D3D4 Correspondent and betting Maverick Tom Love gives his tips ahead of the Tuesday night fixtures in League One and Two…
Wigan Athletic -1 vs Plymouth Argyle at 11/10
Wigan were heavily fancied to make a swift return to the championship this season given their well stacked squad. They are now showing their quality and are dominating games with some superb performance data, @MarkOhaire pointed out that the Latics have an average expected goals (xG) supremacy of a whopping 1.57, displaying the constant threat they possess. It has to be said that they did go down 3-2 in a thriller at Peterborough at the weekend, but Posh are a side that pose a much stronger attacking artillery compared to their next opponents Plymouth.
The Pilgrims are struggling to adapt to life in league 1, picking up a single win from their first 9 games. Derek Adams’ side seem bereft of confidence, lack quality going forward and are also failing to keep the goals out at the other end. They will make the long trip up to Lancashire without centre half Sonny Bradley who saw red after lashing out in a ridiculous off the ball incident against Doncaster at the weekend.
Wigan should bounce back here and will hope for a comfortable victory against a poor Plymouth side. I will take the 11/10 on the hosts overcoming the -1 handicap, this bet requires the latics to win by over one goal.
Peterborough United to score over 1.5 team goals vs Oldham Athletic at 19/20
As mentioned earlier Peterborough pulled off a great result at home to Wigan on Saturday courtesy of a last minute Jack Marriott strike. Posh have historically set up in an attacking formation and make games open, usually meaning high scoring games. Grant McCann’s men have scored 2 or more goals in 6/9 league games so far this season and they travel to an managerless Oldham side who are leaking goals for fun.
After a 5-1 drubbing at Rotherham on Saturday the Oldham board decided to relieve gaffer John Sheridan of his duties with his side bottom of the table with four points from nine games. Sheridan has been a firefighting manager, saving clubs from relegation in the second half of the season, however this term has seen his side look completely the opposite to ‘Shezza’ teams in the past. It’s true that they have conceded two or more goals in every game this season, not a Sheridan staple, his sides are usually set up with a rigid back four and two holding midfielders.
So, Oldham have conceded 2+ goals in 9/9 games this season and Peterborough have scored 2+ in 6/9 games this season meaning this bet would’ve landed in 15/18 games collectively. Odds of 19/20 are available on a repeat this Tuesday night making it a value price, it looks like the perfect angle to attack.
Wycombe Wanderers to beat Crewe Alexandra at 1/1
What has happened to Crewe Alexandra?! After a strong start to the season, the Railwaymen are seriously struggling at both ends of the pitch, going down 5-0 at home to an out of sorts Carlisle side, they also only recorded a meagre 0.2 on the expected goals model. Toothless. They have also lost four out of their last five games without scoring and it’s difficult to rely on their defence making them perfect opponents for Wycombe this midweek.
The Chairboys have had a steady start to the season and lie in 10th place, but they possess the nous to put poor teams to bed as shown in their wins against Forest Green and Colchester. Gareth Ainsworth opted for experience in the transfer window bringing in Craig Mackail-Smith and Nathan Tyson. The former has been very impressive and has a new lease of life whereas Tyson is back to full fitness and both can help aid the obvious aerial threat of Bayo Akinfenwa.
If Wycombe are going to be serious play off contenders then they will put this down as one they should be winning and they look a fair price at evens to beat a Crewe side low on confidence.
Cambridge United to beat Forest Green Rovers at 9/10
Forest Green are seriously struggling to adapt to their first foray into the football league, rock bottom of the table on 5 points with the worst goal difference in the league. Defensively FGR have been a mess and seem to be missing centre half Ethan Pinnock who went to Barnsley over the summer, its schoolboy stuff and it’s obvious for all to see but they don’t seem to be rectifying it.
Cambridge on the other hand have started to pick up a couple of results and will have pinpointed this game as one the need to win. Their better form has coincided with Shaun Derry playing both Jabo Ibehre and Uche Ikpeazu up front rather than just one or the other, this gives a greater headache to the opposition defence because they’re both strong, physical players.
This selection is more of me backing Forest Green to lose than Cambridge to win as you will be hard pressed to find someone who has faith backing FGR in any shape or form at the minute. At just shy of even money I expect the U’s to pile on more misery for Mark Cooper’s men.