In this weeks column Darren Young asks whether possession football is the be all end all that it is made out to be…
Possession is Nine Tenths Of The Bore
Away from my usual ranting about Walsall, Women’s Football or Premier League greed, something a bit more sedate and number-crunchingly-boring this week. It might be a little less exciting but its worthy of mention nonetheless.
You see, on the BBC Sport’s football app, when you click on Match Stats, the top stat – before shots, shots on target and corners, is possession.
Why, I’ve no idea. This week, to pick just one, has proved definitively that the measure of possession of the football is as misleading as the VAR guidelines and the reasons given for Elise Christie’s disqualifications.
The obvious one, that stands out head and shoulders above the rest, is from Monday’s FA Cup shocker when Wigan ended Manchester City’s quadruple hopes. The home side had just 18% of the ball, even against ten men in the second half, and just two shots on target (although one by that striker that’s on fire proved decisive) compared to 29 shots overall from City, none of which breached the Wigan goal.
On a separate note, the pitch invasion was, if understandable, unfortunate given there was apparently spitting and player altercations with fans during it. I loved Wigan Chairman David Sharpe’s post-match interview when he said that it was not nice but that the win was a one-off.
Massive underdogs Wigan beating Manchester City by one goal in the FA Cup? A one off, once in a lifetime occurrence? It’s already happened three times in the last four and a half years.
But back to this possession thingy. What does it tell us about the match other than one team had the majority of the ball? It has very little bearing on the outcome of the match.
I looked at Manchester City’s previous cup game, in the Champions League against FC Basel where they were also away, had roughly the same possession and shot count and won 4-0. So, was the Wigan defeat just one of those days? After all, despite the last three matches between the clubs going Wigan’s way, it was still a seismic shock in football terms, and should it simply be chalked off as being down to the ‘magic of the cup?’
But when looking at the midweek games this week, what happened at Wigan seemed more in keeping with modern football than what happened against Basel.
Champions League
Chelsea v Barcelona. The home side had 27% of ball, yet had more shots, hit the woodwork twice and would have won but for a late individual error.
Seville v Man United. Despite having far less of the ball (43%) of ball and 19 less attempts at goal than the home team, United still came away with the draw that just about tips the balance in their favour.
League Two
Cambridge v Notts County. The opposite of what happened in Seville as the away side had most of the possession but only manged three off-target shots while the home side had loads of shots (19) and won the game.
But the most glaring evidence was in The EFL Championship with virtually every game suggesting that having the ball might not be an advantage at all.
Championship
Bristol City v Fulham. The away side had 60% possession but less shots and drew 1-1.
Derby v Leeds. The away side had far less possession but would have won but for a 93rd minute equaliser from Kasey Palmer.
Ipswich v Cardiff. The away side won despite having 43% possession.
Wolves v Norwich. The leaders and home side had more shots despite less possession and were also denied by a 93rd minute equaliser.
Aston Villa v Preston. The visitors had less possession but far more shots than the home team in draw (1-1)
Barnsley v Burton Albion. The away side had only 40% of the ball yet won after scoring with their only two shots on target.
Middlesbrough v Hull City. The home side won comfortably (3-1) despite having only 33% possession.
Millwall v Sheffield Wednesday. Similairy, the home side won despite having just 37% of the ball.
Bolton v Sunderland. The home side had 38% possession and half the number of shots of the visitors but still won 1-0.
I seem to remember a manager – I think it was Brenden Rogers – saying that the team who had most possession would , more often than not, win the game. I’m sure that’s almost certainly true at Celtic but in The Championship, it’s almost the opposite.
It seems in that division, at least this week, that having the ball for long periods was a disadvantage. And with Chelsea and Wigan reinforcing that, what is it about ‘on the ball’ stats that prove so misleading?
The obvious one is that all the passes in the world (Barca made 800 to Chelseas’s 200 for example) mean little unless they hurt the opposition. For all those touches, Barcelona’s most fruitful pass came from an opposition player.
It also points to what you do when you do have the ball. As Middlesbrough, Burton and Millwall showed, as long as you stick it in the net at nearly every opportunity, you don’t need the ball that much.
But stats like possession have always had the ability to mask reality. For example, Arsenal are known as The Invincibles by going a season unbeaten, but if a team drew every match of a Premier League season, they would also be invincible – but likely get relegated with 38 points.
And what if a team passes the ball between full back and right midfielder for the first 15 minutes then the full back hits a trickling 80-yard shot into the keeper’s arms? An opposition fan looking at the match stats on BBC would see his team have had 1% possession, no passes, no shots and the other team have had 100% of their shots on target. They’d be pulling their hair out yet if the keeper boots the ball forward he’ll have created more danger than all that went before it. So the numbers tell only part of the story.
The numbers do however, point to a growing trend in teams being more effective without the ball. Chelsea did this well on Tuesday night, stifling Messi and Co without necessarily having the ball at their feet but still giving their opponents nowhere to go when they had it.
I can’t say this is what happened in all the Championship games because I haven’t seen them, but it seems that teams are learning to play without the football much better than ever before, and therefore they are happier out of possession and comfortable letting their opponents have the ball as long as it’s in the right areas of the pitch.
I’ve seen this in the EFL, when teams allow the centre backs to have it, safe in the knowledge they will either tap it between them or, if they do try to be more adventurous, boot it out of play or give away possession.
So. it’s less one offs and more the way football is going. Away wins are more commonplace now than ever in the English leagues and this is part of the reason; not having the ball isn’t a problem any longer. In fact, it could be the best thing for your team.
From now on, Go get a goal scorer (easier said, I know) and let the opposition defenders have the ball for as long as they like.
How long before we hear the chant? “82 per cent possession, and you f*****d it up”