Virtually every game played now has an effect on matters at the top & bottom of the division. Here’s my take on what may happen in this weekend’s matches.
SOUTHEND UNITED v BARNSLEY
o Southend have won two of their last three league games against Barnsley (L1), as many as they had in the previous 13 combined (W2 D5 L6).
o Barnsley lost their most recent league trip to Roots Hall (1-2) – they haven’t lost consecutive away league games at Southend since December 1992.
o Southend have failed to win any of their last six League One games (D3 L3) – they last went longer without a league victory in September 2017 (run of seven).
o Despite drawing each of their last two games, Barnsley are unbeaten in League One since a 0-1 defeat against Wycombe back in December (P14 W9 D5 L0 since) – only Luton Town (21 games) are currently on a longer unbeaten run than Barnsley across the top four tiers of English Football.
o Barnsley’s Cauley Woodrow has scored six league goals in 2019, including four in his last four – only Luton’s James Collin’s (nine) has scored more goals in League One since the turn of the year.
Our view
Saturday’s early game sees Daniel Standel’s promotion-chasing Tykes head to the Kent coast still unbeaten since December 8 at Wycombe, FOURTEEN games ago & a return to the second tier they left in May looks a probability rather than a possibility. Successive goalless draws with Burton & Pompey have slowed down their progress a little so the South Yorkshire outfit will be looking for a maximum return from this one especially with the resurgent Sunderland breathing down their necks in 3rd place.
Thirteenth place Southend are in a poor run of form & are winless in their last six in the league. They sit seven points clear of trouble but if this poor form continues Chris Powell’s talented outfit could see themselves dragged into a late-season relegation fight.
Barnsley have already tasted victory at Roots Hall this season (4-2 in the FA Cup) & should be confident of a repeat here but the hosts shouldn’t be taken lightly as their recent comeback from 3-0 down to gain a point v Pompey showed but I’m going for a Tykes win.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v COVENTRY CITY
o Accrington Stanley are unbeaten in their three meetings with Coventry in the Football League (W2 D1), keeping a clean sheet in two of the three games.
o This exact fixture was played for the first time in the Football League last season, with Accrington winning 1-0 at the Wham Stadium in October 2017.
o This match will be Accrington’s third consecutive league game at home (W1 D1) – they last played three home games on the bounce in league football in March 2016, whilst in League Two.
o Coventry have kept two clean sheets in their last three games (W2 D1) – as many as in their previous 18 League One matches.
o Jordy Hiwula-Mayifuila has been directly involved in three of Coventry’s last five League One goals (2 goals, 1 assist).
Our view
Mark Robins takes his in-form Sky Blues to Lancashire boosted by his team’s fine 1-1 draw with Luton at fortress Kenilworth Road last time out, a result that stretched their unbeaten record to four games & left last season’s League 2 playoff winners comfortably placed in tenth.
John Coleman’s Accy have halted their recent slide when they followed up their good point at the Stadium of Light with victory over Oxford & a battling draw with Southend. Like the Shrimpers they are on 41 points & need results if they are not going to be involved in a relegation scrap.
A close game is anticipated & I’m going for a share of the spoils in this game.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
BRISTOL ROVERS v BLACKPOOL
o Bristol Rovers have only lost one of their last six league games against Blackpool (W4 D1), with their only defeat coming back in April 2000 (1-2).
o Blackpool have lost their last two away league games at Bristol Rovers – they’ve never previously lost on three successive league trips there.
o Bristol Rovers have won just one of their last eight league games (D5 L2), a 2-1 victory against Southend in February.
o Blackpool have failed to score in back-to-back league games (against Charlton and Oxford) – they last failed to score in three consecutive games in January 2018.
o Bristol Rovers have the lowest shot conversion rate in League One (7.75%), scoring just 31 of their 400 attempts on goal.
Our view
The Gas suffered only their second defeat in ten last weekend, going down at home to a resurgent Sunderland, a result that saw Graham Coughlin’s men fall back into the relegation places so a win against play-off chasing Blackpool is a must in this game.
