The D3D4 betting Maverick @tomlove_18 is back with another weekend betting preview ahead of the action in League One & Two..
Rotherham -1 Asian handicap vs Gillingham at 11/13
In pre-season I was pessimistic when it came to Rotherham’s chances of bouncing back to the championship, low on confidence and without adding much more depth to their squad I’d expected another season to forget for the Millers. That prediction has been made to look daft, Paul Warne and his side have shown real conviction when going forward, especially at their New York stadium base.
The South Yorkshire side have produced results of 5-1, 5-1, 5-0 and 2-0 at home, beating the handicap comfortably. Kieffer Moore has really impressed, not only effective in the air he’s excellent with the ball at his feet and has a predatory anticipation in the box that has seen him bag 11 goals already this season, a superb return from the Ipswich loanee. In addition, the pace of Jon Taylor has regularly cut through defences when found midfield. I’d expect Taylor to partner Moore this weekend after the Millers adopted a 4-5-1 formation last time out at Oxford. If so they both provides different threats for the Gillingham backline.
Gills chairman Paul Scally is yet to appoint a full time manager after the long awaited departure of Ady Pennock. Peter Taylor held the reigns for a couple of games and now Steve Lovell has been given the gig part time, it’s a messy situation at an institutional level for the Kent club and performances on the pitch have failed to seriously improve.
Thomas Holy has been the shining light for the Gills this season, as impressive as the Czech keeper has been it goes a long way to show how easy it has been to create chances them. He’s managed to keep defeats to a reasonably creditable scoreline but it’s not something that’s sustainable. Ben Mayhew’s (@experimental361) informative performance data metrics show them to have comfortably conceded the most shots in the league at 17 a match on average and have an expected goals conceded figure of 2.1 per game and an expected goals scored figure of around 1.2. Compare this to the Millers who’s figures are at 1.3 and 2.1 respectively.
Lovell also saw his side lose to a struggling Northampton side last week and they’re going to be up against a much more potent side this weekend. If Holy isn’t on top form then this could be another cakewalk for the hosts. I’m backing them on the -1 Asian handicap line at best price 11/13 with BetVictor, this selection will see us collect if Rotherham win by 2 goals or more but also gives us an insurance blanket if the Millers win by exactly a goal, in such a case our stakes will be returned.
Plymouth +0.25 Asian handicap vs Rochdale at 1/1
We backed Derek Adams’ side last week to get something at AFC Wimbledon and they went and grabbed three points, despite being under the cosh for large spells of the game at Kingsmeadow. They take on Rochdale at Home Park this weekend hoping to take the confidence of that aforementioned win and get on a winning run. Star man Graham Carey has started to really turn up in recent weeks and that is key for the Pilgrims, it was his mazy run and clever through ball that set up Joel Grant for the winner last week. Adams has also added steel to their midfield bringing in the rangey Toumani Diagouraga in on loan, an eye catching capture.
Rochdale have had a hot and cold campaign so far and their inconsistency has seen them fail to go on a decent run this term. I was surprised to see that Dale haven’t won away from home in the league this season, another reason for Plymouth to feel confident. I like Keith Hill and he continues to do a fine job despite the losses of Peter Vincenti and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing in the summer but at the prices I’m more than happy to get the Pilgrims onside.
Looking at the Asian handicap lines I’m slightly surprised to see Plymouth given a quarter goal start (+0.25) at even money. This looks a nice angle to attack and means we make profit should Plymouth avoid defeat. For this who aren’t familiar with how Asian handicaps work this particular selection sees half our stake going on them ‘draw no bet’ and the other half goes on them ‘double chance’. Full payout for a Plymouth win and a half payout if it ends all square, the only way we lose is if Dale do what they have failed to do this season and win away from home.
Yeovil vs Stevenage – BTTS at 4/5
Two teams with porous defences meet in Somerset on Saturday in the form of Yeovil and Stevenage. Given both sides results this season BTTS has landed 19/30 times, more often than not and both sides will feel like this is a winnable game. More recently, both sides have seen BTTS cop in their last three in all competitions.
Visitors Stevenage hit back with 3-2 win against Accrington after the 7-1 drubbing at Luton the week before. Many would’ve expected them to go and beat Forest Green at Broadhall Way but they lost 2-1 in that one, disappointing for gaffer Darren Sarll. Going forward they have good options though with Matt Godden, Danny Newton and Kyle Wooton up front with Tom Pett and Ben Kennedy out wide, that’s a high quality attacking arsenal at their disposal. I’d expect them to score against a Yeovil rearguard that has leaked on average 2 goals a game this season.
The Glovers aren’t too shoddy in front of goal however. Olufela Olomola has proved an inspired loan capture from the well regarded Southampton academy, a powerful striker. Francois Zoko is also good for a goal or too especially with the strong service from the flanks with Otis Khan providing the ammunition. I’d also back them to score against a Stevenage defence that has conceded 11 in 3 games.
This is really a case of two poor defences and two relatively strong attacks, and therefore this should produce goals. Both teams to score is a fair price at 4/5 and that’s the main bet here.
Accrington to win and BTTS vs Barnet at 3/1
A chunky priced selection to round off this weeks article. Accrington have been a little inconsistent of late but should have enough to get past an out of form Barnet side. Rossi Eames is under pressure all of a sudden after failing to win in their last 9, the Bees have had injury problems and it doesn’t help that they have a relatively thin squad. Having said that Barnet have scored in 10 of their last 11 games and are always good for a goal even without main man John Akinde, the North Londoners can call upon Jamal Campbell-Ryce, Simeone Akinola and Shaquile Coulthirst for firepower, not bad. Defensively though the Bees have been fragile and it’s something Stanley boss John Coleman will be targeting. I’ve talked about the qualities of their front players in a few columns already but it’s how they play as a collective that is most impressive, a real unit.
Accrington are attractive at odds against quotes but I’m hunting for a bigger price so will through BTTS into the mix as well boosting it to a hefty 3/1.