A baker’s dozen: The League One relegation battle

Never before has a relegation battle been as interesting or as inclusive as the one taking place in League One at the moment.

There are only nine points separating the side in 24th and the side in 12th and even more remarkable is the fact that the side currently in the final relegation place is just one win away from potentially being a top half team.

There are still a number of twists and turns to go in this intriguing dog-fight so, inspired by Shrewsbury Town fan Ant Thomas, D3D4 asked a fan from each of the clubs involved five questions to get their perspective on how they see the relegation battle panning out this season.

Here is what they had to say:

12.Plymouth Argyle

Points: 45

Goal difference: -12

Top scorer: Freddie Ladapo (15)

Most chances created: Freddie Ladapo (29)

Fan asked: Chris Willett (@daffy07)

1) What are the positives about your team at the moment?

Positives around Argyle currently. The upturn in form since Christmas, with three defeats since the turn of the year. Home form particularly has been impressive, with seven games unbeaten now heading into a crucial game with Bristol Rovers on Saturday.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

Key player for us is still probably Graham Carey, despite having a quiet goalscoring season by his standards (five currently), he still pops up with crucial assists time and again and is capable of moments of magic (if you haven’t seen his bit of skill against Portsmouth, it is definitely worth a look!). Ruben Lameiras is pushing him close, but having to choose one I would say Carey.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

A worry most of the season has been a reluctance to change things up depending on opposition and/or conditions however this has been changing in recent weeks. Most worrying for me at this stage is our lack of goals away from home. We’ve scored one in five away from the comforts of Home Park since a 3-2 win at Southend in January.

4) Do you think you will survive?

Do I think we will survive – at this moment in time yes, but ask me again in another week!

5) Who do you think will go down?

I am starting to think Bradford and Rochdale will probably go, likely joined by Wimbledon despite their resurgence recently. There is one team that are on a bit of a slippery slope and I think they could end up getting sucked in and that’s Wycombe. No victory since turning us over in January, their poor run could well have come at the worst possible time.

13.Bristol Rovers

Points: 44

Goal difference: 0

Top scorer: Jonson Clarke-Harris (6)

Most chances created: Liam Sercombe (21)

Fan asked: Max Alderson (@Gas_cast)

1) What are the positives of your team at the moment?

We are 4th in the form table, behind Luton, Barnsley, and Sunderland. If you look at the last 15 games, we have more or less been in promotion form. We now have a striker with a physical presence, which has lifted the whole team, and everyone is playing better. If we carry on as we are, we will stay up with breathing space.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

Jonson Clarke-Harris. Since coming in he’s been a revelation. The kind of player who can turn a bore draw into 1-0 win with a goal out of nothing (and has done several times). Whilst also offering enough hold-up play and energy to drive the rest of the team forward. We have struggled not because of our defence, but lack of goals, and with JCH we now have that.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

The average league position of teams we are yet to play is 8th, higher than any side in the bottom half, so broadly speaking we have the toughest run-in. However with so many teams down there, I feel like we only need a couple of wins and draws to be safe. I only worry about the sheer unpredictability of the other teams, and who will start to pick up form at the wrong moment for us – the league table reflects this.

4) Do you think you will survive?

Yes, I think we will. We’ve been a “nearly” team all season, and since January it’s finally clicked and the results have followed. That said, everyone is fighting for something and there are bound to be a few twists in store over Easter.

5) Who do you think will go down?

Wycombe, Rochdale, Walsall, Bradford. Based on the form table and lack of cutting edge. I think AFC Wimbledon will pull off the great escape, they’re looking a much better side under Downes, and full of confidence.

14.Wycombe Wanderers

Points: 44

Goal difference: -11

Top scorer: Joe Jacobson (6)

Most chances created: Adebayo Akinfenwa (26)
Fan asked: Phil Slatter (@phil_slatter)

1) What are the positives of your team at the moment?

