The D3D4 Betting Maverick, @tomlove_18 is back again with his betting tips ahead of the weekend action in League One & Two….
Walsall vs Blackpool – Both Teams To Score at 5/7
I’m not going to go into great detail on this pick as it’s a stats heavy selection.
Walsall continued their own BTTS record last week drawing 1-1 at home to Shrewsbury, making it 10/12 games where they’ve both scored and conceded. The Saddlers have seen BTTS land in all of their home games this season so the stats are firmly on our side with this selection. In addition, visitors Blackpool have seen BTTS land in 5/6 of their league away games, meaning 11/12 collective home/away games have seen BTTS cop. With those figures, albeit a relatively small sample size, I wouldn’t have been surprised to see odds of 1/2 for this one so the 5/7 on offer is certainly value.
Bradford City -0.25 Asian handicap vs Bury at 1/1
I’m usually loathed to back the team I support, purely from a superstitious viewpoint, but it’s hard to look past the Bantams in current form. Sitting comfortably in third position with a 5 point cushion to fourth place, Stuart McCall’s men keep finding a way to win. His side looks to have great balance and a strong spine. Midfield trio Romain Vincelot, Jake Reeves and Nicky Law have rightfully earned rave reviews in the last few weeks, centre halves Nat Knight-Percival and Matt Killgallon have both penned new deals at Valley Parade after forming an impressive partnership. Up front Charlie Wyke is a player that can hold the ball up bring others into play as well as being in the right place when the ball gets into the final third. City will be without assist king Tony McMahon though, which is a blow. His quality from set pieces and character has been integral to the side this season however Adam Chicksen, Alex Gillead and Nicky Law all are strong crossers of the ball in reserve.
Bury have generally struggled this season with only two wins to their name so far. Jermaine Beckford is the obvious threat at the top of the pitch for the shakers but there is a dearth of players that you feel can really impact a game. Many were expecting a strong season from the Lancashire club after their eye catching recruitment drive in the summer but we’ve seen this happen numerous times at Gigg Lane and it never materialises unfortunately.
Bradford have swept aside much better teams than Bury away from home this season in the likes of Peterborough and MK Dons and are still unbeaten on the road with a W4, D2 record. The Asian handicap line has been set at +\- 0.25 and I’m happy to take the Bantams off a -0.25 start at even money. This selection splits our stakes with half going on Bradford City draw no bet and the other half going on the straight win.
Lincoln to beat Cambridge at 20/21
Danny Cowley has impressed with his first foray into the football league, his Lincoln side are currently sitting on 19 points and 10th in the league 2 standings. It could be argued that the Imps would be higher in the table if they could be a bit more clinical, Ben Mayhew (@experimental361) illustrated on his excellent scatter graphs that they have a strong defence but are energetically wasteful in front of goal. It good to see they’re creating the chances and it’s only a matter of time until strikers such as Matt Green and Ollie Palmer start scoring at a more consistent rate.
Cambridge have lost four of their last five in all competitions after a decent spell of results, the only win in that five game flurry was against lowly Forest Green. I’d expect the U’s to finish mid table this term and that wouldn’t be all that bad considering the summer departure of key player Luke Berry. Shaun Derry’s troops are notoriously stubborn in their set up with a real focus on clean sheets rather than goals but that’s easier against the poor teams in the division, strong attacking units usually have enough to unlock the Cambridge door.
With a decent sized crowd behind them I’d expect the Imps to get the job done here, it will be one the Cowley brothers will have pinpointed as a should win if they’re to maintain a play off push. Lincoln are the bet at 20/21.
Wycombe vs Exeter – BTTS and Over 2.5 goals at 11/10
Both these sides have entertained this season scoring plenty and playing different types of attacking football. Hosts Wycombe got a good 3-1 win at Cambridge last week courtesy of two wonder strikes from QPR loanee Eberechi Eze, as well as Eze the Chairboys have a good mix of attacking threats with the experience and physicality of Craig Mackail-Smith, Bayo Akinfenwa and Nathan Tyson. Gaffer Gareth Ainsworth has adopted a more goal-heavy approach this season whereas in seasons gone by they’ve been more used to 1-0 wins. ‘Wild Thing’ has talked effusively about his delight that his side are top scorers in the entire football league so far this term.
Exeter arrive at Adams’ Park back on the winning trail after a slight hiccup in games against Notts County and Coventry. Paul Tisdale has a wealth of attacking options despite the likes of Ollie Watkins and David Wheeler leaving to the championship in the summer. The well spoken Tisdale has his side playing in the same manner as last season, with flair and quality in midfield into the final third. It’s also true that the Grecians have an expected goals tally of just over 1.8 a match, strong figures only bettered by Newport.
This should be a fun game and I’m expecting the goals to flow in Buckinghamshire. Both teams to score is a bit skinny to put up at 8/13 so I’m going to boost that to an odds against quote of 11/10 by throwing over 2.5 goals into the mix.