Last weekend’s surprise home defeat to relegation-threatened Oxford was Pool’s first reverse in nine & severely hampers their chances of being involved in the play-off picture. This week’s news that the toxic Oyston family is slowly being eradicated from anything to do with Blackpool FC is music to the ears for their long-suffering fans AND football in general & I can see Terry McPhillips & his talented Tangerines taking advantage of the feel-good factor by winning here.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
BURTON ALBION v WALSALL
o Burton are looking to record a league double over Walsall for the first time, having won this season’s reverse fixture (3-1 in November 2018).
o This will be just the second league meeting between Burton and Walsall at the Pirelli Stadium – the previous clash finished 0-0 back in February 2016.
o Burton have failed to score in back-to-back home League One games (D1 L1) – they had only failed to score in two of their previous 19 home league matches prior to this run.
o Walsall’s 3-2 victory against Bradford last time out ending a run of five consecutive league defeats for the Saddlers – they last won back-to-back league games in August 2018 (run of three).
o Walsall have conceded 22 league goals from set-piece situations this season – the only League One side to conceded more are Rochdale (24).
Our view
Dean Keates & his Saddlers side make the short trip to the Pirelli Stadium in good heart following a great result & performance in coming back from a goal down to beat relegation-threatened Bradford last weekend. This result was even more remarkable considering they had to play 84 minutes with ten men following striker Andy Cook’s 6th-minute dismissal.
The mid-table Brewers suffered their first defeat in seven games when improving Fleetwood left the Pirelli with the points last weekend. Nigel Clough’s men are in mid-table limbo at the moment with little chance of promotion or relegation so I’m sure planning for next season will be high on his agenda but his players will be playing for contracts as well as professional pride so I’m tipping a draw here.
PREDICTION NO SCORE DRAW
DONCASTER ROVERS v CHARLTON ATHLETIC
o Only one of the previous 11 league meetings between Doncaster and Charlton have ended in a draw, with the Yorkshire side winning three and losing seven.
o Charlton are unbeaten in their last three league games against Doncaster (W2 D1), last suffering defeat against them back in January 2014.
o Doncaster Rovers have scored 31 goals across their last 11 home games in all competitions, losing just one of those matches (W8 D2 L1), a 0-2 defeat against Premier League side Crystal Palace in the FA Cup.
o Charlton have scored 22 goals from set piece situations in League One this season – more than any other side.
o No League One player has provided more assists this season than Doncaster’s James Coppinger (11).
Our view
Donny suffered a surprising & potentially damaging defeat at Shrewsbury in midweek, blowing one of their games in hand on play-off rivals & also giving hope & encouragement to their rivals. Grant McCann has said that his talented side must use this as a reality check as Lee Bowyer’s fifth-placed Addicks visit the Keepmoat this weekend.
Saturday’s victory over seemingly doomed Wimbledon maintained the Addicks comfortable seven-point gap on Posh & it would take a catastrophic loss of form to rob the Londoners of a play-off place following an impressive run of only one defeat in their last nine in the League.
I can see a tense game in which neither side want to lose but Donny are really good at home so I’m tipping Rovers to take this narrowly.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
FLEETWOOD TOWN v GILLINGHAM
o This will only be the 12th meeting between Fleetwood Town and Gillingham in the Football League. Fleetwood have won five compared to Gillingham’s four wins, along with two draws.
o Fleetwood have lost each of their last three league games against Gillingham, scoring just once, this after winning the previous three, scoring seven goals.
o Fleetwood have lost three of their last five home league games (W1 D1) – as many defeats as in their previous 18 such matches.
o There have been 102 goals scored in Gillingham’s 34 league games this season (45 four, 57 against) – only Rochdale (114) have seen more goals in their League One games so far this campaign.
o Fleetwood have dropped 21 points from winning positions this season – at least two more than any other League One side (Burton Albion, 19).
Our view
Joey’s eighth-place Cod Army are making a late bid for the playoffs & any side that can boast a Ched Evans/Paddy Madden strike force will score goals & have a chance of winning games. Four wins in their last six have given the Lancashire side genuine hope of forcing their way into the top six & will be confident of another three points as the relegation-threatened Gills make the long trip north this weekend.
