This week D3D4 columnist Darren Young takes a look ahead to the upcoming World Cup in Russia…
What Does The First Eastern European World Cup Promise?
Only one week to go now.
Seems a long time since the last one. And much, much longer since that moment when Sepp Blatter said it was going to be Russia? Crikey, was it really almost eight years ago when the hosting of 2018 and 2022 World Cups was announced to audible gasps and mass controversy? At the time (December 2 2010), with all the shenanigans and voting (or not) revelations, the fact this particular tournament was going to be in vast country (just the eleven(!) time zones) almost went under the radar, as the media spotlight fell more sharply on the one after this one, in Qatar and the complaints from Australia and the United States.
A lot has happened since that day when President Blatter rather sheepishly read out the names; not least at FIFA, after the then-Secretary General allegedly told his FIFA colleagues in the build-up to the announcements that a Russia-Qatar result would be a disaster for the governing body and subsequent and ongoing corruption charges have been afoot pretty much ever since.
But the 2018 host decision, however it was arrived at and putting the English bid team’s disappointment to one side, did make a lot more sense than putting on a massive global competition on a small desert state with forty-degree-plus temperatures in the summer (until it got moved to the Winter) and a land-mass roughly that of Wales.
By comparison, Russia has the world’s largest land area (an eighth of the world’s total inhabited area, no less and borders with fourteen other countries) and Eastern Europe has never hosted the finals before so despite some reservations about its cultural suitability (see below), a World Cup is about due there by now.
There is plenty of roubles there too; crucial if twelve stadiums in eleven cities were to be built or extensively renovated as they have been, as well as base camps and training complexes for the thirty-two competing countries and the hotels and infrastructure that are the responsibility of any host nation.
And there is a massive appetite for football and for this World Cup in the country of 150m people and the largest mineral and energy resources on the planet.
While fears persist of potential issues with hooliganism, racism and homophobia (and similar fears of potential problems that rarely materialise exist prior to almost competition of this nature) so we can only wait and see what takes place off the pitch and keep our fingers crossed. On it, there is a lot to look forward to. Here is my own preview on what you might see in the next five weeks:
GROUP STAGE
Group A (Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay)
On paper, it looked a favourable draw for the hosts (and we know that they’ll never be able to play the holders Brazil until the final, right?) but the first stage will still see the exit of at least one of Liverpool golden booters, past and present, Luis Suarez and Mo Salah (if he makes it all after a shoulder injury) or the host team, and even possibly two of the three. That last match of the group between Russia and Uruguay could have quite a bite, and I’ll predict them both to get through (possibly with a tactfully worked draw) especially if the Egyptian forward doesn’t recover sufficiently to make the same impact he has in the Premier League.
Qualifiers: Uruguay and Russia (just)
Group B (Spain, Portugal, Iran and Morocco)
The last three European champions, Spain and Portugal, should have too much in this section but it’s not guaranteed. You’d imagine Cristiano Ronaldo will want to go out with a bang on surely his last chance of world stage glory but if there is a loser in the opening match in Sochi between the footballing giants of the Iberian Peninsula, they face a struggle to follow the winner into the next round as neither Morocco and Iran barely conceded a goal in qualification and will make life very difficult for an opponent that has to go for it.
Qualifiers: Spain and Portugal
Group C (France, Australia, Peru and Denmark)
A very tough group to call and also, one of only two groups (along with A) that you can play fully on FIFA18 if you don’t have the World Cup update edition or happen to have a PS3 (cheers EA)! Peru will have their influential star player with them after all (suspension for drinking banned tea lifted) and their iconic kit alone will win neutrals over so I fancy it will be down to them and Denmark to fight out for second place with my guess is that the Danes will be just too Great. As doubts remain over whether France’s coach is their mallion faible with so many talented players to call on, the spectre of a Zinedene Zindane on jobseekers allowance will loom large over Didier Deschamps throughout, but they should be more than good enough to make it out of the group unscathed.
Qualifiers: France and Denmark
Group D (Argentina, Iceland, Croatia and Nigeria)
This is a World Cup without, arguably, a ‘Group of Death’ but this one is probably the closest we’ll get. It’s almost certainly the one with the most adventurous kits and in the stands will be some of the competition’s most colourful, noisiest and passionate fans. Nigeria are capable of going far, but can blow hot and cold, Croatia have the potential to do anything but often fall short and it remains to be seen if Iceland can continue what they started at Euro 2016. Lionel Messi will want to crack it in what might be his last World Cup where he will be a major influence and there might be one or two surprises before this one is over.