Despite our poor run, we’ve played well in spells and in some games recently (even the first half against Accrington). We’ve been losing due to some fine margins. Had just one or two things gone very slightly differently in a couple of games we’d probably be safe by now. Teams aren’t destroying us but we just need to cut out silly errors – we can control.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

Dominic Gape. He holds the midfield together and can makes things happen. The second half against Accrington was about as bad as we’ve been all season and his absence through injury was a key part to our loss of shape.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

The fact that we have made such stupid, basic errors and haven’t been able to see a game out recently. We gave away a late soft equaliser against Sunderland, a stupid penalty at 1-0 up v Accrington (and then another one at 1-1) and then a soft goal AND a penalty late on against Shrewsbury. We used to be good at seeing a game out and scoring late goals, now we can’t and we concede late. Our run-in might look easy on paper but of the teams we have to play, we’ve only beaten Rochdale in the return fixtures. We have Porstmouth and Charlton to come to Adams Park but Coventry are the only top half side to have won there thus far this season. However, it’s the recent results against Bradford, Gillingham, Accrington and Shrewsbury that have pulled us into the mire.

4) Do you think you will survive?

Yes. There are a lot of teams involved and I think we will probably need 3 wins which we’re capable of. Ainsworth has been in this situation before and knows how to keep the team focused and we have enough quality to do it.

5) Who do you think will go down?

15.Accrington Stanley

Points: 44

Goal difference: -11

Top scorer: Billy Kee (11)

Most chances created: Sean McConville (43)

Fan asked: Josh (@RawMilkZine)

1) What are the positives of your team at the moment?

Positives for us at the moment are that we’ve not been relegated already and have a chance to stay in the league. With four wins since October you’d have to say that it’s nice to be able to stay in League One. We have 10 games left, we need to make them count.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

Paul Smyth has come in on loan and looks to be a real threat up front with Kee. Two goals and an ever present moving forward he honestly looks like the man to propel us in the last games of the season.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

I worry about our form. We have had the odd win but haven’t been able to to turn that into a run since the beginning of the season. We have little experience at this level and haven’t been able to grind out results whatsoever in the campaign. That needs to change.

4) Do you think you will survive?

I think we might just do it. Some good performances recently have buoyed the fan base, we need to turn that into points but I’m confident we’ll have enough.

5) Who do you think will go down?

Putting me on the spot there. I’ll take anyone but us, but, I’ll have Bradford, Rochdale, Oxford and Walsall

16.Gillingham

Points: 44

Goal difference: -12

Top scorer: Tom Eaves (18)

Most chances created: Luke O’Neill (20)

Fan asked: Matt Boosey (@GillsInTheBlood)

1) What are the positives of your team at the moment?

I think two of the deadline day arrivals – Graham Burke & Leonardo da Silva Lopes – have had a really positive impact coming down from a division above, and since Gabriel Zakuani was ruled out for the rest of the season it has actually helped us in a weird way because everybody else has taken responsibility & stepped up. Since he’s been missing we’ve won three of seven (43%) keeping three clean sheets & losing only twice. In that period we’ve taken six points from nine at home and five from 12 on the road, form that would see us safe if it continues between now and May 4th.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

It’s probably obvious and predictable, but it has to be Tom Eaves. He has 19 to his name this season, and if we keep creating him chances I’m sure we’ll be fine. After an eight game scoreless run from December through January he’s now back to his best with four in his last nine. Crucial.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

Our frustrating inability to beat teams that are around us in the table has been an issue for a while, and we still have to face Wimbledon, Rochdale, Shrewsbury, Plymouth and Bradford, all of whom are in this mad relegation battle involving half the division. However, recent wins over Scunthorpe and Oxford give me more belief, and having to face all them sides means it is in our own hands if we can show the relative consistency of the last half dozen or so games.

4) Do you think you will survive?

In a word, yes. I did a predictor around deadline day or just after and had us to finish on 56 points so I’ll have to stick to my guns. As I’ve already said, two of the loan arrivals have had a real impact – plus we have Ricky Holmes (crosses fingers) to come in at some point too – we’ve tightened up defensively, and we have Tom Eaves who for me will be a decisive factor with his goals.

5) Who do you think will go down?

Honestly I have no real idea at this point. Wimbledon were gone weeks ago but now have momentum, Bradford have a top ten squad on paper but has Gary Bowyer arrived too late? Southend are in free fall so have to be in danger, Shrewsbury just haven’t recovered from last years Wembley heartache. I could go on, but would end up talking about half the division so I’ll take the easy way out and offer no real prediction haha.