Steve Lovell’s Gills are in reasonably good form as they battle against the drop & impressive recent victories over Scunthorpe & Wycombe have helped to maintain a five-point gap over the bottom four clubs. When they do lose however they tend to lose heavily & I can’t see the Gills defence handling the home side’s potent attack here.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
LUTON TOWN v ROCHDALE
o Luton are winless in five league games against Rochdale, last gaining victory against them in the third tier of English Football in April 1970 (2-1).
o Rochdale have beaten Luton just once in six Football League visits to Kenilworth road (D1 L4), doing so in the fourth tier back in October 2001 (0-1).
o Luton are currently on the longest unbeaten league run across the top four tiers of English Football (P21 W16 D5 L0), last suffering defeat at the hands of Barnsley back in October 2018 (2-3).
o Rochdale have conceded 4+ goals on nine occasions in League One during 2018-19 – at least four more than any other side across the top four tiers of English Football this season.
o Ian Henderson (16 goals) has scored 38% of Rochdale’s 42 League One goals this campaign – the highest percentage of any player for a side in the division.
Our view
The Hatters fourth & last league defeat of an incredible season came at Barnsley on the 13th October, TWENTY TWO games ago so I can’t see Keith Hill’s relegation-haunted Dale side looking forward to their visit to fortress Kenilworth Road too much.
Mick Harford’s champions-elect looked strangely out of sorts in their televised clash with Coventry last weekend & were perhaps fortunate to escape with a point but this visit from a Dale side who are short of both form & confidence looks like manna from heaven for the all-conquering Hatters.
Dale have conceded nine goals in their last two league games as they hurtle towards League Two & another heavy defeat to the goal-laden hosts looks very likely.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
OXFORD UNITED v SCUNTHORPE UNITED
o Oxford have won just once in their last nine league encounters with Scunthorpe (D5 L3) – a 2-1 home win in March 2017.
o Scunthorpe have not won any of their last four visits to Oxford in the third tier of English football (D1 L3), having won two of their previous three at this level beforehand (L1).
o Since a run of five consecutive home league victories ending in December 2018, Oxford have won just one of their last six such games since (D2 L3), a 2-1 victory against Portsmouth in January.
o Scunthorpe have drawn none of their last 12 away League one games (W4 D0 L8).
o No League One player has scored more goals this campaign without registering a single assist than Scunthorpe’s Lee Novak (10 goals, 0 assists – level with Barnsley’s Cauley Woodrow).
Our view
Relegation-threatened Oxford produced probably the result of the day last weekend winning 1-0 at in-form Blackpool, reigniting their hopes of avoiding the drop by moving out of the bottom four.
They come up against a Scunny side who despite losing two of their last four league matches remain on an upward curve after gaining a creditable point in the derby clash with Donny last time out.
Karl Robinson’s side will have to be at their very best to gain any reward from this clash with a combative, on form Iron side & I fear they’ll fall short.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
PETERBOROUGH UNITED v WYCOMBE WANDERERS
o Peterborough have only defeated Wycombe once in their last eight league encounters (D4 L3), a 2-1 win in the fourth tier in October 2007.
o Wycombe have scored in 17 consecutive league games against Peterborough, last failing to do so in a third-tier match, losing 3-0 in February 1996.
o Peterborough have won just one of their last seven league games (D2 L4), a 1-0 victory against Oxford.
o Wycombe are winless in their last five league games (D2 L3), losing each of their last three.
o Since the turn of the year, no League One player has had more attempts without finding the back of the net than Peterborough’s Marcus Maddision (17 shots, 0 goals).
Our view
A run of only one win in seven has severely hampered Posh’s ambitions of a place in the playoffs therefore a three-point haul in this clash with the mid-table Chairboys is a must for Darren Ferguson’s side.
As I have mentioned before the Chairboys have had a decent season under the astute management of Gareth Ainsworth but a worrying little run of five games without a win including three straight defeats have put a bit of a downer on the twelfth place side.
