The D3D4 betting maverick @tomloe_18 bring you his betting tips ahead of the weekend fixtures in League One and Two…
Plymouth +0.75 Asian Handicap at AFC Wimbledon – 7/8
I was surprised to see this game priced up as it has been with Wimbledon as short as 7/10. There seems to be an overreaction in the markets after the Wombles beat Rotherham last time out but we know the Millers away form is in stark contrast to their excellent home form. Let’s remember that this is a team that has scored only 10 goals in 14 games, it took them until after that 85th minute to score their second and third goals against Rotherham.
Lyle Taylor finally came to the fore grabbing a hat trick in that game after failing to notch all season, Neil Ardley finally granted fans their wish playing him down the middle instead out wide and he showed why he should be there. Harry Forrester also impressed midweek and can cause problems if given space but if Plymouth do a job on those two then it’s hard to see where the goals are going to come from. Expected goals data doesn’t look strong for them too, so I can’t really find a solid reason why they’re as short as they are in the market. This selection is a price play more than anything.
Plymouth have had a meagre start to life in league one, lacking creativity and a squad lacking strength in depth. However, they’ve picked up two creditable 1-1 draws against table toppers Shrewsbury and Blackburn games recently where they showed fight and determination to keep hold of the point, especially at Ewood Park where they were under the cosh. I can see both these teams down there come the end of the season and it already feels like a six pointer.
It’s also true that the Pilgrims are struggling on the data but the disparity in the odds has drawn me to get them onside, I’d expected the 1X2 to be more like 6/5, 11/5, 5/2. The odds allow us to back Plymouth off a +0.75 start on the asian handicap, if they avoid defeat we’ll get a full payout, even if the Devon side lose by a goal half our stake will be refunded.
Doncaster vs Walsall – BTTS – 13/15
A staple of the At Odds column. Walsall have had BTTS land in all their games this season. We back it every week and it always wins, why stop? Especially at an attractive price.
Luton to beat Crawley – 13/15
Luton are showing everyone why they were league 2 pre season favourites now, top of the league, scoring for fun and playing with a great deal of ostentation. Winning 4-1 away at third placed Exeter showed they mean business, prior to that they demolished Stevenage 7-1 and also won at Accrington, a highly commendable feat. Danny Hylton epitomises everything positive that is coming out of Kenilworth Road, he is a player on fire at the minute and has made a name for his riling of opposition fans and panenka penalties. He has 7 in his last 6 in the league and he’s best price 5/4 with PaddyPower and he’s this weeks anytime goalscorer.
Crawley have surprisingly improved in the six weeks or so picking up a few wins but they were against poor teams in Morecambe and Yeovil and they’ve lacked serious consistency. Harry Kewell has tightened up the defence in recent times after a shoddy start to the campaign but its majorly difficult to see them keeping out a free scoring Hatters side that have won their last two games of aggregate of 11-2.
Luton look a decent bet here and they could well shorten come kick off, but at the time of writing they are trading at just below the even money mark. I’m happy to be with them this week.
Exeter vs Port Vale – Over 2.5 – 10/11
Port Vale have seen a much needed resurgence since club legends John Rudge and Neil Aspin came back to Vale Park in director of football and management capacities respectively, the whole club has had a real boost and fans are gaining optimism after a really slow start to life back in League 2. Aspin has focussed on getting more balls into the box and utilising the aerial strengths of Tom Pope, a rejuvenated Pope is a handful for any league 2 defence, especially an Exeter backline which leaked four at St James’ Park on Tuesday.
The Grecians are struggling to keep consistency after a phenomenal run earlier in the season which saw them top the table, of course that run was unsustainable but there’s still a strong squad at Paul Tisdale’s disposal and when you can call upon Reuben Reid, Jayden Stockley and Lee Holmes they’re always good for a goal.
Four of the last five Valiants’ games have seen over 2.5 goals land and they’re playing with verve and confidence but Exeter fans will be expecting a rebound from that 4-1 defeat to Luton.