The D3D4 betting expert @tomlove_18 is back with his hot tips ahead of the action in League One & Two this weekend…
Oxford to beat Bury at 23/20
For some reason the bookies keep pricing Oxford up at generous prices, especially at home. They were outsiders a few weeks ago at the Kassam vs Blackpool and they collected all 3 points in that one. I was initially expecting odds of around 5/6, 8/11 for the hosts here but we can get best price 23/20 with MarathonBet which looks supremely attractive against rock bottom Bury.
Getting any team at home to Bury at odds against quotes will attract the Punters in. This is more of a bet on Bury to lose than Oxford to win, the Shakers have been terrible all season and it’s seriously worrying times at Gigg Lane, especially considering the money they threw at this season. Chris Lucketti didn’t see his team score a league goal during his tenure, he left earlier this week and it leaves the hierarchy at the club in a desperate scamper to find a manager who is well versed in getting teams out of a mess. The individual quality is there when looking throughout their squad but they cannot function as a team.
Oxford, as I’ve mentioned previously, are majorly inconsistent, their record of (W10, D8, L10) says it all really. Surely Pep Clotet will be targeting this one as a massive chance to get 3 points on the board and kick start a play off push. I was impressed by the capture of Liverpool midfielder Cameron Brannagan by the U’s, his loan at Fleetwood didn’t go to plan but he was a player that Wigan and Bradford were targeting in the summer so it’s a real coup for Clotet. There’s no doubt that Oxford look better with both Wes Thomas and Jon Obika up front, there’s goals there but their defence isn’t all that trustworthy. However I’ve mentioned the profligacy that Bury have shown in front of goal this season and the U’s should outscore them here.
Bristol Rovers vs Bradford City – Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to score at 21/20
Bradford City look to continue their excellent away form this season when making the long trip down to The Memorial Stadium. The Bantams chairmen have put on free coach travel for City fans wanting to go and back their team, a great gesture and one they will hoping to come back with three points from.
Goals is the angle I want to attack though. 9 out of 14 Bradford away games have seen this bet land. It’s also landed in 9 out of 13 of Bristol Rovers home games which equates to a collective total of 18/27 games which makes the 21/20 on offer a value price.
Rovers haven’t been the most watertight at the back this season and they have had injuries at centre half. Going forward they do have threats though in Rory Gaffney and Elliot Harrison as well as new singing Bernad Mensah. Losing Billy Bodin to Preston is a major blow however, his creativity and class going forward will be missed.
Bradford City have had injury problems of their own. Strikers Charlie Wyke, Dom Poleon and Alex Jones have all been out injured in the last couple of weeks, Full backs Adam Chicksen and Tony McMahon have also been out as well as keeper Colin Doyle. It’s been embarrassing to see the level of overreaction to a few recent defeats given so many of their first teamers are out, Stuart McCall has done a sterling job this term in my opinion. Defensively though, the Bantams look nowhere near as solid as they used to under Phil Parkinson, that has been countered with an increase in attacking output however., which usually makes for entertaining affairs. The recent 4-3 win against Rochdale highlighted that to a tee.
Bradford are usually a stick-on for a goal on the road but their defence can’t be trusted, let’s hope for a goal laden game.
Luton -1.5 asian handicap vs Morecambe at 11/10
Luton have gone through a slight sticky patch recently but I’m backing them to get back on track as they welcome Morecambe to Kenilworth Road. Nathan Jones’ side have blazed this division and have won by more than a single goal upon 8 occasions at their Bedfordshire base. The attacking options at the club are way beyond what any other league two club could wish to have, who knows, if they continue in this vein and keep their key players a double promotion could be on the cards.
Jim Bentley continues to do an excellent job considering the minimal facilities at his disposal. He has seen veteran winger and football league maverick Kevin Ellison hit top form recently and the loan addition of Callum Lang from Wigan have given a boost to the Shrimps. However, most of their good work has been on the Lancashire coast, it’s a different story on their travels. They have lost 7 out of their last 10 away games and this promises to be their toughest trip of the season.
With the quality differential between the two teams it’s hard to look past a comfortable home victory here. Odds against for the hosts to win by 2 or more goals looks a good selection.
Yeovil ‘Draw no bet’ vs Chesterfield at 17/20
It’s a bottom of the league clash at Huish Park on Saturday afternoon and I’m wanting to keep the hosts onside in this one. Yeovil played some excellent football in their FA Cup win over Bradford to earn a tie against Manchester United in the Fourth round. Wingers Jordan Green and Otis Khan were full of energy and ran the Bantams ragged all afternoon. Darren Way has utilised the loan market to bring in Marcus Barnes from the well thought of Southampton academy, as well as Cory Whelan from Liverpool to add depth to the squad. Sam Surridge is a player that has impressed up front with Francois Zoko and the glovers also have a major set piece threat with the height of centre half Omar Sowumni.
Chesterfield pulled off a great win at home to Luton last time out however prior to that win they had lost 5/6 and drew the other at home to Colchester, they’ve also lost all 5 of their last away games in all competitions. Their lack of goals is a worry and that is mainly down to Kristian Dennis not showing the form he was earlier in the season.
With this game being played off a scratch 0 start I’m more than happy to get with the Somerset outfit in the Draw no bet market at just under evens. This selection will see us Profit should Yeovil win but if the game ends all square then our stakes are returned. The only way we lose is if Chesterfield get the win.