After some surprising mid-week results here’s my take on another set of vital fixtures as events at the top & bottom of the division continue to hot up.
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v ROCHDALE
o Accrington have never won a Football League home game against Rochdale (D1 L5), losing each of their last five, with the only point coming in their first ever meeting in August 2006.
o Rochdale have won 10 of their last 12 league encounters with Accrington (L2), winning each of the last three.
o Accrington Stanley have lost both of their last two home league games, last losing more in a row on home soil in October 2013 in League Two (run of four), which included a 1-2 defeat to Rochdale.
o Rochdale have lost five of their six away league games in 2019, winning the other 2-1 at Walsall in February.
o Rochdale’s Ian Henderson has both scored (16 – 36.4%) and been directly involved in (21, 16 goals, 5 assists – 47.7%) a higher proportion of his side’s goals than any other player in League One this season.
Our view
A vital Lancashire derby at the Wham Stadium as managerless Dale aim to continue their improved recent form with a positive result against John Coleman’s Accy side.
Four points from their last two games ended a worrying four-game losing streak for Dale but they really need wins at this stage of the season lying twenty-second & two points from safety.
Accy’s fine 3-1 win at Adams Park ended their three-game losing run & halted their slide towards danger but although they find themselves in fourteenth place they are still only four points clear of the bottom four & a win here would go a long way to preserving their place in the third tier for another season.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
BRISTOL ROVERS v CHARLTON ATHLETIC
o Bristol Rovers are winless in their last seven league games against Charlton (D3 L4), losing four of their last five.
o Bristol Rovers have only lost two of their last 20 home games in all competitions versus Charlton (W10 D8).
o Whilst Bristol Rovers have conceded a league-low six goals via set-piece scenarios this season, Charlton have scored the most from such situations in League One (24).
o Charlton have only lost one of their 12 league games in 2019 so far (W6 D5) and are unbeaten in six since losing 1-0 at Fleetwood in February (W3 D3).
o Lyle Taylor’s penalty against Burton Albion in midweek was Charlton’s 10th league goal scored from the spot this season, the first club to reach that total in the top four tiers of English football.
Our view
Deadline day signing Jonson Clarke-Harris continues to impress at the Mem with his fifth goal in as many games earning Graham Coughlin’s side to a vital victory at fellow strugglers Gillingham in midweek. Despite their third straight three-point haul, the Gas are still only three points above the dropzone in the tightest relegation battle in years & the momentum built up in these games must continue here.
With all the media attention in the division focused on the current top three clubs Lee Bowyer has quietly gone about his business with his talented side sitting fifth in the league & looking a shoo-in for a play-off place following good wins over Pompey & Burton in the last week.
Both teams are in good form & may well cancel each other out here but it’ll be entertaining.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
BURTON ALBION v BLACKPOOL
o This will be just the fourth Football League meeting between Burton and Blackpool, with the Brewers winning twice and losing once.
o Burton won their only previous home game against Blackpool in the Football League in January 2016, with Mark Duffy scoring the solitary goal in a 1-0 victory.
o Burton Albion are without a win in seven home games in all competitions (D4 L3), their longest such run since going 17 without a win between September 2017 and April 2018.
o Blackpool have only lost one of their last seven away league outings (W3 D3), keeping clean sheets in four of those matches.
o Burton boss Nigel Clough has won four of his five home league matches against Blackpool as a manager, losing the other 0-2 to Ian Holloway’s Blackpool side as Derby boss in December 2009.
Our view
One of the few League One clubs with nothing to play for manager Nigel Clough may have to ask his players to put down their holiday brochures & complete the season. Recent form has dipped as the Brewers look destined for a mid-table finish in their first season back in the third tier following relegation.
Things couldn’t be more different for the buoyant Tangerines. Two points only from their last two “homecoming day’s” have hampered their play-off bid but Pool are still only three points off a top-six place & right in the mix.
Terry McPhillips has done a fine job at Bloomfield Road & I expect their surge towards a play-off place to continue with a win at the Pirelli.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
FLEETWOOD TOWN v PLYMOUTH ARGYLE
o Both Fleetwood and Plymouth have an identical head-to-head record in the Football League – both winning three times each, with the other game ending level.
o Fleetwood are winless in their last two home league encounters with Plymouth (D1 L1) since winning their first ever clash in November 2012.
o Fleetwood have lost both of their last two league matches, and haven’t lost three in a row since April 2018.
o Plymouth have only scored one goal across their last four away league games (W1 D1 L2), this after having scored seven in the four beforehand.
o No side has lost more points from leading positions (21 – level with Wycombe Wanderers) or gained fewer after going behind (1 – level with Bradford City) in League One this season than Fleetwood Town.
