D3D4 Correspondent Tom Love gives his weekend betting tips in League One & Two…
Blackburn to beat AFC Wimbledon ‘to nil’ – 13/8
Pre-season favourites Blackburn Rovers are starting to motor after a slow start, winning four on the bounce in the league.
The Lancashire club have shown resolve at the back lately and we’re especially excellent at Valley Parade ending Bradford City’s formidable home record. Gaffer Tony Mowbray set up with a flat back 5 which proved extremely hard to break down, players of the calibre of Charlie Mulgrew and Paul Caddis are going to be key for Rovers should they mount a promotion bid. Last time out at Ewood Park they put four past MK Dons, Bradley Dack, Dominic Samuel and Marcus Antonsson are now showing their quality and the latter has four goals in four games. The on-loan Leeds man will be determined to show the coaching set up across the Pennines what they’re missing out on, having bagged in his last two outings Antonsson is our anytime goalscorer pick at a price of 15/8.
Toothless AFC Wimbledon are the visitors on Saturday and have lacked attacking flair and potency, only scoring four goals all season. What’s more, Neil Ardley’s troops have lost all four games this season to nil. Ardley drafted in Harry Forrester from Rangers in a bid to add some craft going forward but it’s hard to see the Dons threatening Blackburn’s stout defence this weekend.
Walsall vs Peterborough – over 2.5 goals – 4/5
Games involving Walsall this season have also involved goals, an average of almost 3.5 a game. This is also the case for opponents Peterborough with their league games involving on average 3 goals a game.
The Saddlers, who conceded three in the first half against Bradford City a few weeks back were dismantled in a shocking first half at Rotherham last time out, conceding four in the first half an hour. Manager Jon Whitney put it down to fundamental lack of basic defending but some fans have questioned his tactical ability to set up his team from the get go. The M6 club did need strengthening in attacking areas and Whitney brought in Tyler Roberts and Dan Agyei on loan from West Brom and Burnley respectively and they look well stocked in that department now.
Peterborough got back to winning ways midweek with a victory over MK Dons, going forward Posh are always going to be dangerous. Even in their home defeat to Bradford they outshot their opponents 20-9. Grant McCann’s front foot philosophy has worked well for his side this term and currently has them in the automatic promotion spots and I wouldn’t put anyone off the 8/5 about an away win here given the confidence levels of both teams. However I’m going to play goals and back over 2.5 at 4/5, this is a value play given the records for goals for both sides this season, a joint average of around 3.25 goals a game should make the price on overs more of a 13/20 shot.
Exeter to beat Crewe – 21/20
Exeter continue to top the League two table with a great display of character coming from behind to beat Barnet courtesy of a 94th minute Jayden Stockley tap in. The Grecians pressed well from midfield and won the ball back in dangerous areas of the pitch and this types of wins will give boss Paul Tisdale real hope that his side can continue their good form long-term. It’s hard to back against a side that has won six out of their seven games irrelevant of their prospective opposition.
Crewe were very poor going forward at home to Cambridge on Tuesday night out-shot 17-7 to a defensive minded side is not what coach David Artell would’ve wanted to see. A surprising result given the Railwaymen tore Chesterfield to shreds in their home game before that.
When a team is flying like Exeter are at the minute you have to get on board with the momentum and they will hopefully go out and play with confidence in front of their home fans and I can see them adding another W to their form guide.
Lincoln (draw no bet) vs Mansfield – 5/6
Lincoln have settled into life back in League Two very comfortably, sitting in the play off positions and just one defeat to their name. Danny Cowley has recruited well with players boasting strong league 1 experience in the likes of Michael Bostwick and Billy Knott, they also have a threat off the bench with the pace of Josh Ginelly and the aerial prowess of Matt Rhead. The Imps also welcome back Matt Green after his suspension kept him out of the game at Forest Green last week. Green transferred from Mansfield too Lincoln in the summer and could be a mug bet at 21/10 to notch against his former employers.
Steve Evans’ Mansfield were one of the favourites for promotion before the season kicked off but it hasn’t gone all to plan so far. The Stags have managed to dominate games without getting the three points on the board, four draws so far highlights their need for a greater cutting edge in the final third. Evans confirmed that a few of his players picked up knocks through the week and they go to Sincil Bank without a fully fit squad.
I fancy Lincoln here and are available at 8/5 on the outrights but Mansfield’s penchant for draws slightly puts me off going all out on the hosts. The angle I’m taking is the 5/6 available for Lincoln ‘draw no bet’, this means should it end a point a piece our stakes will be returned however if the Imps take the victory we get paid out at 5/6.