The D3D4 Betting expert @tomlove_18 is back with his picks ahead of the weekend fixtures in League One and Two…
Gillingham 0 Asian Handicap at 10/11
Since Steve Lovell took the gig full time at Priestfield the Gills have seen an upturn in their points per game average. It’s by no means the most talented squad in the league so the job Lovell has done so far is highly commendable, I personally had Gills to go down in my pre season predictions and they could still get seriously dragged into the mire.
This weekend, though, the Kent club host an equally thin squad in the form of AFC Wimbledon. Neil Ardley has seen his side struggle to score goals this season but the recent spurt of goals from Lyle Taylor will have put a smile on fans’ faces, they sit in the drop zone and have lost 3 of their last 4 games in League 1. It’s hard to back them against a Gills side that have taken 7 points in their last 3 outings.
Now, all things considered, I’d expect Gillingham to be priced up at around the 5/4 mark however the traders have this game as a pick’em! 13/8 each of two just seems strange, these prices indicate that, should this game be played on neutral territory, Wimbledon would be clear favourites. Work that one out.
The drawback to backing Gills is their penchant for draws, 9 in total this season. However, these prices allow us to back them off a 0 scratch start on the asian handicap at a shade under even money. This is effectively the same as the ‘draw no bet’ market but slightly better odds. If Gills take the victory we are paid out at the odds given, if it ends all square then our stakes will be returned.
Peterborough to win and both teams to score vs MK Dons at 10/3
I was in attendance at Valley Parade to watch Peterborough continuously scythe through the Bradford City defence. Their pace going forward was, at times, frightening. Jack Marriott continued his fine form showing good movement in the box for his first as well as pace to run on and lob Rouven Sattelmaier in the City goal. Marriott may be getting all the headlines but the most impressive performance came from his strike partner Danny Lloyd, he was a constant thorn in the Bantams’ back line, he scored and hit the woodwork and displayed superb direct running and dribbling along with a deadly finish. Marriott is understandably favourite in the anytime scorer market at 6/5 but I’m going to back the ex Stockport striker Lloyd to notch in this encounter at 11/5.
Posh are looking the real deal now and their assault on the play-offs is in full flow. MK Dons however have disappointed this season, I’ll put my hands up and admit I had them as one of my dark horses this season after a strong end to the 16/17 campaign under then new boss Robbie Neilson. MK have lacked consistency and failed to keep a fit squad which has inevitably hindered their season progression, when at full strength it could be argued they have a top 6 team. They’ve failed to win in their last 4 games which included a disappointing defeat at home to Plymouth, the last thing the want is a visit from the leagues hottest striking duo.
There are a few angles to consider here, the more conservative punter might well look at Peterborough to score over 1.5 goals at 21/20 but I’m going to chance the bulbous 10/3 about Posh winning whilst conceding. For all MK Dons’ faults they have been getting on the scoresheet in most games this season and in Kieran Agard, Chuks Aneke and Osman Sow they do posses an attacking threat. However I feel that when Peterborough are on it they are seriously on it and I think they can get another 3 points in Buckinghamshire.
Notts County 0 Asian Handicap vs Swindon at 87/100
Hosts Swindon were obliterated 5-0 in their last outing at the county ground by table toppers Luton and it’s at their Wiltshire base that they fail to deliver. Losing 7 of their home games this season it is hard to see how this young Robins side can get something out of this game, recent 5 game form in all competitions have seen (D1,L4) so confidence will be fragile.
Notts County are sitting pretty in 2nd place at the minute and have decent away form with a (W7, D4,L2) record on the road. Their last trip saw them hammer Morecambe 4-1 with a couple of goals from star player Jorge Grant (who is an interesting 2/1 to score anytime). In order to sustain their automatic promotion push Kevin Nolan will be highlighting this as a very winnable game.
County are an attractive 13/8 to win this one but with 3 of their last 4 away from home ending all square I’ll chuck in a bit of insurance and take the same route as the Gillingham bet. Notts County off a scratch 0 start on the asian handicap at the strange price of 87/100.
Lincoln to win and under 3.5 goals vs Forest Green Rovers – 13/10
Lincoln are enjoying the festive fixtures and will be looking to sign off their staggering 2017 in style. 5 wins out of their last 6 has got the Imps faithful murmuring about the thought of automatic promotion, their defence has been solid this season and now a few more goals are being added to their game. Danny Cowley has seen his side win a handsome 7 times this term at Sincil Bank and many will be looking at them as acca material at 4/7.
Forest Green have stalled after their decent upturn with three defeats ‘to nil’ in a row. It’s seems that when marksman and fan of the column Christian Doidge doesn’t net then nobody does for FGR. Given Lincoln’s home form you’d be hard pressed to find anyone with faith in backing the away side in any form. Mark Cooper will look to set up tight like he did at Coventry and Notts County, I just think the Imps will have too much here.
As mentioned, Lincoln look fair at 4/7 but I’m willing to boost that to 13/10 by throwing under 3.5 goals into the mix.