Week 38: We’re Gonna Need A Bigger Picture
England has always had a classic club versus country issue so it was fitting that, as the national team were recording a victory over the #1 ranked team in world football, all that anyone in football was talking about was the leaked proposals from Liverpool and Manchester United that were described as ‘seismic’.
It felt, on first hearing, that it was a deliberate move that maximised the uncertainty of corona-times for the benefit of the biggest clubs. Two large Great Whites circling in for the kill, if you like, sensing weakness as the smaller fish thrashed around desperately for survival.
It was certainly a divisive move. While the Premier League, FA, supporter groups and the government voiced their varying degrees of disapproval, the EFL and most of its clubs have come out in favour. It contrasts the stark reality facing clubs ‘now’ with the ‘later’ that some of the proposed changes talk about and you sense that, as you would if bitten by a shark, you’d take survival now and worry about the lasting scars once you were out of immediate danger.
Henry Winter’s passionate rebuttal of the proposals in The Times seemed not so much about the actual content but about who was proposing. A case of right idea, wrong people? Ex-England international, Danny Mills, called it a ‘wolf in sheep’s clothing’ with a lot of good up front but with a big price down the line.
But there was a pattern. Despite their opposition, many of those same voices mentioned the word ‘change’ in one way or another. It was hard to deny that, whatever their motives, at least Liverpool and Manchester United had done everyone a favour by opening the can. And the proposals, if you put the ‘why’ to one side for a moment, did contain some genuinely interesting aspects that deserved proper debate. The timing of the leak – soon after the Premier League had scored a PPV own-goal – did appear a little iffy, but it is also crucial to make things happen if some lower league cubs are as close to the cliff edge as is feared.
EFL Chair, Rick Parry, was all over it with a ringing endorsement and that also caught the eye. In normal times, game-changing proposals are quickly kicked into the long grass as the people in power dislike change, and particularly that which is forced upon them. So the fact the EFL – the entity with the most to gain or lose because of the financial figures involved – were nailing their blue and red colours to the mast so quickly, there had to be some substance. Parry is the voice of 71 clubs, after all, so he wouldn’t put his money on a horse unless he knows it will have a lot of other backers.
So simply ‘food for thought’ proposals? A well-timed opportunist power grab? Big clubs biting the hand that feeds them? Or genuine concern for the lower leagues from an unlikely source? After a few days of countless talk in the media , I’m still not sure we know.
Operation Big Picture has quickly entered the lexicon, but to know if it’s a saviour, pariah, Trojan horse or none of the above will require the picture to become a lot clearer. Time for everyone to show their full hands. Time, maybe, for the various parties to put tribal differences aside.
I won’t waste words on the Big Picture details – by now, about a billion of them have been written; mostly outlining what it consists of. But forget the EFL Cup and Community Shield. This is about money (now!) and voting rights – i.e. who has control of key decisions – (in future) and as long as you bear that in mind, it’s a little easier to unpick and see where loyalties lie and why.
Football, of course, has a myriad of stakeholders, and nothing will ever please them all, but let’s try to look at it from the perspectives of the key ones.
The FA
Although the proposals seemed to pit some clubs against the Premier League, the FA remain a highly significant player in all this. When it was ‘announced’, the proposals attached two major sweeteners for them; money (a gift of £100m) in the short term and a smaller top-flight that would help the national team in the longer term. The first one, I’m sure, would not be dismissed lightly given the horrendous financial circumstances that almost every organisation who isn’t Amazon or in the pharmaceuticals sector is in right now, but the second should be. If this ever gets the green light, a smaller top league will pave the way for more games in European competitions in future (UEFA is looking at revamping the Champions League in 2024), so giving star players a breather isn’t a factor. Or realistic.
FA Chair, Greg Clarke wrote to FA members on Tuesday. Initially siding with the Premier League, the letter ends up with him firmly on the fence; not ruling anything completely in or out but urging everyone to work together to find changes that benefit ALL stakeholders. The phrase ‘unity, transparency and common sense overrides the interests of a few’ (that rules out the government, then) at the end suggests that the big clubs will need to show there is more to them than money if this is to get his organisation’s backing. But he also says that they are listening and could support changes if they went through the proper channels. There was also a not-too-subtle threat to any potential break-away that the FA is responsible for nominating the leagues, competitions and, thus, clubs, that play in Europe.
Part 2: The EFL, The Premier League, The ‘Big Six’ and The Other Fourteen
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The Big Six
Although Liverpool and Manchester United were named as co-conspirators in this, the other members of the so-called ‘Big 6’ – Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs – are also heavily linked, and if the talks have been ongoing behind closed doors for 3 years, as it’s been suggested, then you’d be foolish to think they aren’t involved. Although ‘more power’ seems obvious, and I don’t think any club wouldn’t want to get their teeth into it, most people in football would acknowledge that greater power at the top, and a thirst for more, has always been the case anyway.
