D3D4 Correspondent @tomlove_18 gives his betting to tips for the weekend’s games in League One and Two…
Charlton to beat Bury – 4/5
I’m looking to oppose Bury at every opportunity lately, their mass overhaul in the summer has crumbled early on in the season and I for one am not surprised. It’s been commonplace for the Shakers to shake things up dramatically in the summers gone by, splashing the cash at will with dreams of promotion, but inevitably it does not come to fruition.
Lee Clark is feeling the heat with his side struggling in front of goal, failing to break down Plymouth at Gigg Lane last week. They also were on the end of a hefty defeat by Rochdale midweek in the EFL trophy, confidence is fragile in the camp.
Charlton have had a decent start to the season overall and tend to do their best business at the Valley. The last thing you want to be up against when low on confidence is a forward line including Josh Magennis, Ricky Holmes and Billy Clarke. An early goal for the hosts here and it could see the Addicks comfortably see off the handicap lines. They are decent accumulator material this weekend at 4/5
Oxford vs Walsall – BTTS – 3/4
Oxford slipped up last week in a disappointing performance at Blackpool, they failed to get into the game and the tangerines won the majority of individual battles. Nevertheless, the U’s once again got on the scoresheet, something they’ve managed to do in all but one game this season. Pep Clotet will be wanting a positive response from his side and will look to exploit Walsall’s defensive frailties early on by getting the visitors on the back foot. They have to players to do it in the likes of Jon Obika, Gino Van Kessel, Rob Hall and Jack Payne to name a few.
Walsall make the visit to the Kassam stadium with an identical record in terms of goalscoring, only failing to notch in their season opener at Bury. The Saddlers have a different dimension going forward these days with wing-backs Luke Leahy and Nicky Devlin bombing on and ghosting in at the back post from crosses. Erhan Oztumer remains the fulcrum in midfield, difficult to mark and a clever operator, most of Walsall’s craft and creativity comes from ‘the Turkish Messi’. Jon Whitney’s formation does leave gaps available to exploit however, the stats prove it too with them failing to keep a single clean sheet this season. BTTS looks the way to go.
Accrington to beat Cheltenham – 6/5
Let’s talk about John Coleman. What an incredible job he has done once again at Accrington Stanley, he has his side in comfortably in the promotion running and has his team full of belief that they can have a serious tilt at making league one. Billy Kee’s nous and experience up front has been a great asset for the reds, as has the lightning pace of Kayden Jackson supporting Kee. Jackson represents a canny capture from Coleman for a team with far fewer financial resources than their league competitors, maybe this transfer will make other players consider moves to the Wham stadium. The emergence of young attacker Malik Wilks has been another surprising positive for Stanley, impressing off the bench lately scoring vital goals to get the 3 points.
Cheltenham managed to get a much needed win at home to away day strugglers Colchester last time out, but that was only their second win of the season and it promises to be another tough year for Gary Johnson’s men. What’s more, they’ve only managed to get one point on the road this season and that was at Johnson’s former club Yeovil.
6/5 about the hosts is more than a backable price and I’m on board.
Notts County to beat Lincoln City – 19/10
There will be over 4100 Lincoln City fans making the journey down the A46 to Nottingham this Saturday, an incredible effort from the Imps’ fans. Danny Cowley will be hoping to send those fans home happy with 3 points but it’s far from a given against an in form Notts County side.
Kevin Nolan’s charges have won 6, drew 1 and lost 1 so far this season, winning their last four games ‘to nil’. Nolan has built sensibly from the back, tightening a defence that was farcical last season and going forward they have a real talent in Jorge Grant, arguably the best player in the league at the moment. When looking at their record, also bearing in mind that County are at home this weekend, you’d expected them to be hovering around the even money mark, right? Well, amazingly the Magpies are trading at a best price of 19/10, that’s almost 2/1! It’s not like Lincoln are coming off the back of a win either, going down 1-0 at home to Mansfield last weekend.
I was stunned at the price on offer and believe the news of a large turnout from the visitors has swung the market way too far. The odds available also brings in an acceptable draw no bet quote of 21/20 for the more conservative punter, however I’m going ballsy and taking the 19/10 for a home win.