to pick his dispirited team off the floor following their dissapointing midweek defeat by Posh, a result that finally ended their hopes of automatic promotion. As with Charlton the Pompey boss may want to rest players for the playoff battle ahead & try out different tactics, players etc.
I am impartial in my previews but I have to congratulate & express my delight over Stanley’s success in preserving their third tier status. The Chairman, management, players & above all the fans have made the Wham a great place to visit with their warm friendly welcome to all visitors & on their day they can play a bit too.
Stanley will want to end a fraught season in the manner they started it whereas Pompey will want to end the season on a high & send the Pompey hordes home with hope going into the playoffs…..draw
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
SHREWSBURY TOWN v WALSALL
o Shrewsbury have won just two of their last 17 league encounters with Walsall (D6 L9), winning once in the previous 10 (D3 L6).
o Walsall have failed to score in their last two league games against Shrewsbury, as many as in their previous 19.
o Shrewsbury have only won two of their 10 home league games in 2019 (D4 L4), with two of those losses coming in the last three at home.
o Walsall have only registered one point from their last eight League One games on the road (D1 L7), losing each of the last four.
o Walsall have conceded 15 goals in the opening 15 minutes of League One action this season; more than any other side in the division.
Our view
Shrews boss Sam Ricketts can count his first foray into EFL management a success after steering his team away from danger quite comfortably in the end.
The third bottom Saddlers head to their near neighbours knowing only a win would give them any hope of avoiding a return to the fourth tier following a disasterous second half of the season. They come into this do or die encounter boosted by a very impressive 3-0 win over playoff chasing Posh & they will no doubt give everything for Martin O’Connor here.
Curtains for Walsall im afraid.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
SOUTHEND UNITED v SUNDERLAND
o There has never been a draw in the 15 league meetings between Southend and Sunderland – the Shrimpers winning six compared Sunderland’s nine.
o Sunderland have won five of the last six league encounters against Southend (L1), keeping clean sheets in each of those five victories.
o Southend have only won once in their last 17 league games (D6 L10), although this was in their most recent match at Roots Hall, beating Burton Albion 3-2.
o Sunderland’s defeat at Fleetwood in midweek ended a run of 10 games without a loss on the road in League One (W4 D6).
o Sunderland have found the net in 44 of their 45 league games this season, more than any other side in the top four tiers of English football.
Our view
The Mackems suffered only their fourth league defeat of the season at Fleetwood in midweek, a result that ended any hope of a top two finish so Jack Ross & his Black Cats will be looking to prepare for the playoffs later this month.
Kevin Bond’s elation over their recent victory over Burton turned to despair over a potentially fatal 1-0 defeat at rivals Rochdale as the Shrimpers seek to avoid falling into League 2. A poor return of only six points from the last thirty available have made the Essex side particularly vulnerable & I simply can’t see even an understrength Sunderland not winning this.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
WYCOMBE WANDERERS v FLEETWOOD TOWN
o Each of the five Football League meetings between Wycombe and Fleetwood have failed to see either side score more than once.
o Wycombe are unbeaten in their two home league games against Fleetwood, winning 1-0 in March 2013 and drawing 1-1 in February 2014.
o Wycombe ended their six-game winless run at home last time out with a victory over Walsall, they haven’t won successive home games since January.
o Fleetwood have lost four of their last five League One away trips (W1), conceding 2+ goals in each defeat.
o Wycombe’s Adebayo Akinfenwa has failed to find the net in his last eight league games at Adams Park, his longest drought since September 2017 (10 games).
Our view
If the rumours are to be believed this could be Gareth Ainsworth’s final game as the Chairboys manager as he is odds on favourite for the vacant manager’s job at Championship QPR, a club he played for with distinction. If he does depart Adams Park his considerable achievement in securing third tier status along with last season’s promotion will cement Gareth’s club legend status.
Joey’s Cod Army make the long trip south in good spirits with a fine season under their belts culminating in the considerable scalp of Sunderland who they beat 2-1 in midweek.
This will be a very watchable end of season encounter with a few goals methinks.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW.
Based on my predictions it will be Walsall, Scunthorpe & Southend that will be joining Bradford in League Two next season while at the other end of the table it will be Barnsley as Champions with Luton as runners up & Doncaster taking the final playoff place but as always I could be very, very wrong!
words Ian Bradley, D3D4 roving reporter and League One expert