D3D4 Correspondent and betting Maverick, Tom Love, has sourced the best odds for you again ahead of the League One and Two action…
Walsall vs Shrewsbury – Shrewsbury ‘draw no bet’ at 1/1
Shrewsbury just keep on motoring. Another win at home to a resolute Scunthorpe side made it a record of W9 D2 L0 for the Shropshire club, displaying phenomenally strong levels of organisation, mentality and consistency. Players in reserve can be trusted to be called upon as well, another positive for Gaffer Paul Hurst. Salop have won both their games in the much maligned Checkatrade Trophy, players such as Lennel John-Lewis, Athur Gnahoua, Omar Beckles and Carlton Morris are all putting pressure on the starting eleven. Healthy competition will only drive this team on.
The table toppers make the short journey to the Bescot Stadium to take on an inconsistent Walsall side, Jon Whitney’s men are still fragile at the back and if Shrewsbury forward players are on it then they could have a field day. In fact, Walsall have concede in every game in all competitions this season. I can’t have any faith in backing the saddlers as favourites in this one given that statistic. Going forward they’re decent but it will be a much tougher task scoring past the Shrews defence even with inspired goalkeeper Dean Henderson away with the Young Lions.
Last week we took Shrewsbury playing off a scratch start on the Asian handicap (AH) line and were successful in doing so, the markets once again have them playing off a 0 start and I’m more than happy to get involved at a hugely attractive even money quote. Backing Salop on the +0 AH means if they win we have ourselves an even money winner but if the games ends as a draw we have a bit of insurance on our side as stakes are returned. It’s effectively the same as ‘draw no bet’.
Doncaster vs Southend – Southend +0.5 asian handicap at 11/14
Much like last season, Southend have started the season in a meagre manner. In fairness to Phil Brown he has had injuries and the Nile Ranger situation to deal with which can’t help. The Shrimpers have picked up of late though with three league wins in a row and are starting to look like the play off contenders many imagined them to be in pre-season. Brown has talked about the confidence that is flowing through the squad, the same can’t quite be said about Doncaster though.
Donny have lacked consistency this term and against Bradford at the weekend they looked bereft of ideas, blunt going forward and struggled with defending set pieces. They’re not really I team I want to be with at the minute as a punter, and at 6/5 I am more than happy to lay the hosts against a rejuvenated Southend side. We can back the Shrimpers to avoid defeat at a strange price of 11/14 and that makes appeal.
Notts County vs Forest Green Rovers – Notts County -1 asian handicap at 13/15
Mansfield halted the excellent winning run Notts County were on last week but I’m expecting the magpies to bounce back against a beleaguered Forest Green side. County go into the game with a fully fit squad and Kevin Nolan will be eager for a convincing win after the defeat to the Stags and what better opponents to face than a FGR side that have already lost on eight occasions this seasons.
We’ve backed against the Gloucestershire club a lot this season and been paid out for doing so. I’m not going to harp on about there deficiencies too much but expected goals data certainly backs up their shoddy results. Not only do they concede a high volume of goals, they have seen goals seriously dry up and I can’t see that improving at the weekend.
County are a fair 1/2 to win this one but that’s a bit too short to put up as a selection therefore we will back them on the -1 asian handicap line at close to even money. This means should the Magpies win by two goals or more we will be paid out in full, but if they win by exactly one goal then stakes are returned.
Newport County vs Yeovil – Newport to win at 10/11
Despite their recent inconsistency in terms of results, Newport have continued to impress under Michael Flynn. The Exiles are dominating the shot count in a lot of their games they just need to rediscover their attacking potency in front of goal, the expected goals (xG) data has them averaging over 2 goals a game. It’s also true that the Welsh club haven’t lost at home for over 200 days, Flynn has made their base a difficult place for opposition to go and get results.
Yeovil manager Darren Way has enquired about the availability of the experienced Harry Redknapp to help give pointers and advice to the young manager but I’m not sure that will dramatically see an upturn in results for the glovers. They lost at home to perennial away day strugglers Colchester last week and currently sit 17th in the League Two standings. The Somerset club are at the other end of the spectrum compared to Newport in terms of the xG data and the clear differential predicts that this will be a game Newport will dominate. At 10/11 I’d expect the home side to get the job done.