17.Scunthorpe United

Points: 44

Goal difference: -18

Top scorer: Lee Novak (10)

Most chances created: Lee Novak (14)

Fan asked: Matt Blanchard (@IronBru_net)

1) What are the positives of your team at the moment?

It’s been really poor but the second half performance against Southend last Tuesday gave us some encouragement. We were relentless, could arguably have scored two or three more and we played some really good stuff at times in testing conditions. When you see us play so positively, it makes the current predicament all the more frustrating as we are capable of hurting teams, but we seem more concerned about stopping the opposition rather than concentrating on our own game.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

Tony McMahon. He turned the game in our favour against Southend with his aggressive approach and also ended up scoring and assisting two goals. He should also take some credit for the improvement in Rory McArdle and Cameron Burgess. The duo looked like a lost cause before Christmas and whilst they are still far from perfect, they have improved massively since his arrival. As we don’t create an awful lot from open play, particularly away from home, his assists from corners and free kicks will probably be invaluable.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

The next three games are crucial as we face Rochdale, Wimbledon and Shrewsbury. Two of those are away from home and quite frankly our away form is abysmal. If we drop into the bottom four I think we are in big trouble, so we need to start taking points from the teams around us starting with a win at Rochdale! I do worry whether some of them have the fight in them to turn it around, but every time it begins to look really desperate we seem to manage to just do enough to keep our heads above the water. It’s a massive two weeks ahead.

4) Do you think you will survive?

We should really have enough to beat the drop, but defeats to Oxford, Gillingham and Bristol in recent weeks certainly haven’t helped our cause and it is becoming a little nervy. It’s certainly been a frustrating season, which was probably to be expected following some less than ideal transfer business in the summer. We’ve also lost some key players along the way in Josh Morris, Matty Lund, Jordan Clarke and Ryan Colclough to long term injuries, but irrespective of this we really did think we would kick on after a decent January window and finish in mid table.

5) Who do you think will go down?

It looked like Wimbledon were nailed on a few weeks ago but I think they might get out of it now. Bradford and Rochdale will probably go and Wycombe need to turn around their form quickly if they are to beat the drop. I’ll go for Bradford, Rochdale, Wycombe and Walsall!

18.Shrewsbury Town

Points: 43

Goal difference: -8

Top scorer: Fejiri Okenhabirhie & Ollie Norburn (8)

Most chances created: Shaun Whalley (25)

Fan asked: Ollie Warner (@Salopcast)

1) What are the positives of your team at the moment?

We have the potential to score goals with good attacking players such as Tyrese Campbell, Fey Okenabirhie and Shaun Whalley. On our day we can turn it on, however we are frustratingly inconsistent.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

Greg Docherty. A dynamic attacking midfielder on loan from Rangers. He is a good dribbler of the ball, can create assists and score goals. His introduction against Wycombe changed the game. The fans are rather baffled by his absence from the starting eleven.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

4) Do you think you will survive?

At the moment yes, I am 60% in favour of us surviving but if we hadn’t beaten Wycombe, I would have been suggesting otherwise.

5) Who do you think will go down?

Bradford, Rochdale, Wimbledon & Southend

19.Oxford United

Points: 45

Goal difference: -10

Top scorer: James Henry (10)

Most chances created: James Henry (27)

Fan asked: Josh Court (@JoshCourt11)

1) What are the positives of your team at the moment?

We seem to be playing good football and creating some decent opportunities, we’re lacking the cutting edge up front to put those opportunities away which has been our problem all season. As long as we keep creating those chances we should do enough to win the games to keep us up.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

Gavin Whyte as he has so much pace and the ability to score goals and create chances. He has also completed the most take-ons of any player in League One, I just hope he doesn’t pick up any injuries while on international duty.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

I don’t really have any worries about the team, it’s a good enough squad if Robinson picks the right players though I am just hoping our lack of a goal scorer won’t come back to bite us as we hit crunch time. I’m worried about some of the games coming up, couple bogey teams in there that we always seem to struggle to beat plus games against teams in and around us.

4) Do you think you will survive?

Yes, enough said.

5) Who do you think will go down?

Bradford, Wimbledon, Rochdale and Gillingham.

20.Southend United

Points: 42

Goal difference: -8

Top scorer: Simon Cox (14)

Most chances created: Simon Cox (22)
Fan asked: Liam (@AllAtSeaFanzine)

1) What are the positives of your team at the moment?

