This week D3D4 columist Darren Young looks at previous World Cup “dark horses” and examines who will be given that distinction in Russia…

Don’t Look A World Cup Dark Horse in The Mouth

Dark Horse

  1. usually little-known contender that makes an unexpectedly good showing.

b : an entrant in a contest that is judged unlikely to succeed

 

Nearly all World Cups have one.

A so-called dark horse that isn’t on that many people’s lips when they are naming potential winners but that comes along to surprise – usually themselves as much as anyone else – by nearly going all the way.

For the purposes of this article I’m going to quantify a dark horse as a country reaching the semi-final. That’s the thing about World Cup dark horses, they reach the last four but hardly ever the final. Well, if you discount The Netherlands – the best team never to win the trophy; so, let’s do that.

Speaking of which, I’m only going back as far as I can remember, and I don’t really have any memory of 1978 and Argentina although I have a fuzzy, seven-year old’s recollection of lots of paper fluttering in the air and Peru’s horizontal red chest band. And I vividly remember Archie Gemmill’s goal for Scotland against the aforementioned Dutch – although that might be because of repeated viewings of Trainspotting.

In fact, although I’m not going back that far in detail, it is conceivable that almost every FIFA World Cup has had what you’d describe as a dark horse. For example, in the first ever World Cup in Uruguay, the United States reached the semi-final (and lost 6-1 to Argentina) but that was mainly because no-one else turned up.

In 1934 it was arguably Austria (lost to hosts and eventual champions, Italy) and in 1938 it was Sweden (thrashed by the Hungarians; one of the power brokers of world football either side of the Second World War).

In 1950, it was probably Sweden again although also maybe Spain although by now, the competition had become a series of leagues (including the final one to decide the winner) rather than knockout matches and these two finished comfortably in the bottom two spaces while Brazil and Uruguay fought for top spot.

In Switzerland four years later, Austria punched above their weight but were hammered 6-1 (the now common dark horse losing score line) in the semi by West Germany and in 1958, in Sweden, the hosts became the exception, by getting to the final before succumbing to Brazil (5-2).

1962 saw the World Cup go to Chile and the hosts again used their home advantage to go deep into the draw, losing a semi-final to Brazil, the eventual champions., while in England in ’66 it was the Soviet Union and a Eusebio-inspired Portugal who reached the last four, losing to Germany and England respectively.

Mexico 1970 is a rare one, where the final four were all big hitters and could have been predicted to be there. And in West Germany in ’74 and Argentina, the whole thing was complicated by more messing about that saw the two finalists coming from two groups of four, so it’s hard to say if there was a dark horse or not, given that half the teams that started off were still contesting a place in the final at that stage.

So, onto the World Cups I can remember. Here’s the who, how and most importantly – if we are to learn about this year’s potential dark horse(s) – why.

 

Spain 1982

Given their impressive showings in ’74 and ’78 I would imagine that Poland wouldn’t consider themselves dark horses, but they were. Negotiating a group of bore draws, they qualified with Italy before topping Belgium and the USSR in a smaller group to earn a rematch with Italy in the semi and unfortunately for them, running into a Paulo Rossi who’d found his shooting boots with a hat-trick against Brazil and scored another two against them. Poland’s not-so-secret weapons were a large and littler forward duo of Grzegorz Lato and Zbigniew “Zibì” Boniek, who scored plenty between them and terrorised defences.

Mexico 1986

Belgium almost went all the way in the heat of ’86 but found Diego Maradona too good in their semi-final and his two goals, to go with his one legal and one illegal goal against England in the previous round, helped his country to their second World Cup success (he didn’t score but he did set up the winner in the final v West Germany). Belgium had scraped through after finishing third in their group (and losing to the hosts) but then beat a Soviet side after extra time and defeated Spain on penalties.

 

Italy 1990

England went into Italia ’90 on the back of a shaky qualifying section and even shakier build up matches, Sir Bobby Robson, when he was just plain Bobby (who had already been told to ‘go in the name of Allah’ by The Sun after a 1-1 draw in Saudi Arabia and followed by a disastrous Euro 1988) had agreed to do just that by signing a contract to manage PSV Eindhoven after Italia ’90 was over. Most people thought that might be quite quickly but after two draws and a narrow win over Egypt, they beat Belgium, Cameroon and outplayed West Germany only to lose on penalties, after Paul Gascoigne’s trickery and tears.

 

USA 1994

America have to go bigger so they had two dark horses, not one, when they hosted their first World Cup. Bulgaria and Sweden reached the semi-finals before losing by a single goal to Italy and Brazil respectively. In their groups, the Swedes had drawn with Brazil while the Eastern Europeans had beat Argentina and then bettered that by besting Germany in the quarter-final. Both nations had goals in them. Sweden had three strikers who scored three or more, while Hristo Stoichkov finished with the golden shoe for his six goals for Bulgaria. The dark horses met in the pointless third place play off and Sweden won it 4-0 (all the goals coming by the fortieth minute)

 

France 1998

Easy this one. Croatia, only recognised by FIFA five years earlier, brought their iconic red and white squared shirts and exciting football to France (as they had to England two years earlier) and nearly went all the way to the final with it. Qualifying from their group with ease, they beat Romania and Germany and only two goals – the only two goals ever – from French full back, Lillian Thuram, beat them after they took the lead in the Paris semi-final. Davor Suker won the Golden Boot with six goals.