Our view
Successive defeats to Walsall & Coventry have made the Cod Army’s playoff bid highly unlikely but the Highbury side have had a pretty good season under Joey Barton & his young talented team should make more of a challenge next season.
Argyle’s season has improved sensationally since the New Year & Tuesday’s late 2-1 win over Shrewsbury made it only one defeat in seven but although in twelfth place are still only five points from danger in this crazy division.
This long trip from Devon will be worthwhile for Derek Adams & his men.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
LUTON TOWN v GILLINGHAM
o Luton are unbeaten in seven games in all competitions against Gillingham at Kenilworth Road (W4 D3), although this is their first meeting since March 2009.
o Gillingham have won just two of their last eight league encounters with Luton (D1 L5), going winless in their last three (D1 L2).
o Luton’s current 24-game unbeaten run (W18 D6) is their best ever undefeated streak in the Football League and is the longest ongoing run of all sides in the top four tiers of English football.
o Gillingham have only lost one of their last five away league matches (W2 D2), a 2-4 loss at Sunderland in February.
o League One leaders Luton Town have made fewer changes to their starting line-ups (28) than any other side in the division this season, with the Hatters naming an unchanged XI in six of their last nine league outings
Our view
Mick Harford’s Champions elect put aside their blip of a draw at Plymouth by getting back to winning ways at Valley Parade in midweek & a second successive promotion can be regarded as a ‘when’ rather than ‘if’ as the Hatters form has been magnificent all season.
The Gills damaging mid-week defeat to the Gas has placed Steve Lovell’s men back in relegation danger after an encouraging spell & his men won’t be relishing a trip to fortress Kenilworth Road.
On paper, this looks to be a comfortable home win & I agree.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
OXFORD UNITED v BRADFORD CITY
o After winning nine of their first 11 home league games against Bradford (L2), Oxford have only recorded two victories in the following seven (D3 L2).
o Bradford have won three of their last four league games versus Oxford (D1), although those three victories came at Valley Parade.
o Oxford United boss Karl Robinson has only won one of his 10 League One meetings with Bradford City as a manager (D3 L6), a 1-0 win with Charlton in October 2017.
o Bradford have only won one of their last 15 away matches in all competitions (D6 L8), beating Rochdale 4-0 in December 2018.
o Jerome Sinclair has been directly involved in four of Oxford United’s last six league goals (two goals, two assists), including each of their last three at home (two goals, one assist).
Our view
One thing is certain in this vital game, it ain’t gonna be pretty as these two clubs try to escape their current bottom four places. A battling point in a frankly awful 0-0 draw at Rochdale in mid-week made it seven points from the U’s last four games, a reasonable return for a side battling the drop & another win here could take them out of the dropzone altogether.
Whatever happens to the Bantams this season relegation or otherwise I genuinely hope the trigger-happy board give new manager Gary Bowyer time & backing to turn around a catastrophic seven months for City & their magnificent supporters. A creditable performance in defeat at the hands of Championship bound Luton followed a fine win over Posh showing that Bowyer has unearthed battling qualities in his underperforming side. Whether this will be too late to save them time will tell but the Yorkshiremen are only four points from safety with nine games to go so anything can still happen.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
PETERBOROUGH UNITED v COVENTRY CITY
o Peterborough have lost just one of their last five home league games against Coventry (W3 D1), a 1-0 defeat in March 2015.
o Coventry have only tasted defeat in one of their previous seven encounters with Peterborough (W4 D2), with a current unbeaten run of three games (W1 D2).
o Peterborough are aiming to win back-to-back home league games for the first time since a run of three spread over April to August 2018.
o Coventry have only lost one of their last seven League One fixtures (W4 D2) and are unbeaten in three away from home (W2 D1).
o Marcus Maddison has been directly involved in each of Peterborough’s last seven league goals, scoring three and assisting four.
Our view
Seventh-placed Posh blew yet another opportunity to take advantage of Donny’s recent wobble in midweek losing to the bottom-placed Dons after last weekend’s drubbing at Bradford. Confidence seems low at London Road as they come up against play-off chasing Cov this weekend.
Mark Robins Sky Blues are making a late bid for the top six & their fine mid-week win over Fleetwood moved them up to ninth & only three points shy of the sixth & final play-off place. In fact, victory in this game would move City above Posh in the table & I can see the Midlands outfit taking advantage of Peterborough’s dip in form here.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
PORTSMOUTH v SCUNTHORPE UNITED
o Portsmouth ended a five-game winless league run against Scunthorpe by winning the reverse fixture in November – they’ve never won successive league games against the Iron.
o Portsmouth have lost just one of their last seven games in all competitions versus Scunthorpe at Fratton Park (W4 D2), a 2-1 defeat in November 2013.
o Portsmouth have only lost one of their last nine games at Fratton Park in all competitions (W4 D4) and are unbeaten in six (W2 D4) since losing 0-1 to Blackpool in January.
o Scunthorpe have lost their last three away league games, last losing four in a row in April 2017.
o No club has scored more goals in the opening 15 minutes of League One games this season than Scunthorpe (11, level with Charlton Athletic), however Portsmouth have only conceded one goal in this time period, a league-low.