A surprising Donny defeat at Shrewsbury have given clubs like Posh & Fleetwood rendewed hope in their playoff push & in my opinion it will be just the motivation needed for Posh in this game.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
PORTSMOUTH v BRADFORD CITY
o After winning the reverse fixture in November 2018 (0-1), Portsmouth are looking to complete a league double over Bradford for the first time since doing so in the second tier in 2002/03.
o Bradford have won on three of their last four visits to Peterborough in the league (L1), including this exact fixture last season (0-1).
o Portsmouth have drawn five consecutive league games and are winless in their last eight League One matches (D5 L3).
o Bradford have failed to score in five of their last eight league contests, winning just one game during this period (W1 D3 L4), a 4-3 victory against Shrewsbury in January.
o Jack Payne has been directly involved in eight of Bradford’s 18 away league goals this campaign (5 goals, 3 assists).
Our view
Managerless (again) Bantams head to the South Coast desperate for some reward in their increasingly desperate bid to avoid dropping to League Two. Their latest defeat to ten-man Walsall was particularly damaging & cost David Hopkin his job at Valley Parade.
Wembley bound Pompey have to take the euphoria of their first trip to headquarters since 2008 into this vital home game as they strive to halt Kenny Jackett’s side’s alarming slide that has seen them winless in their last eight in the League severely hampering their automatic promotion hopes which looked nailed-on for so much of the season.
I can see Pompey returning to winning ways with victory over a hapless Bantams.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
SHREWSBURY TOWN v AFC WIMBLEDON
o This will be the 10th Football League encounter between these two sides, with Shrewsbury winning each of the last four.
o AFC Wimbledon are winless in four league visits to Shrewsbury (D1 L3), having scored just once in those games.
o Shrewsbury have won just one of their last five league games on home soil (W1 D2 L2), having won four of the five such games prior to this run (D1).
o AFC Wimbledon have won back-to-back away league games – they last won three on the bounce away from home in the Football League in October 2016 (run of three).
o Following his hat-trick against Rochdale, Joe Pigott will be aiming to score in back-to-back away league games for just the second time for AFC Wimbledon and for the first time since April 2018 when he found the net against Walsall and Wigan.
Our view
Sam Ricketts & his battling Shrews side took a giant step in their bid to avoid the drop with a mightily impressive win over playoff-chasing Donny in midweek & will feel confident in hammering another nail in the desperate Don’s relegation coffin with victory here.
Bottom side Wimbledon’s chink of light at the end of the tunnel following good wins over rivals Walsall & Rochdale was extinguished with another damaging defeat to playoff-bound Charlton at the weekend & the seven-point gap to 20th placed Oxford seems unsurmountable given recent form.
Another huge step towards safety for the Shrews in this one.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
SUNDERLAND v PLYMOUTH ARGYLE
o Having won the reverse fixture earlier in the season (2-0), Sunderland will be looking to complete a league double over Plymouth for the first time since 1988/89.
o Plymouth have won on two of their last three league visits to Sunderland (L1), having not won any of their first nine visits in the Football League before this (D1 L8).
o Sunderland remain the only side across the top four tiers of English Football to have scored in every league game so far this season.
o Plymouth have lost just one of their last 10 league games (W6 D3 L1), a 0-1 defeat against Wycombe in January.
o Sunderland have won 19 points from losing positions this season – four more than any other League one side (Charlton and Wycombe, both 15).
Our view
The Green Army face their longest trip of the season to face Jack Ross & his resurgent Black Cats in this fascinating clash in the North East.
Argyle have been nothing short of superb in January & February with exciting attacking football winning games & scoring goals for fun as they did in their five-goal hammering of a poor Rochdale side at the weekend. It’s just a shame Derek Adams side don’t like the early months of the season.
The Mackems can smell blood! Everyone knows they hardly ever lose but they’ve started to turn the frustrating draws into wins & are well placed to pounce on any slip-ups from the top two.
Another massive SOL crowd & electric atmosphere awaits & a fired up Black Cats side will win narrowly.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
words Ian Bradley, D3D4 roving reporter and predictions maestro