There is another question, if only playing devil’s advocate. The current voting rules give each of the 20 teams one, equal vote. But should, and I’m only asking, a club that has been in the Premier League for 23 years and will be for another 23, have exactly the same power as one who gets there for the first time and nine months later, might be back in the EFL?
So far, it’s difficult to fully grasp the motives of Liverpool and United without more information. I’d like to think there is a genuine understanding that the Premier League depends on the pyramid below it and this is a heartfelt attempt to rectify the widening cash gap and improve the prospects of the whole of elite English football for years to come. The cynic in me finds that hard to do but I’d love to be proven wrong.
The Other Fourteen
Any vote in the Premier League needs 14 clubs to agree to get it passed. So, if the rest of the clubs outside the top six want to collectively veto anything, they can. It’s partly what the proposals are trying to change and it means that if a club is strongly against the plans – as West Ham have said they are – then they only need six more like-minded owners to get their way. Sort of.
But there is also a collective that can’t be ignored. The big 6 are only that because there are another 14 who, by definition, are smaller. Split them and it weakens everyone.
There is more of the short term v long term thinking here too. Project Big Picture would give the 9 clubs who have been in the PL for the longest the power. That means that Everton, Southampton and West Ham would currently join the Big 6 at the decision-making table. But, on form, the Big 6, plus Everton and Leicester City, are the only clubs that seem immune to relegation. In other words, 12 clubs are vulnerable to it and with two extra clubs leaving the Premier League under the proposals, it adds up to a lot of sleepless nights. Taking the short term view, West Ham (to pick on one) might think that 20 teams and parachute payments represent the best way forward today. An alternative view might be that, if relegation did happen and the club wasn’t able to get back up straight away, then the proposals offer much better longer-term financial terms for EFL clubs so that they don’t get into serious trouble in the way that the likes of Blackpool, Hull City, Portsmouth, Wigan and a few others have after losing their top-flight status.
I did see a fan tweet one view that we should ‘let the big 6 go and we have a better league without them.’ But while that might get some nods of agreement, the reality is it would be removing the thing that makes it so marketable. Just watch how much the TV deals decrease if that happens and how much more the Big 6 would command in individual deals.
The Premier League
As a body, this was like a gut punch from nowhere. I mean, fancy someone coming along and wanting to change the whole face of English football!
But, after 23 years, they are susceptible to change too whether it’s welcome or not. Yes, they have been an incredible money-making machine right from the off but the clubs within it have always held all the power and the option, at any time, to go another way if they all – or rather 14 – choose.
In their initial response, the Premier League said that it wants a wide-ranging discussion on the future of the game, adding: “This work should be carried out through the proper channels enabling all clubs and stakeholders the opportunity to contribute.” They also said the proposals could have a ‘damaging effect’ on the game. They obviously would say this because they are clearly the biggest losers if this goes ahead. But another angle might be they’ve had it so good for so long that it might be time for change at the top to freshen things up.
Reform is clearly needed. The Premier League were in pole position but the question I heard, when the EFL bailout talks started, was along the lines of ‘do Birmingham City need help when they got £30m for Jude Bellingham?’ – a question that is easier to ask when the £30m came from Borussia Dortmund – but more often, these talented EFL players, developed in academies up and down the country, go to the Premier League, as do talented managers like Dean Smith, so maybe there has to be more to their reservations than simply money.
The EFL
This is a crisis and it could be about to get catastrophic. We shouldn’t ignore the very real cries for help from lower league clubs with Peterborough United’s owner, Darragh MacAnthony, warning in that ‘not my club but…’ way that some others are approaching a payroll crunch in December that would be followed by filing for administration in January.
Nigel Travis, chairman of Leyton Orient concurred, saying ‘clubs will “disappear within five to six weeks” unless they get financial support. He’s a fan of Project Big Picture, but pointed out that ‘it wasn’t about the pandemic, this is about a crisis in football that goes back many years’
Before Covid, he added, 75% of clubs were losing money. In a ‘we are where we are’ situation, the EFL needs money now not recriminations about how clubs got where they are. That seems to be the most common attitude. Most of those owners mentioned by Henry Winter as being more trustworthy than Rick Parry are right behind their chairman on this matter.
My favourite line was from a club owner whose feeling was that ‘everyone thinks the EFL suckle from the Premier League but it’s actually the other way around.’ It’s probably a bit of both, but the top clubs rely on all the others for players, facilities, friendlies and all the off-field talent so it shouldn’t be dismissed. Factor in too the ‘supermarkets to corner shops’ comparison that Steve Parrish of Crystal Palace offered. If that’s how it is, then a corner shop like Stevenage might wonder how much difference new voting rights in the Premier League might have on their day-to-day existence.
Part 3: The Government And The Fans
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The Government
Front and centre – in the eyes of many including club owners – of all this is the government and their incompetent handling of most things Covid; with the #LetFansIn campaign outlining the dissent to measures that allow pubs and theatres to open but doesn’t allow people in socially-distanced outdoor stadiums at a reduced capacity.