Our view
Tuesday’s victory over Walsall cemented Pompey’s play-off place & opened up a very healthy thirteen point gap to seventh place for Kenny Jackett’s side as the Iron visit Fratton Park.
Stuart McCall’s teams welcome return to form in their 4-1 hammering over a faltering Southend halted an alarming slide & the Lincolnshire outfit are still by no means safe from the drop yet but do have a four-point buffer over the bottom four.
The longtime leaders to triumph here.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
SHREWSBURY TOWN v WYCOMBE WANDERERS
o Shrewsbury are winless in their last 10 home league games against Wycombe (D7 L3), with their last such victory coming in January 1994.
o There have only been eight goals Shrewsbury’s last eight home encounters in all competitions with Wycombe, with the home side netting just twice in this period.
o Shrewsbury have lost back-to-back league games, last losing three on the bounce within the same season in April 2017 (run of four).
o Wycombe are winless in eight league matches (D3 L5), their longest such run since August 2016 (nine games).
o No side has scored more goals in the final 15 minutes of League One matches this season than Wycombe Wanderers (16, level with Luton Town).
Our view
Most seasons there’s a team that falls from mid-table security into relegation danger & Gareth Ainsworth’s Chairboys certainly fit into this category on current form. A poor return of only three points from their last eight games is an extremely worrying statistic for the Adams Park side & although they sit in thirteenth place they’ll be in real trouble if their wretched form continues.
Sam Ricketts Shrews looked as though they were inching away from danger but successive defeats in the last week have sucked the Shropshire side back into danger.
This is an archetypal six-pointer which will probably end all square as both sides have forgotten how to win.
PREDICTION SCORE DRAW
SOUTHEND UNITED v AFC WIMBLEDON
o There has never been a draw in the six Football League matches between Southend and AFC Wimbledon at Roots Hall, with both sides winning three each.
o AFC Wimbledon have won each of their last two league games against Southend – the Dons have never recorded three successive victories against them.
o Southend’s nine-match run without a win (D4 L5) is the longest ongoing such streak in League One.
o AFC Wimbledon have won four of their last six league games (D1 L1), as many as their previous 24 combined beforehand (W4 D3 L17), and are looking to win three straight league contests for the first time since they won five in a row in League Two in April 2016.
o AFC Wimbledon’s Joe Pigott has been directly involved in six goals in his last five league games (four goals, two assists), as many as he was in his previous in his previous 29 such appearances beforehand.
Our view
The wheels seem to have come off down at Roots Hall with Chris Powell’s side right in the thick of a relegation fight following a horrendous nine-game winless run with Tuesdays 4-1 hammering at Scunthorpe leaving the Shrimpers only two points above the dropzone.
Can the Dons pull off the great escape to beat all great escapes? Six games ago they looked dead & buried but thirteen points later, still bottom but only four points from safety, Wally Downes & his side are giving it all they have & I’m tipping more success for them on the Essex Coast.
PREDICTION AWAY WIN
SUNDERLAND v WALSALL
o This is the fourth meeting between Sunderland and Walsall this season – drawing in the reverse fixture, with the Saddlers winning 1-0 at the Stadium of Light in an FA Cup second round replay after a 1-1 at the Bescot.
o Sunderland will be hosting Walsall in a league game for the first time since October 2003 when both sides were in the second tier, with Marcus Stewart bagging the only goal of the game in a 1-0 victory.
o Sunderland are unbeaten in 11 matches at the Stadium of Light in all competitions (W7 D4), with the last side to beat them there being Walsall in an FA Cup second round replay in December 2018.
o Walsall have won just once in their last 12 away league games (D3 L8), this after having won four of the five beforehand (D1).
o Walsall’s George Dobson, who has two assists in the club’s last two league games, has provided more assists (five) without yet scoring a goal himself than any other League One player yet to get on the scoresheet in the competition this season.
Our view
The Black Cats played out their umpteenth draw of a frustrating season, failing to cut the four-point gap between them & second placed Barnsley in mid-week.
Meanwhile, the Saddlers defeat by Pompey still leaves the Walsall two points clear of the bottom four in this astonishing fourteen club relegation fight in this crazy division & it could transpire that nothing will be settled until the ninety-fifth minute of the final day.
No problems for the Mackems in this game though.
PREDICTION HOME WIN
words Ian Bradley, D3D4 roving reporter and predictions guru