We’re still outside the relegation zone and survival is still in our hands.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

Mark Oxley – last years player of the season has just returned from injury and has the ability to change results. We need 8 clean sheets in the remaining games and Oxley will be key to that.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

Injured players have caused Powell consistent problems with team selections, formations and tactics. As they return with only a few games left and varying levels of match fitness, that inconsistency is likely to continue.

4) Do you think you will survive?

Genuinely don’t know at this point, of all the teams in the fight we have the worst form but hopefully we have enough time to pick up the points we need and breathe an enormous sigh of relief in May. Sunderland at home on the final day could be a huge game.

5) Who do you think will go down?

Bradford look to be in serious trouble and I’ve barely heard anything positive from Walsall all season. It’s likely to come down to goal difference I think which puts Wimbledon, Rochdale and Scunthorpe all on the back foot too. Bristol Rovers are on 0 which SHOULD see them safe but everyone else in the bottom half is a candidate.

21.Walsall

Points: 42

Goal difference: -18

Top scorer: Andy Cook (10)

Most chances created: Luke Leahy (29)

Fan asked: Darren Young (@DarrenYoungBook)

1) What are the positives of your team at the moment?

March was always going to be a very tough month with us playing four of the top six, so the fact that we’ve not been hammered by Portsmouth and Sunderland – as was expected a few weeks ago – gives me a bit of hope for the next two matches this month. A few of the goals were disappointing ones to concede recently but we’ve been competitive and we need that in the remaining matches. Losing the fighting spirit is the last thing anyone needs now.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

He’s hardly played in five games having been sent off in the first few minutes of one match, serving a three game ban and then on the bench at Sunderland, but I’d still say that Andy Cook is going to be key as he’s shown already he can get goals even when we aren’t playing well. Some of our games we’ve got left after March are against teams in the bottom half and we need him back and scoring so we can hopefully nick two or three wins.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

Defensively we’ve been a little suspect all season against long balls and set pieces and that’s a concern but to be fair, they have tightened up a bit and although things went a little awry against Portsmouth, I’m hoping that was a little blip and we can get a few more clean sheets. The good news is that all teams in trouble at this stage have similar worries and it’ll get so tense that they’ll all make mistakes at some stage so you just hope that your team get punished less for them than the other teams around you. What a positive way to end the season..hoping to make less mistakes than others!

4) Do you think you will survive?

Falling into the bottom four for the first time this season was obviously a massive blow on Saturday especially as a few rivals got late goals, but that’s football. The lower half of the league is incredibly tight with anyone up to twelfth still not safe and even those at the bottom have a chance of getting out of it. I’m going to stick my neck out and say that we’ll get an unexpected win in the next two and then do enough in April to just about hang on although we might need to get something at Shrewsbury on the last day, which is the nightmare scenario.

5) Who do you think will go down?

With it genuinely being four from twelve, it’s hard to name names as they’ll be all sorts of twists before May. Bradford will do well to get out of it, but the rest of us are all only a couple of wins from jumping right up the league. But it’s so hard to predict as you can be fourteenth one minute and then back in the drop zone the week after so you can never rest or feel confident until you are mathematically safe. But at the risk of sounding like a politician, I’ll predict Bradford, Rochdale, Southend and one from the five teams currently on 44 points but who will lose momentum just at the wrong moment.

22.AFC Wimbledon

Points: 39

Goal difference: -21

Top scorer: Joe Piggott (10)

Most chances created: Joe Piggott & James Hanson (19)

Fan asked: Sam Long (@SamuelPLong)

1) What are the positives of your team at the moment?

The main positive is that everyone finally seems to be pulling in the same direction for the first time this season. A couple of weeks ago we appeared to be certainties for the drop, but there is a real feeling around the club that the tide is beginning to turn. Wimbledon have always relished being the underdogs – and we’ve found a bit of bite at just the right time.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

Aaron Ramsdale. Four clean sheets in four games is not a fluke. The 20-year-old has been superb since he arrived from Bournemouth and has kept us in games at crucial moments. Our defence has leaked goals all season but with such a composed presence between the sticks we no longer look like giving soft goals away. Regardless of our fate, Ramsdale will go on to enjoy a career at the top level.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

Consistency. We have found some rhythm in recent weeks but are only a couple of poor results away from being cut adrift again. As the lowest scorers in the division, goals remain a major problem but Joe Pigott has found form and the likes of Dylan Connolly and Michael Folivi mean we finally have pace in attack too. Our trip to Luton being moved to a Tuesday night is a big worry. Everyone else will have already played on Easter Monday and – if our rivals have secured positive results – the pressure will be on.