 

Japan/South Korea 2002

Two very dark horses threatened to upset the natural order in the first World Cup in Asia as hosts South Korea and Turkey reached the last four.  The Turks benefited by some surprise results that threw the seedings into disarray and saw them play Japan and then Senegal on the way to semi-final and a defeat to Brazil, who’d also beat them in the group. The Koreans won their group, but then had a much harder route past Italy and Spain before falling at the last but one hurdle to Germany. If Turkey’s path was a touch fortunate, that would be an understatement if used to describe the refereeing results that helped South Korea on their unlikely journey. Again, a dark horse derby for third place and the Turks won 3-2 with a goal after 10 seconds straight from the South Korean’s kick off!

 

Germany 2006

Whilst Italy’s win was perhaps unlikely, the dark horse was Portugal who brushed off the disappointment of defeat in the final of their own Euros in ’04 to almost reach one again on the even bigger stage. In the end, France and Zinedene Zidane stopped them, but not before they’d had a 100% group record, beat the Dutch 1-0 in an absolute tear up that saw four red cards, and then beat England, minus Wayne Rooney after his red card for stamping. The utter winkers them.

 

South Africa 2010

It should have been Ghana, but Luis Suarez – not for the last time – used a part of his body illegally, to deny them a semi-final place, and thus giving Uruguay the dark horse tag for this World Cup. The South Americans impressively topped Group A above France, Mexico and the hosts, and saw off South Korea before Ghana, who had qualified behind Germany and then beat the USA before being so cruelly and dishonestly shunted out by Suarez’s handball and therefore, denied Africa’s first ever World Cup semi-final appearance.

 

Brazil 2014

It’s easy to forget because we were all captivated by Brazil’s 7-1 shoeing in the one semi-final, that The Netherlands and Argentina played out the other semi-final. It’s also easy to forget as it was shockingly boring and a goalless draw livened up only by penalties and Louis Van Gaal’s goalie swapping. By the way, we’re including Holland as dark horses here because they were largely unfancied after many of their stars had retired after 2010, and they’ve failed to reach the 2012 Euros, the 2016 Euros and this year’s World Cup too. But in 2014, they came good, hammering holders, Spain 5-1 before beating Australia, Chile, Mexico and Costa Rica on their route to the last four. Worth remembering too, just how close Costa Rica came to being the dark horses themselves, eliminating England, Italy and Greece before being a penalty shoot-out away from what would have been a shock semi-final spot.

 

Russia 2018

So, given what we’ve learnt, a dark horse either needs a potent goalscorer(s) or to be very lucky. As Katy Perry says in her song of the same name, it’s a perfect storm; so, having someone banging goals in whilst the team enjoy some outrageous luck is required for any dark horse to reach the final four. Who are the runners and riders who that it could be?

 

Uruguay – former two-time winners but a dark horse this time around as they are well down the pecking order, even of the South American teams. Hard to see them winning it but they should reach the knockout stage.

 

Portugal – you can never discount a team who are European champions and have Cristiano Ronaldo, and they should qualify for the latter stages but winning the competition, in the way they did the Euros, seems a bit far-fetched.

 

Peru – excellent build up and a proper footballing renaissance for a nation that has had a few World Cups off since 1982 but not enough of one to go all the way this time.

 

Croatia – almost the definition of a dark horse after ’98 but rarely deliver when it really matters despite having the talent. Having peaked early in their life as a footballing nation, you feel that with a bit of luck, they could reach at least the last four again but in a tough group where even the weakest team on paper – Iceland – finished ahead of them in qualifying.

 

Mexico – A team who always flatter to deceive but have a stinker in the knockout stages. A run to the quarter finals wouldn’t surprise anyone, but then neither would a loss when they get there.

 

Belgium – only in the dark horse list because they’ve never won it. With a glittering array of talent to call on, goals from all positions and a favourable draw there is a feeling of now or never for a generation as golden as Kevin De Bruyner’s hair, but they also don’t have that winning mentality of a Germany or Spain and World Cup history is full of teams who didn’t quite reach their potential.

 

England – like Uruguay, they’ve won it before but a long time ago and have to be considered outsiders. They have the goalscorers in Kane and Rashford to take them to the last eight but beyond that will depend on having a bit of luck or avoiding penalties; two things they’ve struggled to do in previous World Cups.

 

Poland – some don’t think they’ll even get out of the group, let alone be dark horses but then that is based on the ‘stop Robert Lewandowski and you stop Poland’ theory and it’s easier said than done. Sixteen goals in qualification, and several more in friendlies make him a favourite for the Golden Boot, but the winner of that rarely gets to the final.

 

Colombia – they have the forward line to do some serious damage but whether it would be enough to get past a Brazil, France or Germany in the latter stages is debatable.  England would fear them in the last sixteen more than anyone else in Group H but the semi-finals? Not for me.

 

So, basically Belgium. They are the only realistic semi-finalists from the above group and the only chance of the engraver having to pop a new name on the trophy.

One of those annoying prediction computers, that the BBC love, said last week that the chance of a new winner of the World Cup this year was 47%. So, someone other than Spain, Germany, England, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay or France. Basically, it was saying that Belgium have a 47% chance of winning it. Which just adds more pressure if you ask me.

And we know what high expectations has done to previous golden generations.