Qualifiers: Argentina and Croatia
Group E (Brazil, Switzerland, Costa Rica and Serbia)
After the horror show and seven goal bashing by Germany in their own backyard four years ago, Brazil will want to banish those Belo Horizonte ghosts and Neymar’s fitness feels very important to their chances of going all the way this time; his comeback against Croatia suggested all is very much on track. Any of the other three could join them and it may be the country that gets the best result against Brazil will edge the others out. I’m going with Switzerland (who have form for first match shocks against the favourites) as they go up against the 4/1 selecao first in Rostov, and might just catch them at the right time before they hit full speed.
Qualifiers: Brazil and Switzerland
Group F (Germany, Mexico, Sweden and South Korea)
Not a group of death as such but a group of three evenly matched teams fighting for qualification alongside stand out second-favourites and holders, Germany. Sweden showed they can grind out results by disposing of Italy in qualification and Mexico often do well in the group stage while South Korea’s stock keeps growing as their players grow in bigger leagues. Toss of a coin and the results against Germany might be key to finding a runner up.
Qualifiers: Germany and Mexico (by virtue of a drab opening game draw against Germany)
Group G (Belgium, England, Panama and Tunisia)
Gareth Southgate will be hoping that the hard work is already done by the time his young lions meet Belgium on match day 3. The Belgians want to finally realise their potential but have that ‘golden generation’ tag around their necks that England didn’t wear well in the last two decades. England have the advantage of less fear this time around as many of the squad don’t wear the scars of World Cups past and despite the potential for embarrassment, I’d still take these two to be fighting over first and second spot by the time they meet though although neither Panama nor Tunisia will roll over easily.
Qualifiers: Belgium and England
Group H (Poland, Colombia, Japan and Senegal)
If there was a group that didn’t quite have the big name jump out at you in the way the others do, then this is it, but you have to give them all a chance. To be fair, if you don’t count 1966, Poland have a better World Cup pedigree than England and often go deep into the latter stages but there is an erratic nature to the other three and all four teams are capable of getting through and all four are capable of having a nightmare and losing their two opening games. Probably one of the hardest groups to call and the quality of Bayern pair, James Rodriguez and Lewandowski, might tip the balance for the South Americans and Europeans.
Qualifiers: Colombia and Poland (but not necessarily in that order)
KNOCKOUT STAGE
If my predicted outcomes proved correct, and I think this will be a competition devoid of the really big shocks, then apart from me being in the bookies collecting big-time, the Round of 16 would look like this:
Uruguay v Portugal; France v Croatia; Brazil v Mexico; Belgium v Poland
Spain v Russia; Argentina v Denmark; Germany v Switzerland; Colombia v England
Beyond that, it’s hard to look beyond the previous winners for the winner of the next one and I think only Belgium could realistically make a challenge from outside of that group, and even then, their path will take them into one of Germany or Brazil in the last eight and possibly falling a little short of expectations.
England on the other hand would no doubt take a quarter-final defeat (after the disappointments of the last two World Cups and Euro 2016) as a sign of progress and ideal preparation for a real tilt in Qatar when the younger players have more experience (but will they also then have that fear? You can’t have it both ways). But beating a Germany squad – who will leave another 23 players behind who could probably get into England’s XI – is another matter completely at this stage of their development. But you never know…
For the record, taking my tips to a conclusion, here’s where I think we’re headed:
Quarters: Portugal v France; Brazil v Belgium; Spain v Argentina; Germany v England
Semi Finals: France v Brazil; Spain v Germany
Winners: Brazil beating Germany in the final
So, I predict a final between the two favourites, the number one and two FIFA ranked teams and the sides who have won nine (five and four) of the previous twenty World Cups between them. And it definitely won’t be 5-0 after twenty-nine minutes of first half play this time. I’m fairly confident on that one.
But whatever happens and regardless of your allegiance, enjoy this World Cup.
The next one, with a final the week before Christmas and possibly 48 countries in a country that no one else is talking to, might feel a bit different. There is 1,800 miles between two of the host venues in Russia. In Qatar, they are so close, we might see the first ever goal scored in one stadium direct from a wayward clearance in another. Especially if the air-conditioning is on full blast!
And we’ve got six months longer to wait for it too.