With the international break upon us, leagues One and Two take centre stage from a national perspective. D3D4 Bradford Correspondent @Tomlove_18 takes us through some eye catching bets for the weekend.
Gillingham vs Shrewsbury – Over 2.5 goals – 19/20
Shrewsbury fans will be delighted about their sides quick start to the season. Backed by many to struggle, Paul Hurst’s side have defied expectations with a more expansive approach added to an impressive transfer window. Adding the likes of Stefan Payne, Carlton Morris and Ben Godfrey to the squad shows that Salop mean business this season.
Ben Mayhew (@Experimental361) excellent data analysis shows Shrewsbury quite high in both expected goals scored (1.9 a match) and expected goals conceded (1.4 a match), these statistics bode well for a goals based bet here especially when tallied up with Gillingham’s stats.
The Kent club have an expected goals scored figure of 1.6 and expected goals conceded of 1.9. This explains why Shrewsbury have been chalked up as favourites, but it’s hard to back the Shrews at the prices when taking into account home advantage.
Rumours of unrest at Priestfield continue, with gaffer Ady Pennock coming in for criticism over his man management. Ex Captain Josh Wright has left the club citing Pennock and the backroom staff as the problem. On the pitch however they are improving going forward. Big striker Tom Eaves grabbing a hat trick in last weeks ding dong battle with Southend standing out.
The way to go is goals then, based on the chances created and conceded by both sides this season it’s set up for a goal heavy game. Over 2.5 goals has been set at 19/20, a shade of odds-on and I’m happy to get on board at them quotes.
Doncaster vs Peterborough – Peterborough (Double Chance) – 5/6
Posh are flying at the moment, back-to-back 4-1 wins at Bristol Rovers and Northampton can be no fluke. To see them at odds of around 3/1 to win is surprising. Grant McCann’s charges have been given another boost with maverick winger Marcus Maddison penning a new three year deal at the club, Maddison is a key cog in that attacking quartet alongside Junior Morais, Gwion Edwards and Jack Marriott.
I expected Donny to get something from AFC Wimbledon last week but they seemed to lack creativity and energy and were consequently picked off. Gaffer Darren Ferguson will know this Peterborough team very well having been at the club for a few years and will want to make a statement by bouncing back, however you will be a brave man if you backed against this Posh side, and the prices on the outrights allows us to get two results on our side backing Peterborough to win or draw in the ‘double chance’ market at a tasty 5/6.
Exeter vs Newport – Over 2.5 goals 10/11
Mike Flynn’s Newport army make to trip over the River Severn to take on a well fancied Exeter side this weekend. The Exiles were backed on this column last week to be involved in a goal laden game and it wouldn’t be surprising to see another one at St James’ Park on Saturday. Frank Nouble is loving life in South Wales and finally looks like he has found a club to re-start his career. The well travelled Nouble picked up a quick-fire hat trick against Chesterfield and when he’s in form he is a major handful for any defence, especially in league 2. Newport are well stocked in attack but are still vulnerable at the back, something that Paul Tisdale’s Exeter side could exploit.
The sharply dressed Tisdale watched his side come out victorious in a manic 7 goal thriller at Cheltenham last weekend. Two goals from the ever reliable Rueben Reid were added to by a fantastic free kick from Jordan Moore-Taylor and a penalty by Jake Taylor after a farcical bit of dilly-dallying from Jamie Grimes led to him dragging down Taylor.
So, five goals in the Newport game last week, seven in the Exeter game last week, surely goals is the way to go? Betfred have over 2.5 goals chalked up at 10/11 which is hard to turn down given both teams heavy attacking artillery and questionable defences.
Wycombe vs Forest Green – Both Teams To Score – 4/5
In seasons gone by Gareth Ainsworth’s Wycombe side have built on a solid defence and 1-0 wins, especially at home. This season however shows the complete opposite with goals flying in at both ends. The Chairboys boast a 100% BTTS record this season, not what many were expecting but after losing centre-half Aaron Pierre to Northampton their defence seems to have crumbled. Wycombe gaffer ‘Wild Thing’ has been relying on the large frame of Adebayo Akinfenwa to cause problems for opposition defences and it’s easy to see why, ‘The Beast’ has kicked off the season in fine form and is a serious threat from long throws and Joe Jacobson’s wicked free-kicks.
Football league newcomers Forest Green Rovers are the visitors to Adams Park and they’ve had a mediocre start to the season in terms of results. The departure of Ethan Pinnock from the heart of their defence seems to have made FGR leakier at the back, conceding 12 in 4 games. Going forward, however, the Nailsworth side have impressed. Charismatic owner Dale Vince rejected several high bids from clubs for striker Christian Doidge and he has been repaid with 3 goals already and he can cause problems for Wycombe’s defence, he’s 12/5 to net at anytime in the match.
Both Teams to score is the main selection here though at 4/5.