D3D4 Correspondent and Betting Maverick, @tomlove_18 gives you his betting tips ahead of the weekend games in League One & Two…
Peterborough vs Oxford – BTTS and Over 2.5 goals at 10/11
Two teams meet on Saturday that we have followed for goals this season with both bets concerning these two last week landing successfully, and I’m expecting another exciting encounter at London Road. I was going to back Posh to win this one against an Oxford side out of form, that was until I found out about the damaging news that Junior Morais will be out for five months with a muscle rupture in his thigh, saddening news for Grant McCann especially given the blistering form of the ex St Albans striker.
McCann still has a strong attacking force to rely on though, Ricky Miller, Leo Da Silva Lopes, Jermaine Anderson and youngster Idris Kanu will all by vying for a place in the team as a replacement for Morais. Posh are a different story at the back, however. Conceding three against both Bradford City and Oldham in the weeks gone by make cause for concern, especially that game at Boundary Park on Tuesday last. McCann likes to implement a forward thinking style and a ‘we’ll score more than you’ attitude to games by getting the most out of the quality attacking players at his disposal.
Oxford, as mentioned, are a side that have gone off the boil in the last few weeks, losing their last three games including two that were beatable against Walsall and Bury. Pep Clotet’s men did manage to score in two of those defeats though and have only failed to notch in two games this season and I fancy them to get at least a goal against a gettable Peterborough defensive line.
Those who like a chunkier price might want to look at Peterborough to win and both teams to score at 13/5 but for the first time without Morais I’m just willing to back a game including over 2.5 goals and BTTS at almost even money.
Shrewsbury +0 Asian handicap vs Scunthorpe at 7/8
Shrewsbury continue to defy the odds by winning at Doncaster midweek courtesy of a late Arthur Gnahoua strike which kept the Shrews top of the league with a healthy four point cushion. Bookmakers continue to price the table toppers at attractive prices, presumably because they aren’t a ‘big name’ and believe they cannot continue their superb run of form but when a team has as much spirit and confidence you can’t back against them. Paul Hurst deserves immense credit for instilling a belief and a winning mentality in Shropshire, setting his side up with good balance has been the recipe for success this season.
Promotion contenders Scunthorpe make the trip down to Greenhouse Meadow with a good record this season winning 5, drawing 4 and 1 loss so far this term. Graham Alexander has set his side up to keep the goals out and has been very successful in keeping 8 clean sheets. Praise has to go to the recruitment team at the Iron bringing in arguably the best centre half in league in Rory McCardle from Bradford City, a colossus at the back. Their proficiency at the back has led to a lack of goals at the other end of the pitch though mainly scoring just a single goal, this could well be a tight game. Scunthorpe are a team I like to do well this season but I have to be with a team that is riding a crest of a wave at the minute, and Shrewsbury are proving to be a majorly difficult team to beat.
Bookies have both teams going off a scratch 0 start on the Asian handicap and given that I’ll take Salop on that line, this is effectively the same market as ‘draw no bet’ but a slightly better price. If the game ends all square then our stakes are returned, if Shrewsbury get the victory then we get paid out at 7/8.
Coventry to beat Crewe Alexandra at 4/6
We backed against Crewe midweek and were paid out for doing so as they went down 3-2 at Adams Park against Wycombe. Alex were ahead 2-1 until the 88th minute and still managed to throw it away, that must be another hit to their already low confidence levels, they’re on the road again to promotion hopefuls Coventry City on Saturday.
I talked about the Railwaymen and their defensive deficiencies in my midweek article so I won’t go over it again. They’ve basically fallen apart in September after a good start to the season.
Coventry are starting to motor now under Mark Robins, winning four of their last five including wins against Exeter and Swindon. The Sky Blues are looking good at both ends of the pitch and have been cut in from 5/6 to 4/6, I still think there’s enough juice to get involved in the hosts at the quotes.
Wolves loanee Duckens Nazon has impressed since he joined the club, scoring the winner at the Country ground on Tuesday night. He has bagged three so far this season and is looking increasingly dangerous and has a great chance to add to his tally against a poor Crewe defence. I’m going to put him up as this weeks anytime scorer selection at 15/8.
Accrington to score over 1.5 goals vs Forest Green Rovers at 10/11
“If it ain’t broke don’t fix it” right? Yes, once again I’m backing against Forest Green Rovers. I must stress that I do not have an anti-Forest Green agenda but as a punter backing against the ‘little club on the hill’ has proved a cash cow this season.
Mark Cooper’s side once again conceded 2+ on Tuesday night suffering an all too familiar heavy defeat at Cambridge. FGR have conceded over 1.5 goals upon eight occasions already this term and continue to struggle at the back, they get bullied easily and are cannon fodder for good teams, and they come up against one this Saturday in the shape of Accrington Stanley.
Stanley have seen over 1.5 team goals land in seven of their games this season and it’s no surprise when they have the partnership of Kayden Jackson and Billy Kee. The twosome have linked up tremendously well and pose different threats to each other which teams must hate playing against. If teams focus too much on the searing pace of Jackson then it allows greater space for Kee to operate and use his quality on the ball, he’s also a superb instinctive finisher in the box. Alternatively if teams focus too much on Kee then they can put cut defences open with a through ball from midfield to Jackson to run on to.
John Coleman’s men continue to play without fear away from home and have picked off the poor teams on the road in the shape of Morecambe, Port Vale and Chesterfield already this season and I rank Forest Green as a team at a similar, if not worse level. 10/11 on Stanley to notch two or more goals looks hugely attractive and that’s the way to go.