Football is an emotive sport, we all know that. The problem with emotions is they don’t always help us make the best decisions.

At the end of January Carlisle United supporters were waxing lyrical, and rightly so, about the exploits of their team and the man leading them. Chris Beech had, following a 1-0 win against Exeter, guided his team into second place in League Two, just three points behind Cambridge having played four games less.

It was a remarkable achievement for a club very much in the process of transition. Last summer presented so many challenges as football prepared for a season of complete unknowns yet Carlisle came out of it really well.

The excellent run that had seen the Cumbrians climb into the automatic promotion places was, however, to be cruely stopped following a COVID outbreak in the Carlisle squad which was then compounded by a series of postponements due to the weather and a freak power cut at Harrogate, a game that looked like it was cursed never to be played.

Since returning to action the Blues have been a shadow of their former selves. The Exeter game aside, they have not looked the same as they did prior to their COVID enforced break.

In fact, since the coming back they have won just two out of their 14 matches picking up nine points from a possible 42. It’s not great, granted, but with fans now calling for his head pressure is mounting on Chris Beech. Is this fair? Is anything in football? But I’d certainly not support any action that would see him leave Brunton Park.

Why? You ask. Here are five reasons to start you off…

1. It’s not his fault

In a parallel universe somewhere there is a Carlisle team to whom COVID and lockdowns would seem like alien terms plucked out of a science fiction novel. In that reality, Beech Ball is still working its magic and the Cumbrians are sat in the automatic promotion places. Unfortunately, we are not in that universe but it doesn’t make it the manager’s fault.

Unless you’ve had COVID or been an elite athlete, it is hard to describe what this horrible disease can do. Imagine an Olympic marathon runner being asked, whilst in full flow, to stop mid-race and conduct an interview or pop into the local for a pint. Then imagine asking them to continue the race at the same pace they were running before stopping. They wouldn’t be able to do it. This is the case for Carlisle United’s season. It is unrealistic to expect them to just continue on as before.

Cambridge manager Mark Bonner, quoted in the News and Star, summed it up quite nicely.

“They [Carlisle] didn’t play for a month and had 10 games cancelled. We felt the schedule shook us when we had [only] one game off,” he said.

“They’ve come out of this whole situation worse than anybody, with a number of times in isolation, players being ill, and the weather always hits them up there too.

“It had a huge impact on the season and took them away at the knees.”

2. The data suggests they are not far off it

Football data may not be for everyone, but it can be quite telling. Chris Beech is right when he says his side haven’t been getting the rub of the green. There’s no denying performances are not at the same intensity as before the enforced break, but the drop off has been more dramatic than it should be.

The last-minute defeat against Cambridge is an example of that. According to the match data produced by Experimental361, the Cumbrians had the better quality chances and could argue with some justification that they should have won the game.

Match data from Carlisle United vs Cambridge United from Experimental361

 

This is not isolated to that one game. If you look at the xG table for the current season Carlisle would still be in a very healthy position as you can see below:

Graphic and data from Experimental361

This will probably just add to the frustration of the Carlisle fans but it does show that things are not as bad as some are making out. Data doesn’t bring you wins but it does give a good idea about performances and where things are headed. If Carlisle carry on playing as they are the law of averages tells us they will start getting some wins again pretty soon.

3. Time is a great healer

If you cast your mind back to the end of January Carlisle’s heady heights were contrasted by Bolton’s underwhelming lows. The Trotters were sat in 19th place with just eight wins from 25 matches. For many Bolton fans, this was a nadir and the only cure was to sack Ian Evatt. In another dimension somewhere they probably did, but not in this one and now look where they are.

Wanderers are currently on a 13 match unbeaten run of which 11 have been wins. They are only outside the automatic promotion places on goal difference and they look the most likely side right now to bag automatic promotion.

The Bolton board deserve massive credit for showing some restraint and giving their manager time. Carlisle’s hierarchy should take note.

4. Is it really time for another reset?

For argument’s sake, let’s just pretend Carlisle sack Chris Beech tomorrow. What then? Do they hire yet another new boss, sign a whole new squad and reset the entire project back to zero. What if the new boss brings in an entire new team and it doesn’t get off to a good start? Do you sack him and repeat the process again?

Albert Einstein once said, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

Find me a club that have been successful by constantly chopping and changing managers? It doesn’t happen, or if it does it is extremely rare. Sometimes giving a manager time to build something is the only sensible way to go. Forest Green, Cheltenham and Newport are good examples of this. For Colchester, losing in the play-off semi-finals and reaching the League Cup quarter-finals last season was not enough to save John McGreal’s job – look where they are now.

5. Victim of his own success

If Carlisle were sat exactly where they are now but had done so through a more even run of results, would Chris Beech be under pressure? The very fact he took this youthful side to the top of the division is now weighing heavily on the minds of everyone but perhaps overachieving at the start of the season has turned out to be a poisoned challis.

Let’s be honest, no one expected the Cumbrians to be automatic promotion contenders and, the fact is, they probably still would be if it wasn’t for COVID, so why should it now be held against a manager that has put in some pretty solid foundations in the most challenging of circumstances? It shouldn’t.

Yes, the current run is massively disappointing but it is only because of success earlier in the season that being in mid-table is suddenly a sackable offence.

The truth is, we will never know how Carlisle’s season would have panned out if COVID hadn’t happened or if injuries to key players didn’t occur or the season wasn’t condensed in the way it now is. Chris Beech and this squad haven’t suddenly become poor overnight, there are extenuating factors that have combined in a season more unforgiving than normal.

This is a project and to cut it short just feels wrong for all the above reasons. Hopefully, those in power at Brunton Park agree.

words James Richards, D3D4 Football