4) Do you think you will survive?

Several teams around us are going backwards and have been dragged back into the mire after believing they were already safe. Such slides are difficult to stop during the run in. Meanwhile, we’ve grabbed a bit of momentum and – with plenty of relegation rivals left to play – it suddenly looks doable. There is only going to be a couple of points in it and I believe that we’re going to survive by the skin of our teeth. You’ve got to, haven’t you?

5) Who do you think will go down?

Bradford, Rochdale, Oxford, Southend.

23.Rochdale

Points: 38

Goal difference: -31

Top scorer: Ian Henderson (16)

Most chances created: Ian Henderson (30)

Fan asked: Jimmy Moorhouse (@JimmyMoorhouse)

1) What are the positives of your team at the moment?

Positives… Not many to be honest. We’ve got the worst defence in England, no real goal threat, and no permanent manager. If we’d kept Keith Hill we would have gone down, but he would have been the best man to get us back up. We’ve given ourselves a chance of staying up, and our fixtures our slightly kinder than those around us, but personally, I’m not hopeful.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

Ian Henderson. He’s consistently been our best player every year since promotion from league two, and he seems as if he’s getting better with age. Without his goals this season, we’d probably already be relegated. Our best chances of staying up depend on whether he can perform and get the goals we desperately need.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

My main worry is the defence. We’ve conceded 75 goals this season, and we comfortably have the worst goal difference in the league, which could be a massive factor when it comes down to the final few games. We steadied the ship slightly with the signing of Ethan Ebabnks-Landell on loan from Wolves, but his injury means we’re stuck with the likes of Jim McNulty and Ryan Delaney at the back, both of whom in my opinion, are far from good enough for league one football. A clean sheet against Oxford in Brian Barry-Murphy’s second game in change indicates progress, but I think when we play the better teams, they will have no real trouble scoring goals against us.

4) Do you think you will survive?

We performed a miracle last year in staying up and we will need another one this year if we want any chance of playing league one football next year. The next two games against Scunthorpe and Gillingham are massive in dictating that. Two wins and maybe we will be ok, anything less and we are probably doomed.

5) Who do you think will go down?

It’s so tight at the moment, it could be anyone. I think us, and Bradford are the most likely candidates at the moment. Wimbledon looked likely but they’re on a strong run of form so might just escape. My other two guesses would probably be Southend and Walsall, as they’re both in awful form at the moment, but it’s so tight that it is basically impossible to predict.

24.Bradford City

Points: 36

Goal difference: -21

Top scorer: Eoin Doyle (10)

Most chances created: Jack Payne (31)

Fan asked: Tom Love (@TomLove_18)

1) What are the positives of your team at the moment?

There’s more of a feel good factor since Gary Bowyer has come in. He speaks well and seems to cope well with clubs that are in a bit of a crisis. We look more organised defensively too but it’s possibly come too late as what we need now is wins.

2) Name the player you see as being key to your chances of survival and why?

Paul Caddis. He’s done well since he’s come in and although he isn’t likely to be involved in many goals as a right back, his leadership skills and previous experience of narrowly avoiding relegation with Birmingham a few years back will be of major significance if we do manage to survive.

3) What worries you about the team and the remaining games?

There is too much chopping and changing. With games running out we need to settle on a solid first XI in order to go on a good run from now till the end of the season. It’s a mishmash of differing recruits and it’s been to our detriment thus far. With the league how it currently is it seems everyone is still playing for something and that means there will be no easy games.

4) Do you think you will survive?

With us being 6 points adrift and games running out it looks extremely unlikely. We would have to win at least 5 of the remaining 8 games and I just can’t see it I’m afraid. If we do go down then I hope we manage to keep Gary Bowyer as he did an excellent job in difficult circumstances at Blackpool in league Two.

5) Who do you think will go down?

Bradford City, AFC Wimbledon, Rochdale and Southend.