Peter Moore, who left the Liverpool CEO position in August, puts this existential crisis for football clubs on their shoulders. As did MacAnthony, Millwall chief Steve Kavanagh and Brighton’s, Paul Barber, to name a few. It’s not unfair. They have dithered for so long, waiting for the Premier League to bail football out even though they’ve done it for other sectors (including over £1.5bn to the arts – nothing helps fuel a North / South class divide quite like that one). They haven’t asked well-paid actors to bail theatres or cinemas out, or those brothers who purchased ASDA to give handouts to Tesco and Sainsburys, yet football – because of the Premier League’s overall wealth – have to ‘take care of themselves.’
To be fair to them, the Premier League probably think ‘why just us?’ But their lack of action has, of course, created a vacuum that can be exploited by others. As Rick Parry said, they’ve had since May to come up with something of their own. But the government’s passing on of the hot potato might be about to end. On Monday Culture secretary, Oliver Dowden, say that ‘if the Premier League doesn’t get its act together, the Government will have to step in.’
That is the last thing anyone wants or needs. The only thing worse than delayed action is this bunch trying to fix it when they have royally screwed up everything else they’ve touched since this pandemic started. If people can’t see that by now, they don’t want to see it.
Even putting ALL of the other government-led calamities aside, the way they’ve handled the university issue should be warning enough for anyone who loves our national game to want them as far away as possible. As virus cases rise, the poor students are stuck in residential halls getting blamed for the spread whilst begging for food. Yet, they are learning online so could have stayed at home if the lack of cohesive policy mixed with unashamed monetary requirements hadn’t pushed hundreds of thousands of them around the country and led straight to a second wave. Maybe, leave football to people who know the game and stick to sorting track and trace, eh?
The Fans
The government’s manifesto (it did have other things than Get Brexit Done, would you believe?) included a review of football. Nice words but with very little action. Dowden also said “Sustainability, integrity and fair competition are absolutely paramount and anything that may undermine them is deeply troubling. Fans must be front of all our minds, and this shows why our fan led review of football governance will be so critical.”
Whilst the first part is hard to say out loud without laughing, you also wonder when or if this review will take place, if ever. Or is it more like telling people what they want to hear?
It’s true that such an approach would be brilliant, and also that fans didn’t get a lot of consultation about the Big Picture but leaked documents tend to create that issue. The reaction from fans has been, understandably, wide-ranging and often depends on perspective, who you support and what division they are in. A few on the BBC were varied to say the least:
A lot of the proposals make sense, but it would be silly to miss out on a chance to make further change.
Anyone that thinks it’s OK that established successful clubs have the power to veto takeovers of those trying to improve their circumstances does not have the interest of the game at heart.
It’s an unashamed power grab by those clubs with the most money and laughs in the face of democracy.
But the opposing view and it gets louder when a club is as close to the edge as some are. With a choice of Big Picture or nothing, they’ll take the one that means they still have a club.
There is no obvious way forward here and there won’t be until the full ramifications are known and understood; both for what happens if the project goes ahead or if it doesn’t. This might also smoke out alternative proposals or solutions; who knows, that might be exactly what was intended in the first place.
I don’t know the legalities but my biggest question is what happens if the Big 6 – plus any that agree with them – don’t get the 14 votes they require but do decide to leave the Premier League instead? Would they be allowed in the EFL? It’s hard to see why they wouldn’t be welcomed. Miguel Delaney called it the ‘nuclear option’ and it would be a gun to the head but it would also show us where the real power lies.
What this pandemic has done very well, apart from the obvious, is exacerbate the problems that were contained in English football so that the unsustainable practices are laid bare. We could argue for months about where the fault lies, but that it can’t continue like this is an easy one to agree on. So, change has never been more necessary; be it Big Picture or a different picture.
If change saves clubs, is it a price worth paying, even if it does restructure power? With great power comes great responsibility, and what if new power brokers displayed that? What if a way of forcing them to do so was built into any agreement?
Darragh MacAnthony thinks Big Picture won’t happen and is a unfortunate distraction from the looming cliff edge. But without some kind of solution being found very quickly, the issue of reducing the 92 league clubs to 90 (one of the smaller points in the proposals) won’t be an issue at all. Finding ninety viable clubs in the first place will be difficult enough.
And that should be enough to focus all the stakeholders to find a way through this. Even if they have to – heaven forbid – try to work together.
In 1974-5, the production of Jaws was, to put it mildly, a troubled one. From issues with actors, problems with budget, unwanted influence from above (sound familiar) to the obvious difficulties of filming at sea, it’s a miracle that the film was ever made at all. But it was, somehow, and is now widely considered a masterpiece and the perfect summer blockbuster. The end justified the means. Everyone involved made it happen.
Proof that, even if it gets extremely messy along the way, the final big picture can end up looking much better than anyone expected it to. Over to you.
words Darren Young, D3D4 columnist